View
217
Download
0
Category
Preview:
Citation preview
8/9/2019 Un modelo Monte Carlo para la Cmara de Diputados en Mxico
1/34
S h i b a c f b I b h q c E d r f b { d r d f d E i d r d a c
A ` { s q d a b u c h I w ` e b
L d ~ ` c r I r t s c |
4
p N r d h e ` u e b L d ~ ` c r D { d r ` e ` b
?
4
O s c h a d . F d r c a b
?
E c h q r b a c @ h ~ c u q ` m d e ` h p A b e c h e ` d C e b h i ` e d u & D ( E (
I d r | b a c ? ; 4 ;
_ c u s i c h
F d f ` q c r d q s r d u b o r c c f u ` u q c i d { b f q ` e b c f c e q b r d f c h I w ` e b d i c h s a b u c ` h q c r c
u d c h c ~ d f s d r c f c n c e q b a c s h d r c n b r i d c f c e q b r d f & b o ` c h a c d f m s h d b q r d ~ d r ` d o f c
e b h q c w q s d f & u b o r c f d e b r r c f d e ` h a c n s c r | d u c h f d E i d r d a c A ` { s q d a b u ( A c u a c s h
{ s h q b a c ~ ` u q d c i { r ` e b & c u q ` i d r c u q d a u q ` e d i c h q c c u q c q ` { b a c c n c e q b u c u s h d q d r c d
a ` n e ` f t s c r c t s ` c r c a c e ` c r q d c w { c r ` c h e ` d c h { r b m r d i d e ` h ( C u q c d r q e s f b { r c q c h a c
e b h q r ` o s ` r d f c u q s a ` b a c f u ` u q c i d c f c e q b r d f p a c f E b h m r c u b a c a b u i d h c r d u ( [ b r s h d
{ d r q c & { r c u c h q d i b u s h i q b a b c u q d a u q ` e b { d r d d h d f ` | d r f d e b i { b u ` e ` h a c E i d r d
a c A ` { s q d a b u c h I w ` e b ( [ b r b q r b f d a b & n d e ` f ` q d i b u u s ` i { f c i c h q d e ` h e b h c f u b n q
} d r c e d i d r d a ` { & s h i a s f b { d r d U q d q d a c u d r r b f f d a b { b r f b u d s q b r c u & t s c { c r i ` q c
c u q ` i d r e d h q ` a d a c u a c ` h q c r u r c f d e ` b h d a d u e b h f d E i d r d a c A ` { s q d a b u d { d r q ` r
a c u ` i s f d e ` b h c u a c I b h q c E d r f b ( [ d r d i b u q r d r f d d { f ` e d e ` h a c h s c u q r b i q b a b
c ~ d f s d i b u c f ` i { d e q b g ` { b q q ` e b a c a b u r c n b r i d u c f c e q b r d f c u c h f d e b i { b u ` e ` h a c
f d E i d r d < g b i b f b m d r c f e d f c h a d r ` b a c f d u c f c e e ` b h c u f b e d f c u p n c a c r d f c u c h q b a b c f
{ d u p & { b r b q r b f d a b & a ` u i ` h s ` r c f h i c r b a c a ` { s q d a b u { f s r ` h b i ` h d f c u (
[ d f d o r d u e f d ~ c < E i d r d a c A ` { s q d a b u & _ c n b r i d c f c e q b r d f & U ` i s f d e ` b h c u a c
I b h q c E d r f b (
4
8/9/2019 Un modelo Monte Carlo para la Cmara de Diputados en Mxico
2/34
4 ( @ h q r b a s e e ` h
I w ` e b c u s h b a c f b u { d u c u t s c g d i b a ` e d a b u s u ` u q c i d c f c e q b r d f c h i u b e d u ` b h c u
c h c f i s h a b ( E b i b u c d f d ] c f a b h ' ? ; ; 4 ) & c h e d a d s h d a c f d u e ` h e b c f c e e ` b h c u n c a c r d f c u
e c f c o r d a d u c h q r c 4 0 7 3 p 4 0 0 = u c s q ` f ` | s h u ` u q c i d c f c e q b r d f a ` u q ` h q b ( I u r c e ` c h q c i c h q c &
c h ? ; ; = c f E b h m r c u b d { r b o s h d r c n b r i d c f c e q b r d f t s c d n c e q f d c f c e e ` h n c a c r d f a c ? ; ; 0 &
p q r d u f d e s d f p d u c a ` u e s q c h a ` ~ c r u d u { r b { s c u q d u { d r d i b a ` e d r s h d ~ c | i u f d u r c m f d u
c f c e q b r d f c u ~ ` m c h q c u & q d f c u e b i b f d u a ` ~ c r u d u ` h ` e ` d q ` ~ d u a c r c n b r i d { b f q ` e d { r c u c h q d a d u
q d h q b { b r c f C l c e s q ` ~ b e b i b { b r f d u { r ` h e ` { d f c u o d h e d a d u f c m ` u f d q ` ~ d u a c u a c h d f c u a c
? ; ; 0 (
C u q c c u { r ` q s r c n b r i ` u q d a c f d q r d h u ` e ` h a c i b e r q ` e d c h I w ` e b g d c u q d a b d e b i
{ d d a b { b r s h e r c e ` c h q c ` h q c r u { b r { d r q c a c f b u ` h ~ c u q ` m d a b r c u a c f E b h m r c u b c h c ~ d f s d r
f b u c n c e q b u a c a ` u q ` h q d u r c m f d u c f c e q b r d f c u c h f d e b h n b r i d e ` h { d r q ` a ` u q d a c f d E i d r d
a c A ` { s q d a b u ( D s h t s c c h f d f ` q c r d q s r d c w ` u q c h ~ d r ` b u q r d o d l b u t s c q r d q d h c u q c q c i d
a c i d h c r d q c r ` e d b c i { r ` e d & f b u d h f ` u ` u { r b { ` d i c h q c c u q d a u q ` e b u u b h { r e q ` e d i c h q c
` h c w ` u q c h q c u (
4
S h d a c f d u e d s u d u a c c u q d u ` q s d e ` h r d a ` e d c h f d e b i { f c l ` a d a { r b { ` d a c f
i q b a b a c d u ` m h d e ` h a c e s r s f c u c h s h u ` u q c i d c f c e q b r d f i ` w q b t s c & d s h d a d d f h i c r b
r c f d q ` ~ d i c h q c m r d h a c a c { d r q ` a b u e b h r c m ` u q r b c h I w ` e b & g d e c h t s c f d u ` i s f d e ` h a c
c u e c h d r ` b u u s u q d h q ` ~ d i c h q c ` h q c r c u d h q c u u c d s h d q d r c d a ` n e ` f ( D a c i u & f d e b i { b u ` e ` h
a c f E b h m r c u b h b c u s h r c u s f q d a b t s c u c { s c a d c u q ` i d r a ` r c e q d i c h q c { b r f b u i b a c f b u c u
q d a u q ` e b u q r d a ` e ` b h d f c u p & c h c f i c l b r a c f b u e d u b u & c u s h d q d r c d t s c r c t s ` c r c a c d f m s h d u
h b e ` b h c u a c { r b m r d i d e ` h (
C u q c d r q e s f b { r c q c h a c e b h q r ` o s ` r d f c u q s a ` b a c f E b h m r c u b c h I w ` e b a c a b u i d h
c r d u ( [ b r s h d { d r q c & a c u d r r b f f d i b u c f ~ h e s f b c h q r c f b u i b a c f b u c u q d a u q ` e b u c w ` u q c h q c u
' M c f i d h . J ` h m & 4 0 0 1 : G b h d j c r c q d f ( & ? ; ; ? : J d q | . J ` h m & 4 0 0 0 : Q b i | c q d f ( & ? ; ; ? )
p f d E i d r d a c A ` { s q d a b u c h I w ` e b ( [ b r b q r b f d a b & i b u q r d i b u f d ` i { f c i c h q d e ` h
a c h s c u q r b i q b a b c h c f u b n q } d r c e d i d r d a ` { & s h i a s f b a c U q d q d ' U q d q d E b r { & ? ; ; 0 o )
4
S h d h b q d o f c c w e c { e ` h c u A ` d | E d p c r b u ' ? ; ; 3 ) (
?
8/9/2019 Un modelo Monte Carlo para la Cmara de Diputados en Mxico
3/34
a c u d r r b f f d a b { b r f b u d s q b r c u { d r d c u q ` i d r e d h q ` a d a c u a c ` h q c r u r c f d e ` b h d a d u e b h f d e b i
{ b u ` e ` h a c f d E i d r d a c A ` { s q d a b u d { d r q ` r a c u ` i s f d e ` b h c u a c I b h q c E d r f b (
?
