View
229
Download
0
Category
Preview:
Citation preview
8/13/2019 Majumdar Presentation
1/37
Science & Engineering for a Sustainable
Energy Future
Arun Majumdar
VIRGINIA SUMMIT ON SCIENCE, ENGINEERING & MEDICINE
November 15, 2013
8/13/2019 Majumdar Presentation
2/37
Google Confidential and Proprietary
Step 2: Green ourconsumption by usingrenewable energy
Step 3: Offsetwhat we cannoteliminate
Step 1: Reduce
energy consumptionthrough efficiency
100% CARBONNEUTRALITY:3-STEPPROCESS FOR GETTING THERE
8/13/2019 Majumdar Presentation
3/37
8/13/2019 Majumdar Presentation
4/37
300 Horsepower
100,000 Horsepower
10,000 Horsepower
Industrial Revolution: Horse Power to Horsepower
8/13/2019 Majumdar Presentation
5/37
Global per Capita GDP
1750s: 0.7B
2013: 7.0B
2050: 9.0B
2100: 10.0B
8/13/2019 Majumdar Presentation
6/37
Oil & Gas ReservesGlobal Oil Reserves
BP Statistical Review of World Energy (2012)
Global Gas Reserves w/o US Shale
8/13/2019 Majumdar Presentation
7/37
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
$300B/yr
US Total Oil
Consumption
Thousandsof
Barrelsperday
ImportedOilP
ercentage
US Imports
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Nominal
Real
Price($/barrel)
Global Oil Price & Economic Unpredictability
US Balance of Payments
8/13/2019 Majumdar Presentation
8/37
Averages & Extremes
Hansen, Sato, Ruedy, Perception of climate change, PNAS, Aug. 6 (2012)
8/13/2019 Majumdar Presentation
9/37
Cumulative CO2emissions since Industrial Revolution
About 1 Trillion Tons
How much more CO2can we emit based on known
fossil fuel reserves?About 3 Trillion Tons
75-100 yearsWorth $10s of Trillion!!
8/13/2019 Majumdar Presentation
10/37
The Stone Age did not end because we ran out stones
Sheikh Ahmed Yamani, former Oil Minister of Saudi Arabia
We transitioned to better solutions
8/13/2019 Majumdar Presentation
11/37
Time
Cost
Performance
existing technology
Enhance U.S. economic,
energy & environmental
security
Ensure U.S. leadin advancedenergy technologies
Technologies that lead tofundamentally new learning curves
Steam-powered
Cugnot (1769)
Benz Motorwagen
(1885)
Ford Model T
(1914)
DISRUPTIVE
TRANSFORMATIONAL
Multiple
shots atgoal
8/13/2019 Majumdar Presentation
12/37
Energy Systems
US Department of Energy. Report on the First Quadrennial Technology Review. (US DOE, 2011).
8/13/2019 Majumdar Presentation
13/37
Courtesy: Mark Zoback, Stanford
10-100 nm pores
Shale Gas Extraction
Coupled Chemistry, Transport, Mechanics
8/13/2019 Majumdar Presentation
14/37
Levelized Cost of Electricity Generation
4-10
NGCC
Source: Sustainable Energy in America 2013 Factbook, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Jan (2013)
8-14
Coal
8-14
Nuclear
8-15
Geothermal
Sunshot
2020
12-18
5-12
Wind
Distributed & Modular 5 cents/kWh
8/13/2019 Majumdar Presentation
15/37
Courtesy: E. J. Moniz (DOE)
8/13/2019 Majumdar Presentation
16/37
Advanced Research Projects Agency Energy
Rare Earth Free Hard Magnetic Materials for Generators &Motors
16
Fe16N2
Holy Grail of MagnetsBHmax= 134 MGOe
8/13/2019 Majumdar Presentation
17/37
Fully Installed Residential PV ($/W)
Fully Installed Utility PV ($/W)
Courtesy: E. J. Moniz (DOE)
8/13/2019 Majumdar Presentation
18/37
Single Junction Theoretical Limit
III-V Based 28.8%
efficient solar cells on
plastic substrate
Alta Devices
Solar Cell Efficiency
8/13/2019 Majumdar Presentation
19/37
Grid-Scale Storage (GWh Scale)