E r c c i b u
t s c e d i d r d a ` { q ` c h c ~ d r ` d u e d r d e q c r u q ` e d u a c u c d o f c u { d r d f b u ` h ~ c u q ` m d a b r c u a c f E b h
m r c u b i c w ` e d h b & q d f c u e b i b <
C u q ` i { f c i c h q d a b c h U q d q d & s h { d t s c q c c u q d a u q ` e b s q ` f ` | d a b e b i h i c h q c { b r
f b u e ` c h q e b u u b e ` d f c u (
C u n e ` f a c s u d r & { s c u c u q o d u d a b c h s h b u e s d h q b u e b i d h a b u u c h e ` f f b u t s c r c
t s ` c r c h { b e b u { d u b u (
H b r c t s ` c r c d { r c h a c r h s c ~ b u i q b a b u h ` i b a c f b u c u q d a u q ` e b u a ` u q ` h q b u d f b u t s c
u c s u d h h b r i d f i c h q c c h f d E ` c h e ` d [ b f q ` e d e b h q c i { b r h c d (
C u q o d u d a b c h i q b a b u a c u ` i s f d e ` h c u q d a u q ` e d & s h d g c r r d i ` c h q d f b u s e ` c h q c
i c h q c c w ` o f c e b i b { d r d c w q r d c r e d h q ` a d a c u a c ` h q c r u r c f d e ` b h d a d u q d h q b e b h f b u
r c u s f q d a b u c f c e q b r d f c u e b i b e b h f d e b i { b u ` e ` h a c f d f d E i d r d a c A ` { s q d a b u c h
I w ` e b ' { b r c l c i { f b & c f c n c e q b a c f b u m d u q b u a c e d i { d d & i q b a b u a c u c f c e e ` h a c
e d h a ` a d q b u & e s b q d u a c m h c r b & c q e ( ) (
C f i a s f b { c r i ` q c d f ` h ~ c u q ` m d a b r u ` i s f d r c f c n c e q b a c s h d i { f ` b d o d h ` e b a c r c m f d u
a c d u ` m h d e ` h a c e s r s f c u ' { b r c l c i { f b & { r b e c u b u a c r c a ` u q r ` q d e ` h & e d i o ` b u c h c f
h i c r b a c e s r s f c u s h ` h b i ` h d f c u p { f s r ` h b i ` h d f c u & i b a ` e d e ` b h c u c h f d u e f s u s f d u
a c u b o r c r r c { r c u c h q d e ` h b o ` c h c h f b u s i o r d f c u a c r c { r c u c h q d e ` h & c q e ( ) (
C f d r q e s f b c u q c u q r s e q s r d a b a c f d u ` m s ` c h q c i d h c r d ( C h f d u c m s h a d u c e e ` h d o b r a d i b u
d f m s h b u d u { c e q b u { r c c f ` i ` h d r c u a c h s c u q r b i q b a b c u q d a u q ` e b { d r d f d E i d r d a c A ` { s q d
a b u & i ` u i b u t s c a c u e r ` o ` i b u a c i d h c r d i u n b r i d f c h f d q c r e c r d { d r q c ( C h f d e s d r q d
?
C f { d t s c q c n s h e ` b h d c h U q d q d ~ c r u ` h 4 ; ( ; b u s { c r ` b r & p c u q
a ` u { b h ` o f c c h f h c d c h < g q q { < " " } } } ( o s c h a ` d p f d r c a b ( e b i " ` h ~ c u q ` m d e ` b h p
g q q { < " " ` h ~ c u q ` m d a b r c u ( e ` a c ( c a s " d { d r ` e ` b " e d i d r d a ` { (
5
8/9/2019 Un modelo Monte Carlo para la Cmara de Diputados en Mxico
4/34
u c e e ` h i b u q r d i b u f d ` i { f c i c h q d e ` h a c f { d t s c q c e d i d r d a ` { & u c m s ` a d a c a b u d { f ` e d
e ` b h c u ` f s u q r d q ` ~ d u < c f c n c e q b a c f d e b h e s r r c h e ` d c h q r c c f c e e ` b h c u n c a c r d f c u p f b e d f c u p &
{ b r b q r b f d a b & c f c n c e q b a c r c a s e ` r c f h i c r b a c e s r s f c u { f s r ` h b i ` h d f c u ( N ` h d f i c h q c &
a ` u e s q ` i b u d f m s h d u r c d u a c ` h ~ c u q ` m d e ` h { d r d c u q s a ` b u n s q s r b u (
? ( A ` u e s u ` h { r c c f ` i ` h d r
C f b o l c q ` ~ b { r ` h e ` { d f a c f i q b a b c u q d a u q ` e b t s c d t s { r b { b h c i b u c u c w q r d c r e d h q `
a d a c u a c ` h q c r u r c f d e ` b h d a d u e b h f d e b h n b r i d e ` h { d r q ` a ` u q d a c f d E i d r d a c A ` { s q d a b u (
A c h b q c i b u d f h i c r b a c d u ` c h q b u b e s r s f c u t s c f c e b r r c u { b h a c h d e d a d s h b a c f b u { d r
q ` a b u { b f q ` e b u e b h r c { r c u c h q d e ` h c h f d E i d r d e b i b 9 Z4& ?& ( ( ( & LY( C f h i c r b a c
e s r s f c u { d r d e d a d { d r q ` a b a c { c h a c n s h a d i c h q d f i c h q c a c a b u ~ d r ` d o f c u < f d u { r c n c r c h e ` d u
a c f b u ~ b q d h q c u & f d u e s d f c u u c b o u c r ~ d h a c i d h c r d d m r c m d a d c h c f r c u s f q d a b c f c e q b r d f & p
f d u r c m f d u c f c e q b r d f c u & c h q r c f d u t s c a c u q d e d h f d u r c m f d u a c d u ` m h d e ` h a c e s r s f c u ' N ` m s r d
4 ) ( F d u { r c n c r c h e ` d u a c f b u ~ b q d h q c u u c i d h ` c u q d h c h f b u ~ b q b u ^ 9 Z^4& ^?& ( ( ( & ^ LY { d r d
e d a d s h b a c f b u L { d r q ` a b u 'l 9 4& ( ( ( & L )& t s c d u s ~ c | u c q r d h u n b r i d h c h { b u ` e ` b h c u c h
f d E i d r d d q r d ~ u a c f d u r c m f d u a c d u ` m h d e ` h (
_cmfdu
cfceqbrdfcu
_cmfduac
du`mhde`h
acesrsfcu
_cusfqdab
cfceqbrdf Ebi{bu`e`hacfd
Eidrdac
A`{sqdabu
N ` m s r d 4 < _ c m f d u c f c e q b r d f c u p e b i { b u ` e ` h a c f d E i d r d a c A ` { s q d a b u
M c h c r d f i c h q c & c f ` h ~ c u q ` m d a b r a c u c d c ~ d f s d r c f e d i o ` b c h c f h i c r b a c d u ` c h q b u &
& a d a b s h e d i o ` b c h f d u r c m f d u c f c e q b r d f c u ( H s c u q r b i b a c f b r c t s ` c r c a ` n c r c h e ` d r a b u
1
8/9/2019 Un modelo Monte Carlo para la Cmara de Diputados en Mxico
5/34
q ` { b u a c r c m f d u ( F d u { r ` i c r d u u b h d t s c f f d u t s c d n c e q d h c f r c u s f q d a b c f c e q b r d f d f d f q c r d r
f d { d r q ` e ` { d e ` h p " b f d u { r c n c r c h e ` d u a c f b u ~ b q d h q c u ' e b i b { b r c l c i { f b & f b u m d u q b u a c
e d i { d d a c f b u e d h a ` a d q b u & c f i q b a b a c u c f c e e ` h a c f b u e d h a ` a d q b u & b e s b q d u a c m h c r b
c h f d u e d h a ` a d q s r d u ) ( F d u { r c m s h q d u a c ` h ~ c u q ` m d e ` h r c f d e ` b h d a d u e b h c u q d u r c m f d u a c o c h
{ f d h q c d r u c c h q r i ` h b u a c c n c e q b u e b h q c w q s d f c u & p { d r d h c u a c c u q ` i d e ` h a c o c h u c r
b o u c r ~ d o f c u b i c a ` o f c u d h ` ~ c f a c f b u a ` u q r ` q b u c f c e q b r d f c u (
5
C f u c m s h a b q ` { b a c r c m f d u
u c r c c r c h c w { f e ` q d i c h q c d f d d u ` m h d e ` h a c e s r s f c u & c u a c e ` r & d t s c f f d u r c m f d u t s c a c
q c r i ` h d h i c e h ` e d i c h q c c f { r b e c a ` i ` c h q b i c a ` d h q c c f e s d f f b u { b r e c h q d l c u a c ~ b q b u u c
q r d a s e c h c h c f r c { d r q b a c e s r s f c u c h q r c f b u { d r q ` a b u : { b r c l c i { f b & c f { b r e c h q d l c b s i o r d f
i h ` i b a c ~ b q d e ` h { d r d q c h c r a c r c e g b d e s r s f c u a c r c { r c u c h q d e ` h { r b { b r e ` b h d f & b c f
q b { c i w ` i b a c u b o r c r r c { r c u c h q d e ` h c h f d E i d r d (
H s c u q r b i q b a b c u q d a u q ` e b u ` r ~ c { d r d c f d o b r d r { r c a ` e e ` b h c u & c w { f ` e d e ` b h c u b c u q ` i d r
e b h q r d n d e q s d f c u a c f d E i d r d a c A ` { s q d a b u e s d h a b s h d r c n b r i d c f c e q b r d f i b a ` e d f b u
r c u s f q d a b u c f c e q b r d f c u p " b c f i q b a b a c d u ` m h d e ` h a c e s r s f c u ( N b r i d f i c h q c & c f b o l c q ` ~ b
c u a c u e r ` o ` r d f d a ` u q r ` o s e ` h a c { r b o d o ` f ` a d a a c e s r s f c u & { ') ( 1 S h d i d h c r d a c g d e c r
c u q b c u d q r d ~ u a c u ` i s f d e ` b h c u a c I b h q c E d r f b ' L d e j i d h & ? ; ; ; d & o & ? ; ; 1 : I d r q ` h & ? ; ; 7 ) (
C u a c e ` r & c h f s m d r a c c h e b h q r d r s h d u b f s e ` h d h d f q ` e d { d r d c u q ` i d r c f c n c e q b a c s h e d i o ` b
c h f d u r c m f d u c f c e q b r d f c u & { b a c i b u b o q c h c r ~ d r ` b u ~ d f b r c u a c { ' v ^) e b h f d d p s a d a c s h
m c h c r d a b r a c h i c r b u ' u c s a b ) d f c d q b r ` b u & d m r c m d r a ` e g b u ~ d f b r c u & p g d e c r ` h n c r c h e ` d u e b h
c f f b u i c a ` d h q c c u q d a u q ` e d u a c u e r ` { q ` ~ d u ( E b h c u q c i q b a b u c { s c a c h u ` i s f d r a ` n c r c h q c u
e b i { b u ` e ` b h c u g ` { b q q ` e d u a c f d E i d r d d { d r q ` r a c s h d u c r ` c d f c d q b r ` d a c r c u s f q d a b u
c f c e q b r d f c u ( A ` d | E d p c r b u ' ? ; ; 3 ) s q ` f ` | d c u q d q e h ` e d { d r d d h d f ` | d r f d e b i { b u ` e ` h a c f
U c h d a b c h I w ` e b o d l b a ` u q ` h q d u r c m f d u a c d u ` m h d e ` h a c c u e d b u (
C f { r b o f c i d u c q b r h d s h { b e b i u e b i { f ` e d a b e s d h a b u c d h d f ` | d c f c n c e q b a c s h d r c
n b r i d t s c { r c u s i ` o f c i c h q c { s c a c d f c q c r d r f b u r c u s f q d a b u a c s h d c f c e e ` h { b r c l c i { f b &
5
[ b r b q r b f d a b & e s d h a b c f b o l c q ` ~ b c u d h d f ` | d r s h e b i { b r q d i ` c h q b ` h a ` ~ ` a s d f t s c m c h c r d s h r c u s f q d a b
d m r c m d a b & c u r c e b i c h a d o f c c i { f c d r s h i b a c f b a c ` h n c r c h e ` d c e b f m ` e d : ~ d u c J ` h m & 4 0 0 = (
1
F d a ` u q r ` o s e ` h a c { r b o d o ` f ` a d a c u c f r d h m b a c ~ d f b r c u t s c s h { d r i c q r b b c u q d a u q ` e b { s c a c q b i d r
c h s h d i s c u q r d d f c d q b r ` d a c e ` c r q d { b o f d e ` h & p f d u { r b o d o ` f ` a d a c u d u b e ` d a d u d c u b u ~ d f b r c u (
3
8/9/2019 Un modelo Monte Carlo para la Cmara de Diputados en Mxico
6/34
d f e d i o ` d r f d u { r c n c r c h e ` d u a c f b u ~ b q d h q c u b d f e d i o ` d r f d u b { e ` b h c u t s c u c f c { r c u c h q d h
& { s c u r c u s f q d ` i { b u ` o f c u ` i s f d r ~ d f b r c u d f c d q b r ` b u a c { ' v ^) a c i d h c r d a ` r c e q d ( H b
b o u q d h q c & c f i q b a b a c I b h q c E d r f b u ` m s c u ` c h a b s h d g c r r d i ` c h q d q ` f { d r d h s c u q r d
d { f ` e d e ` h ( C f d f m b r ` q i b t s c d t s u c { r b { b h c ` h e f s p c c u q ` i d r s h i b a c f b a c r c m r c u ` h
f ` h c d f { d r d c w { f ` e d r f b u r c u s f q d a b u c f c e q b r d f c u & ^ & c h n s h e ` h a c e ` c r q b u { d r i c q r b u & a c
i b a b t s c { b a c i b u u ` i s f d r ~ d f b r c u a c f d a ` u q r ` o s e ` h { ' v ^) p & d { d r q ` r a c c u b u ~ d f b r c u
c u q ` i d r f d a ` u q r ` o s e ` h a c d u ` c h q b u 9 g ') ' ~ d h u c L d e j i d h & ? ; ; ; d & ? ; ; 0 < e d { ( 5 ) (
D u ` { s c u & c h q i ` h b u m c h c r d f c u & c f i b a c f b c u q d a u q ` e b { d r d f d E i d r d a c A ` { s q d a b u
t s c u c { r b { b h c e b i { r c h a c e s d q r b c q d { d u t s c u c ` f s u q r d h c h f d { r ` i c r d e b f s i h d a c f d
N ` m s r d ? < 4 ) c u { c e ` e d e ` h p u ` i s f d e ` h a c f b u { d r i c q r b u a c s h i b a c f b a c r c m r c u ` h &
? ) m c h c r d e ` h a c r c { f ` e d e ` b h c u g ` { b q q ` e d u a c f r c u s f q d a b c f c e q b r d f & d u e b i b 5 ) a c f d
e b h n b r i d e ` h a c f d E i d r d a c A ` { s q d a b u & p 1 ) c w q r d e e ` h a c e d h q ` a d a c u a c ` h q c r u (
E b h c f f b c f ` h ~ c u q ` m d a b r { s c a c d h d f ` | d r q d h q b f d q c h a c h e ` d e c h q r d f e b i b f d a ` u { c r u ` h
a c f d u a ` u q r ` o s e ` b h c u a c { r b o d o ` f ` a d a a c ~ b q b u & f d u a ` u q r ` o s e ` b h c u a c f h i c r b a c e s r s f c u
a c e d a d { d r q ` a b & b o ` c h b q r d u e d h q ` a d a c u t s c u c a c r ` ~ d h a c f d a ` u q r ` o s e ` h a c ~ b q b u p
d u ` c h q b u { b r c l c i { f b & f d { r b o d o ` f ` a d a a c t s c f d o d h e d a d a c s h { d r q ` a b u c d { ` ~ b q d f c h
s h d e b d f ` e ` h i h ` i d m d h d a b r d (
Ibacfbacrcmrcu`hp
u`isfde`hac
{dricqrbu
_c{f`ede`bhcu
g`{bq7eduacf
rcusfqdabcfceqbrdf
_c{f`ede`bhcu
g`{bq7eduacfd
EidrdacA`{sqdabu
Edh7adacuac`hqcru
cuq`ida`{
u`isfda`{
du`mhda`{
Cuqdau7edacuer`{7~d
Ebcffle`chqcupcrrbrcu
cuqhadr
A`uqr`ose`hac
{rbodo`f`adaac~bqbu
A`uqr`ose`hac
{rbodo`f`adaac
esrsfcu
[rscoduacg`{qcu`u
p"sbqrduedh7adacu
ac`hqcru
Ibacfbcuqdau7eb @i{fcichqde`h[rcuchqde`hac
rcusfqdabu
N ` m s r d ? < I b a c f b c u q d a u q ` e b a c f d E i d r d a c A ` { s q d a b u
>
8/9/2019 Un modelo Monte Carlo para la Cmara de Diputados en Mxico
7/34
C h f d u ` m s ` c h q c u c e e ` h d o b r a d i b u o r c ~ c i c h q c f d u e s d q r b c q d { d u a c f i b a c f b c u q d a u
q ` e b ( C h f d u c e e ` h 1 c w { b h c i b u ` h q s ` q ` ~ d i c h q c h s c u q r d ` i { f c i c h q d e ` h a c f i b a c f b c h
c f { d t s c q c e d i d r d a ` { a c U q d q d ' ~ c r u c m s h a d e b f s i h d a c f d N ` m s r d ? ) ( C h f d u c e e ` h 3
{ r c u c h q d i b u a b u d { f ` e d e ` b h c u e b h e r c q d u a c f i q b a b t s c { r b { b h c i b u { d r d c w q r d c r e d h
q ` a d a c u a c ` h q c r u ' q c r e c r d e b f s i h d a c f d N ` m s r d ? ) (
5 ( I b a c f b c u q d a u q ` e b
5 ( 4 ( C u q ` i d e ` h e b h a d q b u c f c e q b r d f c u i s f q ` { d r q ` a ` u q d u
E b i b i c h e ` b h d i b u c h f d u c e e ` h d h q c r ` b r & c f h i c r b a c d u ` c h q b u t s c f c e b r r c u { b h a c h
d e d a d { d r q ` a b c h f d E i d r d a c { c h a c a c f r c u s f q d a b c f c e q b r d f ' f d i d h ` n c u q d e ` h c h ~ b q b u
a c f d u { r c n c r c h e ` d u a c f b u ~ b q d h q c u ) & p a c f d u r c m f d u c f c e q b r d f c u ( C h c u q d { d r q c d o b r a d r c i b u
c f { r ` i c r b a c c f f b u (
F d i d h c r d i u e b i h a c c w { f ` e d r b { r c a c e ` r c u q d a u q ` e d i c h q c s h r c u s f q d a b c f c e q b r d f
c u d q r d ~ u a c s h i b a c f b a c r c m r c u ` h ' M c f i d h . G ` f f & ? ; ; = < e d { u ( 5 p 1 ) ( H b r i d f i c h q c &