$100/kWh
$10/kWh
$1000/kWh
First Cost
Others
90Ah 12V battery
Zn-MnO2Battery Highlights
Demonstrated cycles: 2,500 Projected cycles: 5,000
Prototype cost: $300/kWh
Cost at scale:
8/13/2019 Majumdar Presentation
20/37
G G G
Grid
L L L L L L L L
Distributed Load
One-wayflow
Tesla Edison
$100B/yr lost in
power outages
8/13/2019 Majumdar Presentation
21/37
Cyber-Physical Security
Boston Marathon Bombing
April 15, 2013
120 shots fired at the radiators of only
energized transformers
>50,000 gallons of cooling oil leaked Fiber optic & telephone cables cut 15
mins before the shootings911 disabled
2am, April 16, 2013
PG&E Metcalf600kV Substation
8/13/2019 Majumdar Presentation
22/37
8/13/2019 Majumdar Presentation
23/37
T h E i C
8/13/2019 Majumdar Presentation
24/37
PV
Diesel
Grid
Electricity cost $/kWh delivered, utility-scale,based on India
Li-ion storage cost ($/kWh delivered)200-400 Wh/kg (cell); 100-200 Wh/kg (pack)
Lead acid (40Wh/kg)
0.20-0.40
0.07-0.20
0.47
SSA
LatAm
China
India
Developed world
Mobile penetration Subscriptions per capita
Wide Bandgap Semiconductor (SiC,GaN) Power Electronics300x size reduction in 25W AC-DC
SSL Driver
Techno-Economic Convergence
Networked Distributed
Secure Computing
8/13/2019 Majumdar Presentation
25/37
Transportation
58.8 Light Duty
Vehicles
Buses
Trucks22.2
Air
7.8
WaterRail Pipeline
5
FuelGasoline/DieselNatural Gas
Biofuel
Electricity
Power TrainIC Engine
Batteries/Electric Motor
Fuel Cells
Hybrids
Light Weighting
8/13/2019 Majumdar Presentation
26/37
26Courtesy: E. J. Moniz (DOE)
8/13/2019 Majumdar Presentation
27/37
27
40 400 4000
Pb-acid
NiMH
Li-ion
Zn-air
Mg-ion
Adv Li-ion
Li-S
Li-air
Practical energy density (Wh/kg)
27
Today
$500/kWh
BEEST
ARPA-E
$250/kWh
21040 400 4000
Pb-acid
NiMH
Li-ion
Zn-air
Mg-ion
Adv Li-ion
Li-S
Li-air
Practical energy density (Wh/kg)
Vehicle ElectrificationElectric Vehicles Comparable in Range and Cost
http://www.pelliontech.com/index.htm8/13/2019 Majumdar Presentation
28/37
8/13/2019 Majumdar Presentation
29/37
Algae CelluloseCornSugarcane
Photosynthetic
Biofuels
(Calvin-Benson Cycle)
Less than
1% efficient
8/13/2019 Majumdar Presentation
30/37
Plants Engineered to Replace Oil
(PETRO)
80 GJ/ha-yr
Today
160 GJ/ha-yr @ $50/BOEFuture
?
Algae
Tobacco
LBL & UC Berkeley
f
8/13/2019 Majumdar Presentation
31/37
Electrofuels
Non-photosynthetic
Microbes
OPX Biotechnology & North
Carolina State University
Sour
Crude
Electricity
H2
Reducing
Equivalent
>10X more
efficient than
photosynthesis
8/13/2019 Majumdar Presentation
32/37
Sustainable
EnergyFuture
(I )F P di i f h P
8/13/2019 Majumdar Presentation
33/37
(In)Famous Predictions from the Past
The Americans have need of the telephone, but
we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys.
Sir William Preece, Chief Engineer, British Post
Office, 1878.
(I )F P di ti f th P t
8/13/2019 Majumdar Presentation
34/37
(In)Famous Predictions from the Past
Radio has no future
X-rays will prove to be a hoax.
Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible
Lord Kelvin in 1890s
(I )F P di ti f th P t
8/13/2019 Majumdar Presentation
35/37
(In)Famous Predictions from the Past
Man will not fly for 50 years.
Wilbur Wright in 1901
8/13/2019 Majumdar Presentation
36/37
Any sufficiently advanced technology is
indistinguishable from magic.
Arthur C. Clarke
8/13/2019 Majumdar Presentation
37/37
Thank you!
Recommended