c f ` h ~ c u q ` m d a b r c u q ` i d c f { b r e c h q d l c a c ~ b q d e ` h a c s h { d r q ` a b { b f q ` e b e b i b s h d n s h
e ` h a c a ` ~ c r u b u n d e q b r c u c w { f ` e d q ` ~ b u d q r d ~ u a c s h i b a c f b a c r c m r c u ` h a c I h ` i b u
E s d a r d a b u B r a ` h d r ` b u ' I E B ) ( A c u d n b r q s h d a d i c h q c & c f i b a c f b c u q h a d r a c r c m r c u ` h
c u ` h d { r b { ` d a b { d r d c u q ` i d r f b u r c u s f q d a b u c f c e q b r d f c u a c s h u ` u q c i d i s f q ` { d r q ` a ` u q d
' J d q | . J ` h m & 4 0 0 0 ) ( [ b r c l c i { f b & f b u r c u s f q d a b u a c f d r c m r c u ` h { s c a c h ` h a ` e d r t s c s h
{ d r q ` a b { b a r d b o q c h c r i c h b u a c e c r b ~ b q b u & b o ` c h t s c f d u s i d a c f b u ~ b q b u a c q b a b u
f b u { d r q ` a b u { b a r d u c r i c h b r b i d p b r d 4 ; ; # (
C u q d u ` h e b h u ` u q c h e ` d u u s r m c h { b r t s c f b u r c u s f q d a b u c f c e q b r d f c u i s f q ` { d r q ` a ` u q d u ~ ` b f d h
a b u u s { s c u q b u u s o p d e c h q c u a c f i b a c f b c u q h a d r ( C h { r ` i c r f s m d r & I E B d u s i c t s c
f d ~ d r ` d o f c a c { c h a ` c h q c ' c h c u q c e d u b & f d { r b { b r e ` h a c ~ b q b u a c s h { d r q ` a b ) c u s h d
=
8/9/2019 Un modelo Monte Carlo para la Cmara de Diputados en Mxico
8/34
~ d r ` d o f c e b h q ` h s d ` r r c u q r ` e q d & c u a c e ` r & t s c { s c a c q b i d r e s d f t s ` c r ~ d f b r ( H d q s r d f i c h q c &
f d { r b { b r e ` h a c ~ b q b u a c s h { d r q ` a b u c c h e s c h q r d h c e c u d r ` d i c h q c d e b q d a d c h q r c e c r b
p s h b ( A c h b q c i b u d ^l e b i b f d { r b { b r e ` h a c ~ b q b u a c f { d r q ` a b l 'l 9 4& ( ( ( & L ) c h c f
a ` u q r ` q b c f c e q b r d f
` '` 9 4& ( ( ( & h)( N b r i d f i c h q c &
^l Z;& 4Y `& l ' 4 )
C h u c m s h a b f s m d r & c f i b a c f b c u q h a d r { r c u s { b h c t s c f d { r b { b r e ` h a c ~ b q b u a c s h
{ d r q ` a b c u b r q b m b h d f b ` h a c { c h a ` c h q c a c f d a c f b u a c i u : u ` h c i o d r m b & c u e f d r b t s c c h f d
e b i { b u ` e ` h { b r e c h q s d f a c s h d e b h q ` c h a d c f c e q b r d f & c f { b r e c h q d l c a c ~ b q b u a c s h { d r q ` a b
c u q ` h ~ c r u d i c h q c r c f d e ` b h d a b e b h c f a c f b u a c i u q b a d ~ c | t s c f d u s i d a c q b a d u f d u
{ r b { b r e ` b h c u a c ~ b q b u c u ` m s d f d s h b ( A ` e g b a c i d h c r d n b r i d f &
Ll94
^l 9 4 ` ' ? )
[ d r d u s o u d h d r f d u ` h e b h u ` u q c h e ` d u a c f i b a c f b c u q h a d r & J d q | . J ` h m ' 4 0 0 0 ) r c
e b i ` c h a d h i b a c f d r f d { r b { b r e ` h a c ~ b q b u a c f b u { d r q ` a b u e b h s h d q r d h u n b r i d e ` h
f b m u q ` e d i s f q ` ~ d r ` d a d ' D ` q e g ` u b h & 4 0 7 ? ) ( C u q d q e h ` e d e b h u ` u q c c h q r d h n b r i d r d f b m r d
q ` b u f d { r b { b r e ` h a c ~ b q b u a c f { d r q ` a b l 9 4& ( ( ( & L 4 & r c u { c e q b a c s h { d r q ` a b o d u c L(
D u & c f ~ c e q b r a c L 4 f b m r d q ` b u c h c f a ` u q r ` q b ` u c r c { r c u c h q d a c f d u ` m s ` c h q c i d h c r d <
P ` 9 Zfh '^4"^L) & fh '^?"^L) & ( ( ( & fh '^'L4)"^L)Y
F d q r d h u n b r i d e ` h f b m u q ` e d e b h ~ ` c r q c f d u { r b { b r e ` b h c u a c ~ b q b u c h s h d c u e d f d e b h
q ` h s d ` r r c u q r ` e q d e b i b r c t s ` c r c I E B & p q r d u f d c u q ` i d e ` h f d u r c e s { c r d c h u s c u e d f d
b r ` m ` h d f ' u d q ` u n d e ` c h a b ' 4 ) p ' ? ) ) e b h s h d q r d h u n b r i d e ` h f b m u q ` e d ` h ~ c r u d ( [ d r d h c u
a c c u q ` i d e ` h & d u s i ` i b u t s c c f ~ c e q b r a c f b m r d q ` b u q ` c h c s h d a ` u q r ` o s e ` h h b r i d f i s f
q ` ~ d r ` d a d e b h u s i c a ` d c h c f ~ c e q b r p i d q r ` | a c ~ d r ` d h | d & P` H'`& ) ' Q b i |
7
8/9/2019 Un modelo Monte Carlo para la Cmara de Diputados en Mxico
9/34
c q d f ( & ? ; ; ? ) (
3
F s c m b c h q b h e c u & c f r c u s f q d a b c f c e q b r d f c u { c r d a b c h e d a d a ` u q r ` q b & ` & u c
{ s c a c i b a c f d r e b i b s h d n s h e ` h f ` h c d f a c s h ~ c e q b r a c ~ d r ` d o f c u c w { f ` e d q ` ~ d u W p f b u
{ d r i c q r b u & q d f t s c
` 9w`44 * w`?? * ( ( ( * w`'L4)'L4)
' 5 )
D f ` m s d f t s c c h e s d f t s ` c r i b a c f b a c r c m r c u ` h & f d c f c e e ` h a c t s ~ d r ` d o f c u ` h e f s ` r
c h c f ~ c e q b r W a c { c h a c a c h s c u q r d { r c m s h q d a c ` h ~ c u q ` m d e ` h ( U ` c f b o l c q ` ~ b c u c ~ d f s d r
c f c n c e q b e d s u d f a c s h d ~ d r ` d o f c c h f d ~ b q d e ` h a c f b u { d r q ` a b u ' p { b r f b q d h q b & c h f d u
e s r s f c u t s c f c u e b r r c u { b h a c h ) & c u q c ~ c e q b r a c o c c w e f s ` r d t s c f f d u ~ d r ` d o f c u t s c u b h c h
{ d r q c e b h u c e s c h e ` d a c h s c u q r d ~ d r ` d o f c c w { f ` e d q ` ~ d e f d ~ c ' _ b u c h o d s i & 4 0 7 1 : J ` h m c q d f ( &
4 0 0 1 ) ( C h e d i o ` b & u ` c f b o l c q ` ~ b c u g d e c r { r b h u q ` e b u a c f r c u s f q d a b c f c e q b r d f ' { d r d f s c m b
c ~ d f s d r c f c n c e q b a c s h d r c m f d a c d u ` m h d e ` h a c e s r s f c u ) & f d u c f c e e ` h a c f d u ~ d r ` d o f c u
c w { f ` e d q ` ~ d u u c r ` m c { b r b q r b u e r ` q c r ` b u & u ` c h a b c f i u ` i { b r q d h q c t s c d p s a c h d { r c a c e ` r
f b i c l b r { b u ` o f c d f d ~ d r ` d o f c a c { c h a ` c h q c ' M c f i d h . G ` f f & ? ; ; = < > 0 ) (
C f u ` u q c i d a c c e s d e ` b h c u c h ' 5 ) { s c a c c u q ` i d r u c e b h L 4 i b a c f b u a c r c m r c u ` h
e b h I E B : u ` h c i o d r m b & L d e j u b h ' ? ; ; ? ) p Q b i | c q d f ( ' ? ; ; ? ) r c e b i ` c h a d h s q ` f ` | d r _ c
m r c u ` b h c u D { d r c h q c i c h q c @ h e b h c w d u ' U c c i ` h m f p S h r c f d q c a _ c m r c u u ` b h b U S _ c h ` h m f u )
{ b r ~ d r ` d u r d | b h c u ( C h { r ` i c r f s m d r & c u q c i q b a b c u q ` f { d r d c u q ` i d r u ` u q c i d u a c c e s d
e ` b h c u e b h c r r b r c u e b r r c f d e ` b h d a b u & p f b u a d q b u i s f q ` { d r q ` a ` u q d u q ` c h c h c u d c u q r s e q s r d
a d a b t s c s h i d p b r f b m r d q ` b { d r d s h { d r q ` a b u ` m h ` e d s h i c h b r f b m r d q ` b { d r d b q r b (
C h u c m s h a b f s m d r & u ` f d u ~ d r ` d o f c u c w { f ` e d q ` ~ d u a ` c r c h a c s h d c e s d e ` h d b q r d ' e b i b
{ s c a c b e s r r ` r c h f d u d { f ` e d e ` b h c u a c f i b a c f b ) & U S _ ` h e b r { b r d f d e b ~ d r ` d h | d a c f d u c e s d
3
J d q | . J ` h m ' 4 0 0 0 ) d r m s i c h q d h t s c f d a ` u q r ` o s e ` h h b r i d f i s f q ` ~ d r ` d a d h b u c d l s u q d e b r r c e q d i c h q c
d f b u a d q b u c f c e q b r d f c u i s f q ` { d r q ` a ` u q d u & p t s c c h u s f s m d r a c o c r d c i { f c d r u c f d a ` u q r ` o s e ` h q ( U ` h
c i o d r m b & f b u c w { c r ` i c h q b u a c Q b i | c q d f ( ' ? ; ; ? ) i s c u q r d h t s c d i o d u a ` u q r ` o s e ` b h c u d r r b l d h r c u s f q d a b u
i s p { d r c e ` a b u & c h { d r q ` e s f d r e s d h a b f d u e d h q ` a d a c u a c ` h q c r u u b h ~ b q b u b e s r s f c u c h f d f c m ` u f d q s r d (
E b i b f b u d s q b r c u d r i d h & Z o Y p d a b { q ` h m q g c H b r i d f } c f b u c f ` q q f c b n u s o u q d h q ` ~ c ` h q c r c u q o s q m d ` h
t s ` q c d o ` q ` h c d u c b n s u c ' { ( = 4 ) ( U s ` h ~ c u q ` m d e ` h q d i o ` h e ` q d f b u g d f f d | m b u a c O r c s u e g c q d f ( ' 4 0 0 = ) &
t s ` c h c u u b u q ` c h c h t s c d f q g b s m g i d q g c i d q ` e d f f p q g c q } b i b a c f u d r c a ` c r c h q & n b r { s r { b u c u b n u q d q ` u q ` e d f
` h n c r c h e c q g c p d r c ` h a ` u q ` h m s ` u g d o f c ' { ( ? > 0 ) (
0
8/9/2019 Un modelo Monte Carlo para la Cmara de Diputados en Mxico
10/34
e ` b h c u { d r d b o q c h c r c u q ` i d a b r c u i u c e ` c h q c u t s c I E B ( C h q c r e c r f s m d r & U S _ q ` c h c
s h o s c h a c u c i { c b c h i s c u q r d u { c t s c d u ' e s d h a b c f h i c r b a c a ` u q r ` q b u c u f ` i ` q d a b ) &
p c u i u c w ` o f c t s c b q r d u d f q c r h d q ` ~ d u e s d h a b c f h i c r b a c { d r q ` a b u c u r c f d q ` ~ d i c h q c
m r d h a c
'L 8 5)( N ` h d f i c h q c & f d ` i { f c i c h q d e ` h a c U S _ c h f b u { d t s c q c u c u q d a u q ` e b u
i u e b i s h c u n d e ` f ` q d d f ` h ~ c u q ` m d a b r c u q ` i d r f d u L 4 c e s d e ` b h c u e b h { b e b u e b i d h a b u (
5 ( ? ( U ` i s f d e ` h c u q d a u q ` e d p e d h q ` a d a c u a c ` h q c r u
E b i b h b r i d f i c h q c b e s r r c e b h b q r b u i b a c f b u a c r c m r c u ` h & f b u { d r i c q r b u c h ' 5 )
u b h a ` n e ` f c u a c ` h q c r { r c q d r p c u q h r c f d e ` b h d a b u u f b a c i d h c r d ` h a ` r c e q d e b h h s c u q r d u
{ r c m s h q d u a c ` h ~ c u q ` m d e ` h ( F b u e b c e ` c h q c u a c f i b a c f b ` h a ` e d h c f e d i o ` b c h c f f b m
r d q ` b a c f b u ~ b q b u a c s h { d r q ` a b n r c h q c d s h ` h e r c i c h q b a c s h d s h ` a d a c h f d u ~ d r ` d o f c u
c w { f ` e d q ` ~ d u ( E b i b ~ c r c i b u i u d a c f d h q c & { d r d ` h q c r { r c q d r f b u r c u s f q d a b u c h q r i ` h b u
a c { b r e c h q d l c u a c ~ b q b u u c r c t s ` c r c d { f ` e d r f d q r d h u n b r i d e ` h f b m u q ` e d ` h ~ c r u d ' c e s d e ` h
3 ) (
[ c r b d a c i u & { d r d f b u c u q s a ` b u b u a c f { b a c r f c m ` u f d q ` ~ b f b u ~ b q b u h b u b h ` i { b r q d h q c u
{ b r u i ` u i b u ( F b u ~ b q b u e b o r d h r c f c ~ d h e ` d e s d h a b u c q r d a s e c h c h e s r s f c u c h f d E i d r d
p u q b u & d u s ~ c | & q ` c h c h s h ` i { d e q b c h c f e b h q r b f p a ` u c b a c { b f q ` e d u { o f ` e d u e b h e r c q d u (
[ b r c l c i { f b & { d r d f b u ` h ~ c u q ` m d a b r c u a c f e b i { b r q d i ` c h q b c f c e q b r d f { s c a c u c r ` i { b r q d h q c
e b h b e c r c f c n c e q b t s c c l c r e c h f d u c f c e e ` b h c u e b h e s r r c h q c u u b o r c f d ~ b q d e ` h a c f b u { d r q ` a b u :
{ c r b d f b u c u { c e ` d f ` u q d u a c f { b a c r f c m ` u f d q ` ~ b { b a r d r c u s f q d r f c u i u ` h q c r c u d h q c u d o c r
u ` s h d r c n b r i d c h e d i ` h d a d d g b i b f b m d r c f e d f c h a d r ` b c f c e q b r d f d f q c r d r d a c i d h c r d
u ` m h ` e d q ` ~ d f d e b r r c f d e ` h a c n s c r | d u c h c f E b h m r c u b ( U ` q b a d u f d u c f c e e ` b h c u f b e d f c u p
n c a c r d f c u n s c r d h e b h e s r r c h q c u & e s f u c r d f d e b i { b u ` e ` h { d r q ` a ` u q d a c f d E i d r d a c
A ` { s q d a b u 2 F d h s c ~ d e b h u q c f d e ` h u b o r c r r c { r c u c h q d r d d s h { d r q ` a b c h a c q r ` i c h q b a c
f b u a c i u 2 D s i c h q d r d f d { r b o d o ` f ` a d a a c t s c c f { d r q ` a b a c f [ r c u ` a c h q c q c h m d i d p b r d
u ` i { f c c h f d E i d r d 2 P u ` f d r c n b r i d o c h c e ` d d f d b { b u ` e ` h & u s u m d h d h e ` d u u c r d h
a ` n s u d u & b u c e b h e c h q r d r d h c h s h u b f b { d r q ` a b 2
4 ;
8/9/2019 Un modelo Monte Carlo para la Cmara de Diputados en Mxico
11/34
A ` e g b a c i d h c r d i u m c h c r d f & c f b o l c q ` ~ b a c f i b a c f b u c { s c a c r c n b r i s f d r e b i b
c u q ` i d r f d a ` u q r ` o s e ` h a c { r b o d o ` f ` a d a a c e s r s f c u e b i b s h d n s h e ` h a c f b u { d r i c q r b u
a c f i b a c f b a c r c m r c u ` h a c ~ b q b u 9 Z& Y&
9 g ')
C f w ` q b c h f d c i { r c u d a c { c h a c a c f d h d q s r d f c | d a c f d e d h q ` a d a a c ` h q c r u < d f m s h d u
{ s c a c h e d f e s f d r u c n e ` f i c h q c e b h i q b a b u d h d f q ` e b u q r d a ` e ` b h d f c u ' c ( m ( & M c f i d h . J ` h m &
4 0 0 1 < 3 5 ? ) : b q r d u r c t s ` c r c h i q b a b u i u a ` n e ` f c u & e b i b d { r b w ` i d e ` b h c u { b r u c r ` c u a c
Q d p f b r ' J d q | . J ` h m & 4 0 0 0 < ? 3 ) & p d f m s h d u u b h ` i { b u ` o f c u a c b o q c h c r e b h e s d f t s ` c r d a c
f b u i q b a b u d h q c r ` b r c u ( A d a d f d e b i { f c l ` a d a a c f d u r c m f d u a c d u ` m h d e ` h & f d a ` u q r ` o s e ` h
a c f h i c r b a c e s r s f c u a c s h { d r q ` a b c h f d E d i d r d A ` { s q d a b u { s c a c u c r a ` n e ` f b ` i
{ b u ` o f c a c b o q c h c r a c i d h c r d d h d f q ` e d ( [ b r c u b & { r b { b h c r i b u e d f e s f d r f d c i { r ` e d i c h q c
e b h f d d p s a d a c u ` i s f d e ` b h c u ( E b i b J ` h m c q d f ( ' ? ; ; ; ) d r i d h <
C w ` u q c s h d d f q c r h d q ` ~ d o d u d a d c h u ` i s f d e ` h { d r d e d u ` e s d f t s ` c r i q b a b
d h d f q ` e b c i { f c d a b { d r d e d f e s f d r e d h q ` a d a c u a c ` h q c r u p { d r d r c d f ` | d r { r s c
o d u c u q d a u q ` e d u & { c r b h b d f r c ~ u ( D u { s c u & f d u ` i s f d e ` h c u q d a u q ` e d { s c a c
b n r c e c r r c u { s c u q d u { r c e ` u d u ` h e f s u b e s d h a b h b c w ` u q c h u b f s e ` b h c u d h d f q ` e d u
' { ( 3 5 ) (
F d u ` i s f d e ` h c u q d a u q ` e d u c o d u d c h c f { r ` h e ` { ` b a c I b h q c E d r f b & u c m h c f e s d f { b a c
i b u e b h b e c r b a c u e r ` o ` r e s d f t s ` c r ~ d r ` d o f c d f c d q b r ` d b o q c h ` c h a b s h d i s c u q r d a c ~ d f b r c u
t s c { c r q c h c e c h d u s a ` u q r ` o s e ` h a c { r b o d o ` f ` a d a ' L d e j i d h & ? ; ; 0 ) ( A c d e s c r a b e b h
c f Q c b r c i d a c f F i ` q c E c h q r d f & f d a ` u q r ` o s e ` h a c { r b o d o ` f ` a d a a c f b u { d r i c q r b u c u
' d u ` h q q ` e d i c h q c ) h b r i d f i s f q ` ~ d r d a d <
>
>
C u q c u s { s c u q b a ` u q r ` o s e ` b h d f c u r c f d q ` ~ d i c h q c r c u q r ` e q ` ~ b ( E b i b L d e j i d h ' ? ; ; ; d ) d r i d &
4 4
8/9/2019 Un modelo Monte Carlo para la Cmara de Diputados en Mxico
12/34
H
& ~dr
' 1 )
[ b r f b q d h q b & { b a c i b u d { r b w ` i d r h b u d f d a ` u q r ` o s e ` h a c { r b o d o ` f ` a d a a c u c f c e
e ` b h d h a b b u ` i s f d h a b d f c d q b r ` d i c h q c q 9 4& ?& ( ( ( Q ~ d f b r c u '4)& '?)& ( ( ( & 'Q) a c ' 1 ) & p
c ~ d f s d h a b 'q) 9 g
'q)
e b h e d a d s h b a c c f f b u (
C u { c e e d i c h q c & c f d f m b r ` q i b { d r d u ` i s f d r s h ~ d f b r a c f d a ` u q r ` o s e ` h a c ` h ~ b f s e r d
f b u u ` m s ` c h q c u { d u b u <
4 ( C u q ` i d r c f ~ c e q b r a c { d r i c q r b u i c a ` d h q c U S _ (
? ( U c f c e e ` b h d r d f c d q b r ` d i c h q c ' u ` i s f d r ) s h ~ c e q b r a c { d r i c q r b u d { d r q ` r a c f d
a ` u q r ` o s e ` h h b r i d f i s f q ` ~ d r ` d a d a d a d c h ' 1 ) (
5 ( C f c m ` r ~ d f b r c u r c d f c u ' b o u c r ~ d a b u ) b o ` c h ~ d f b r c u g ` { b q q ` e b u { d r d f d u ~ d r ` d o f c u
c w { f ` e d q ` ~ d u a c f a ` u q r ` q b ` a c d e s c r a b d f d { r c m s h q d a c ` h ~ c u q ` m d e ` h ( A c h b q c i b u d f
~ c e q b r a c ~ d f b r c u e b i b Wg`{` ( U ` u c a c u c d c ~ d f s d r h ` e d i c h q c c f ` i { d e q b a c d f m h
i q b a b a c d u ` m h d e ` h a c e s r s f c u &
Wg`{` 9 W
(
1 ( E d f e s f d r c f ~ c e q b r a c r c u s f q d a b u c f c e q b r d f c u g`{` 9wg`{`4 4 * w
g`{`? ? * ( ( ( * w
g`{
`'L4)'L4)
e b h f d u u ` i s f d e ` b h c u a c a c f { d u b ? p c f ~ c e q b r Wg`{` (
3 ( U ` i s f d r Pg`{` u c f c e e ` b h d h a b d f c d q b r ` d i c h q c s h ~ d f b r a c f d a ` u q r ` o s e ` h H
g`{` &
(
=
@ n q g c d u p i { q b q ` e h b r i d f d { { r b w ` i d q ` b h ` u { b b r & n d s f q p ` h n c r c h e c u d h a i b a c f { r c a ` e
q ` b h u e d h r c u s f q ( Q g ` u ` u d r c d f a d h m c r n b r { b u q c u q ` i d q ` b h u ` i s f d q ` b h { r b e c a s r c u Z ( ( ( Y &
} g ` e g r c { c d q c a f p u d i { f c n r b i q g c d u p i { q b q ` e i s f q ` ~ d r ` d q c h b r i d f a ` u q r ` o s q ` b h n b r q b
o s ` f a d h d { { r b w ` i d q ` b h q b q g c { b u q c r ` b r b n d h d s w ` f ` d r p t s d h q ` q p 9 g ')' { d m ( 5 ; 0 ) (
F d u u ` i s f d e ` b h c u a c I b h q c E d r f b m c h c r d a d u e b h E d a c h d u a c I d r j b ~ b n r c e c h s h d u b f s e ` h d c u q c { r b o
f c i d & { s c u { c r i ` q c h q r d | d r ~ d f b r c u a c f d a ` u q r ` o s e ` h h ` q d & c h f s m d r a c o d u d r u c c h c f Q c b r c i d a c f
F i ` q c E c h q r d f { d r d l s u q ` e d r f d d { r b w ` i d e ` h h b r i d f i s f q ` ~ d r ` d a d ' ] c u q c r h . L d e j i d h & 4 0 0 1 ) ( C f
e b i d h a b d u ` m h d a ` { r c u s f q d q ` f { d r d f b u ` h ~ c u q ` m d a b r c u t s c { r c c r c h s q ` f ` | d r c u q c i q b a b { d r d g d f f d r
f d a ` u q r ` o s e ` h { b u q c r ` b r a c f { b r e c h q d l c a c ~ b q b u a c f b u { d r q ` a b u (
=
U ` u c a c u c d b o q c h c r s h ~ d f b r c u { c r d a b c h f s m d r a c s h ~ d f b r { r c a ` e g b & Pg`{` 9
g`{` ( C u ` i { b r q d h q c
u c d f d r t s c c u q d { r b { ` c a d a h b c u m c h c r d f ` | d o f c d b q r b u i b a c f b u c u q d a u q ` e b u ' ~ d u c J ` h m c q d f ( & ? ; ; ; <
5 3 4 ) (
4 ?
8/9/2019 Un modelo Monte Carlo para la Cmara de Diputados en Mxico
13/34
> ( Q r d h u n b r i d r Pg`{` c h s h d { r b { b r e ` h a c ~ b q b u e b h f d n s h e ` h f b m u q ` e d ` h ~ c r u d
' D ` q e g ` u b h & 4 0 7 ? ) <
7
^
g`{
`l 9
cw{
Pg`{`l
4 *L
4
l94 cw{
Pg`{`l l 9 L
' 3 )
F d { r c a ` e e ` h a c f { d r q ` a b s u d a b e b i b o d u c b r c n c r c h e ` d c h f d q r d h u n b r i d e ` h f b m u
q ` e d &
g`{`L & c u q a c q c r i ` h d a d { b r f d c w { r c u ` h < g`{`L 9 4
L4l94
g`{`l (
= ( _ c { c q ` r f b u { d u b u 5 d > { d r d e d a d s h b a c f b u h a ` u q r ` q b u ( D m r c m d r f b u r c u s f q d a b u c h
c f ~ c e q b r
g`{(
7 ( C ~ d f s d r f d a ` u q r ` o s e ` h a c e s r s f c u g`{ 9 m
g`{
& a b h a c m c u s h d n s h e ` h t s c
r c { r c u c h q d c f { r b e c a ` i ` c h q b a c d u ` m h d e ` h a c e s r s f c u a c d e s c r a b d f d f c p c f c e q b r d f &
b o ` c h b q r d r c m f d g ` { b q q ` e d a c d u ` m h d e ` h c u q d o f c e ` a d d { r ` b r ` { b r c f ` h ~ c u q ` m d a b r (
U ` u c r c { ` q c h f b u { d u b u ? d 7 s h h i c r b r c f d q ` ~ d i c h q c m r d h a c a c ~ c e c u ' a ` m d i b u &
Q 9 4& ;;; ) & b o q c h c i b u Q d u ` m h d e ` b h c u g ` { b q q ` e d u a c f d E i d r d a c A ` { s q d a b u & e s p d
a ` u q r ` o s e ` h u c d { r b w ` i d d f d a ` u q r ` o s e ` h a c { r b o d o ` f ` a d a e b i { f c q d a c
g`{
(
1 ( @ i { f c i c h q d e ` h
C f d f m b r ` q i b a c f d u c e e ` h d h q c r ` b r m s d r a d u ` i ` f ` q s a c u e b h c f a c u e r ` q b { b r J ` h m c q d f (
' ? ; ; ; ) & c ` i { f c i c h q d a b c h E f d r ` n p { b r Q b i | c q d f ( ' ? ; ; 5 ) ( A c g c e g b & f d ` i { f c i c h q d e ` h
a c h s c u q r b i q b a b u c d { b p d c h d f m s h d u a c f d u r s q ` h d u a c c u c { r b m r d i d : h b b o u q d h q c &
h s c u q r d r s q ` h d c u i u { d r c e ` a d d f d a c f [ b r e c h q d l c E b r r c e q d i c h q c [ r c a ` e g b n b r i s f d a d
{ b r G c r r b h ' 4 0 0 0 ) (
0
F d u a ` n c r c h e ` d u c h q r c E f d r ` n p p h s c u q r b i q b a b { s c a c h ` f s u q r d r u c
7
C h c u q c { d u b d m r c m d i b u c f u s o h a ` e c l { d r d a ` n c r c h e ` d r f b u ~ d f b r c u { r c a ` e g b u a c f b u { d r q ` a b u c h c f
i b a c f b a c f ~ d f b r { r c a ` e g b a c f { d r q ` a b s u d a b e b i b r c n c r c h e ` d c h f d q r d h u n b r i d e ` h f b m u q ` e d i s f q ` ~ d r ` d a d (
0
Q d i o ` h ~ d u c Q b i | c q d f ( ' ? ; ; ? ) (
4 5
8/9/2019 Un modelo Monte Carlo para la Cmara de Diputados en Mxico
14/34
n e ` f i c h q c e b h f d Q d o f d 4 ' d a d { q d a d a c M c f i d h . J ` h m & 4 0 0 1 ) ( E d a d f d r c { r c u c h q d
s h a ` u q r ` q b & e b h c f h i c r b a c f a ` u q r ` q b c h f d { r ` i c r d e b f s i h d p c f { b r e c h q d l c a c ~ b q b u
b o u c r ~ d a b a c f { d r q ` a b l c h f d u c m s h a d e b f s i h d ( F d u a c i u e b f s i h d u r c { r c u c h q d h u ` i
s f d e ` b h c u a c f d a ` u q r ` o s e ` h a c f { b r e c h q d l c a c ~ b q b u ( [ b r c l c i { f b & c f ~ b q b b o u c r ~ d a b a c f
{ d r q ` a b l c h c f a ` u q r ` q b 4 c u ^4l & p f d { r ` i c r d u ` i s f d e ` h c u 'g`{)44l & f d u c m s h a d c u
'g`{)?4l &
p d u u s e c u ` ~ d i c h q c (
H b r i d f i c h q c & c f ` h ~ c u q ` m d a b r s q ` f ` | d E f d r ` n p { d r d d h d f ` | d r c f c n c e q b a c s h d ~ d r ` d o f c
c w { f ` e d q ` ~ d o d l b c u e c h d r ` b u c u { c e e b u ( C h q r i ` h b u m c h c r d f c u & c f { r b e c a ` i ` c h q b e b h
u ` u q c c h u ` i s f d r f b u { d r i c q r b u a c f i b a c f b a c r c m r c u ` h & l d r f d u ~ d r ` d o f c u c w { f ` e d q ` ~ d u
c h ~ d f b r c u g ` { b q q ` e b u a c ` h q c r u ' a ` m d i b u & c h u s u ~ d f b r c u { r b i c a ` b ) & p e d f e s f d r c f ~ d f
b r c u { c r d a b a c f d ~ d r ` d o f c a c { c h a ` c h q c ' J d q | . J ` h m & 4 0 0 0 : J ` h m c q d f ( & ? ; ; ; ) ( C h
b q r d u { d f d o r d u & E f d r ` n p u s c f c c i { f c d r u c { d r d b o q c h c r Q ~ d f b r c u c u { c r d a b u a c s h a ` u q r ` q b
{ r b i c a ` b ' ` ( c ( & s h d f d a c f d Q d o f d 4 ) ( C h e d i o ` b & h s c u q r b i q b a b s q ` f ` | d e b i b ` h u s i b
f d u Q r c { f ` e d e ` b h c u g ` { b q q ` e d u a c f r c u s f q d a b c f c e q b r d f d m r c m d a b & f b e s d f ` i { f ` e d q r d | d r
u ` i s f d e ` b h c u { d r d e d a d s h b a c f b u a ` u q r ` q b u ' M c f i d h . J ` h m & 4 0 0 1 ) ( C h f d Q d o f d 4 u c
b o u c r ~ d t s c u ` i s f d h a b Q ~ d f b r c u a c f d a ` u q r ` o s e ` h a c ~ b q b u { d r d e d a d a ` u q r ` q b ' f d u ) & u c
b o q ` c h c h Q r c u s f q d a b u c f c e q b r d f c u g ` { b q q ` e b u { d r d e d a d { d r q ` a b ' e b f s i h d u ) ( E b h u ` a c r d h
a b c f h i c r b a c { d r q ` a b u p a ` u q r ` q b u c h f d f q ` i d c f c e e ` h c h I w ` e b & s u d h a b E f d r ` n p
u c r c t s c r ` r d h d { r b w ` i d a d i c h q c 3& ;;; f h c d u a c e a ` m b ' e b i d h a b u ) { d r d b o q c h c r s h d
i d q r ` | e b i b f d a c f d Q d o f d 4 ( C f i a s f b e d i d r d a ` { t s c a b e s i c h q d i b u c h c f D { h a ` e c
{ r b ~ c c s h } r d { { c r t s c d s q b i d q ` | d p u ` i { f ` e d h b q d o f c i c h q c c u q d q d r c d p m c h c r d & e b h
s h u b f b e b i d h a b ' u ` i s f d a ` { ) & s h d o d u c a d q b u e b h Q c f c e e ` b h c u u ` i s f d a d u { d r d e d a d
a ` u q r ` q b p { d r q ` a b u ` i ` f d r d f d Q d o f d 4 (
B q r d a ` n c r c h e ` d i u c ~ ` a c h q c c h q r c E f d r ` n p p h s c u q r b d f m b r ` q i b q ` c h c t s c ~ c r e b h f d
h d q s r d f c | d a c f d u e d h q ` a d a c u a c ` h q c r u ( F d f q ` i d f d a c f d Q d o f d 4 r c { r c u c h q d c f h i c r b
a c e s r s f c u a c f { d r q ` a b l & a c h b q d a b { b r l { d r d c f r c u s f q d a b b o u c r ~ d a b & p { b r 'g`{)ql { d r d
f d u r c { f ` e d e ` b h c u g ` { b q q ` e d u ( F d u e d h q ` a d a c u a c ` h q c r u u c b o q ` c h c h e b h f d ` h n b r i d e ` h
4 1
8/9/2019 Un modelo Monte Carlo para la Cmara de Diputados en Mxico
15/34
E s d a r b 4 < C u q r s e q s r d a c f i b a c f b c u q d a u q ` e b a c f d E i d r d a c A ` { s q d a b u ' d a d { q d a d a c M c f
i d h . J ` h m & 4 0 0 1 )
C f c e e ` b h c u g ` { b q q ` e d u
A ` u q r ` q b _ c u s f q d a b b o u c r ~ d a b 4 ? Q
4 ^4l 'g`{)44l 'g`{)?4l 'g`{)Q4l
? ^?l 'g`{)4?l
'g`{)??l
'g`{)Q?l
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
h ^hl 'g`{)4hl
'g`{)?hl
'g`{)Qhl
E d h q ` a d a a c ` h q c r u l 'g`{)4l
'g`{)?l
'g`{)Ql
a c u s r c u { c e q ` ~ d e b f s i h d ( [ d r d e d f e s f d r f d { r ` i c r d r c { f ` e d e ` h 'g`{)4l & a c o c i b u e b h q d r
c f h i c r b a c a ` u q r ` q b u c h t s c c f { d r q ` a b l b o q s ~ b i u ~ b q b u t s c f b u a c i u { d r q ` a b u c h f d
{ r ` i c r d e b f s i h d a c r c { f ` e d e ` b h c u g ` { b q q ` e d u ' f b e s d f r c { r c u c h q d u s h i c r b a c e s r s f c u
s h ` h b i ` h d f c u ) & p f s c m b d u ` m h d r f d u e s r s f c u { f s r ` h b i ` h d f c u d f d u t s c q c h a r d a c r c e g b
a d a d u s ~ b q d e ` h c h q b a b u f b u a ` u q r ` q b u a c c u d i ` u i d e b f s i h d ( C u q c c l c r e ` e ` b u c r c { ` q c
u s e c u ` ~ d i c h q c { d r d e d a d s h d a c f d u c f c e e ` b h c u g ` { b q q ` e d u a c i d h c r d t s c f d f q ` i d f d
a c f d q d o f d c u q n b r i d a d { b r Q u ` i s f d e ` b h c u a c f d a ` u q r ` o s e ` h a c e s r s f c u 'g`{)l (
H d q s r d f i c h q c & c h q r c i d p b r u c d c f h i c r b a c u ` i s f d e ` b h c u Q& f d q d r c d a c b o q c h c r
'g`{) u c q b r h d q c a ` b u d p e b i { f ` e d a d ( [ d r d u b f s e ` b h d r c u q c { r b o f c i d r c u s f q d { r e q ` e b
m c h c r d r s h { r b m r d i d t s c r c d f ` e c f d d u ` m h d e ` h a c e s r s f c u { b r h b u b q r b u ( C f e b i d h a b
d u ` m h d a ` { a c f { d t s c q c e d i d r d a ` { b n r c e c c u d g c r r d i ` c h q d ( [ b r b i ` u ` h & d u ` m h d a ` {
d { f ` e d c f i q b a b a c d u ` m h d e ` h b r a c h d a b { b r c f E B N @ [ C p t s c u c g d s q ` f ` | d a b c h
I w ` e b a c u a c f d c f c e e ` h n c a c r d f a c 4 0 0 = ( A ` e g b i q b a b e b h u ` u q c c h f d d u ` m h d e ` h a c 5 ; ;
a ` { s q d a b u s h ` h b i ` h d f c u { b r f d r c m f d a c i d p b r d r c f d q ` ~ d & f d d u ` m h d e ` h a c ? ; ; a ` { s q d a b u
{ f s r ` h b i ` h d f c u { b r c f i q b a b a c r c u q b i d p b r & p f d r c d u ` m h d e ` h a c e s r s f c u { f s r ` h b i ` h d f c u
e s d h a b s h { d r q ` a b q ` c h c i u a c 5 ; ; e s r s f c u b u s { b r e c h q d l c a c e s r s f c u { b r d i o b u
{ r ` h e ` { ` b u c w e c a c c h 7 { s h q b u b i u c f { b r e c h q d l c a c ~ b q d e ` h h d e ` b h d f b o q c h ` a b (
4 ;
[ c r b d a c i u & f d u b { e ` b h c u a c d u ` m h d a ` { u b h f b u s e ` c h q c i c h q c c w ` o f c u e b i b { d r d
4 ;
[ b r { b r e c h q d l c a c ~ b q d e ` h u c c h q ` c h a c f d ~ b q d e ` h h d e ` b h d f c i ` q ` a d ( C u q d a ` u { b u ` e ` h h b u c d { f ` e d
e s d h a b f d u b o r c r r c { r c u c h q d e ` h u c a c o c d f b u q r ` s h n b u c h a ` u q r ` q b u s h ` h b i ` h d f c u (
4 3
8/9/2019 Un modelo Monte Carlo para la Cmara de Diputados en Mxico
16/34
t s c c f ` h ~ c u q ` m d a b r { s c a d c w { c r ` i c h q d r e b h ~ d r ` b u i q b a b u a c d u ` m h d e ` h : { b r c l c i { f b &
i b a ` e d r c f h i c r b a c e s r s f c u s h ` h b i ` h d f c u p " b { f s r ` h b i ` h d f c u & r c d f ` | d r f d d u ` m h d e ` h
c h ~ d r ` d u e ` r e s h u e r ` { e ` b h c u b c h s h d e ` r e s h u e r ` { e ` h h d e ` b h d f & a ` u i ` h s ` r c f f i ` q c i w ` i b
a c u b o r c r r c { r c u c h q d e ` h & d s i c h q d r c f s i o r d f i h ` i b { d r d q c h c r a c r c e g b d f r c { d r q b a c
e s r s f c u { f s r ` h b i ` h d f c u & c q e (
C h u s n b r i d i u u ` i { f c & c f i b a c f b c u q d a u q ` e b { d r d f d E i d r d a c A ` { s q d a b u { s c a c
` i { f c i c h q d r u c c h U q d q d e b h q r c u u c h e ` f f b u { d u b u ' N ` m s r d ? ) <
Q r d h u n b r i d r f b u { b r e c h q d l c u a c ~ b q b u a c f b u { d r q ` a b u ' ~ 4 & ~ ? & ~ 5 & ~ 1 ) c h f b m
r d q ` b u : c u q ` i d r p u ` i s f d r f b u { d r i c q r b u a c f i b a c f b a c r c m r c u ` h e b h c f e b i d h a b
c u q ` i d a ` {
8/9/2019 Un modelo Monte Carlo para la Cmara de Diputados en Mxico
17/34
( n b r ~ d f s c u ` 9 4 " 4 ; ; ; z
? ( d u ` m h d a ` { { 4 { ? { 5 { 1 ` n R @ A u ` i 9 9 k ` -
5 ( y
E b h s h d u { c t s c d u i b a ` e d e ` b h c u s q ` f ` | d h a b c f e b i d h a b a b u ~ c e c u & d u ` m h d a ` {
u c { s c a c d a d { q d r d f d r c m f d i c h q d e ` h a c f d u e b d f ` e ` b h c u c f c e q b r d f c u ~ ` m c h q c d { d r q ` r a c
f d c f c e e ` h n c a c r d f a c f ? ; ; 0 (
4 4
B q r d a c f d u ~ ` r q s a c u a c d u ` m h d a ` { c u t s c c f s u s d r ` b { s c a c d e e c a c r d f b u r c u s f q d a b u
{ b r i c a ` b a c c u e d f d r c u p i d e r b u m s d r a d a b u c h r ' ) e b h f d n s h e ` h r c q s r h ' U q d q d E b r { &
? ; ; 0 d ) ( C u q d s q ` f c r d c u s h d i d h c r d { r e q ` e d a c m s d r a d r f d u a ` u q r ` o s e ` b h c u a c f h i c r b
a c e s r s f c u c h ~ d r ` d o f c u t s c { s c a c h i d h ` { s f d r u c n e ` f i c h q c e b h b q r b u e b i d h a b u a c c u
q d a u q ` e d a c u e r ` { q ` ~ d (
[ d r d { r c u c h q d r f b u r c u s f q d a b u a c f d h f ` u ` u & f d u a ` u q r ` o s e ` b h c u { s c a c h a c u e r ` o ` r u c e b h
i c a ` a d u a c q c h a c h e ` d e c h q r d f ' c ( m ( & i c a ` d & i b a d & i c a ` d h d ) b i c a ` a d u a c a ` u { c r u ` h
' c ( m ( & a c u ~ ` d e ` b h c u c u q h a d r b { c r e c h q ` f c u t s c a c f ` i ` q d h s h ` h q c r ~ d f b a c e b h d h | d ) ( Q d i
o ` h { s c a c h c n c e q s d r u c { r s c o d u a c g ` { q c u ` u e b h q d h a b f d n r d e e ` h a c ~ c e c u t s c c f h i c r b
a c e s r s f c u a c s h { d r q ` a b c u i d p b r b i c h b r d s h d e ` n r d e s d f t s ` c r d ( [ b r c l c i { f b & { d r d
e d f e s f d r f d { r b o d o ` f ` a d a a c t s c s h { d r q ` a b q c h m d i d p b r d u ` i { f c c h f d E i d r d & o d u q d
e b h u s i d r f d u ~ c e c u t s c c f h i c r b { r c a ` e g b a c e s r s f c u c u ` m s d f b i d p b r d ? 3 4 & p a `
~ ` a ` r f b c h q r c Q( D a c i u & f d a ` u q r ` o s e ` h a c f h i c r b a c e s r s f c u { s c a c q r d h n b r i d r u c c h
b q r d u a ` u q r ` o s e ` b h c u & e b i b f d a c f h i c r b c n c e q ` ~ b a c { d r q ` a b u c h f d f c m ` u f d q s r d & h a ` e c u
a c { b a c r & e b d f ` e ` b h c u i h ` i d u m d h d a b r d u & c q e ( C h f d u ` m s ` c h q c u c e e ` h i b u q r d i b u e i b
c f s u s d r ` b { s c a c c w q r d c r u q d u p b q r d u e d h q ` a d a c u a c ` h q c r u (
4 4
^ d u c c f d r e g ` ~ b a c d p s a d q c e f c d h a b g c f { d u ` m h d a ` { c h f d ~ c h q d h d a c e b i d h a b u a c U q d q d (
4 =
8/9/2019 Un modelo Monte Carlo para la Cmara de Diputados en Mxico
18/34
3 ( D { f ` e d e ` b h c u
3 ( 4 ( C f c e e ` b h c u e b h e s r r c h q c u
C h c u q d u c e e ` h { r c u c h q d i b u s h d d { f ` e d e ` h a c f i b a c f b c u q d a u q ` e b a c f d E i d r d a c
A ` { s q d a b u { d r d c ~ d f s d r s h d r c n b r i d t s c g b i b f b m d c f e d f c h a d r ` b a c f d u c f c e e ` b h c u f b e d f c u
p n c a c r d f c u c h q b a b c f { d u < c u a c e ` r & c f c m ` r d m b o c r h d a b r c u p m b o ` c r h b u f b e d f c u d f i ` u i b
q ` c i { b t s c d f b u a ` { s q d a b u n c a c r d f c u ( F d u c f c e e ` b h c u e b h e s r r c h q c u { s c a c h { r b a s e ` r c n c e
q b u a c d r r d u q r c c h q r c c f ~ b q b { b r c f { r c u ` a c h q c b m b o c r h d a b r e d r m b u s h ` { c r u b h d f c u a c
d f q d ~ ` u ` o ` f ` a d a p c f ~ b q b { b r f b u f c m ` u f d a b r c u n c a c r d f c u b f b e d f c u ' I b h a d j . I e E s r f c p &
4 0 0 1 ) ( C u q c q ` { b a c c n c e q b u u c g d h a b e s i c h q d a b c h { d u c u e b i b D r m c h q ` h d & O r d u ` f p
I w ` e b ' L b h c u & 4 0 0 = : U d i s c f u & ? ; ; ; : I d m d r & ? ; ; > ) (
F b u a d q b u { d r d c f d h f ` u ` u { r b ~ ` c h c h a c f b u e i { s q b u a ` u q r ` q d f c u a c f d c f c e e ` h { d r d
A ` { s q d a b u N c a c r d f c u a c f ? ; ; 0 & d m r c m d a b u { b r a ` u q r ` q b c f c e q b r d f n c a c r d f ' h 9 5;;) ' @ N C &
? ; ; 0 ) ( F d u ~ d r ` d o f c u a c { c h a ` c h q c u u b h c f f b m r d q ` b a c f d { r b { b r e ` h a c ~ b q b u a c f { d h &
{ r ` & { r a & { ~ c i & { q & E b h ~ c r m c h e ` d & p H s c ~ d D f ` d h | d e b h r c u { c e q b d f d { r b { b r e ` h
a c ~ b q b u a c f { u a ( F d ~ d r ` d o f c c w { f ` e d q ` ~ d e f d ~ c c u s h d ~ d r ` d o f c a ` e b q i ` e d t s c q b i d
c f ~ d f b r a c 4 u ` c h s h a ` u q r ` q b u c f f c ~ d r b h d e d o b c f c e e ` b h c u { d r d c f c m ` r M b o c r h d a b r
p " b [ r c u ` a c h q c u I s h ` e ` { d f c u & p ; c h e d u b e b h q r d r ` b ( C w ` u q c h r d | b h c u { d r d u s { b h c r t s c
c f c n c e q b a c f d e b h e s r r c h e ` d q d i o ` h { s c a c ~ c r u c d n c e q d a b { b r c f { d r q ` a b { b f q ` e b t s c
m b o ` c r h d c f c u q d a b : { b r f b q d h q b & ` h e f s ` i b u c h f d r c m r c u ` h f b u q r i ` h b u e b h u q ` q s q ` ~ b u a c
f d ` h q c r d e e ` h c h q r c f d ~ d r ` d o f c a c e b h e s r r c h e ` d p b q r d u a b u ~ d r ` d o f c u t s c ` h a ` e d h u ` c f
c f M b o c r h d a b r a c f c u q d a b c u a c f ` d e ` h { d h ` u q d b { c r r c a ` u q d
4 ?
' O r d i o b r c q d f ( & ? ; ; > ) (
Q d i o ` h ` h e f s ` i b u f d { r b { b r e ` h a c ~ b q b u a c e d a d { d r q ` a b b e b d f ` e ` h c h f d c f c e e ` h
n c a c r d f { r c ~ ` d (
4 5
A c c u q c i b a b & { b a c i b u c u q ` i d r c f c n c e q b a c s h d c f c e e ` h e b h e s r r c h q c
{ d r d f b u a ` n c r c h q c u { d r q ` a b u c h c f m b o ` c r h b c u q d q d f & e b h q r b f d h a b { b r f d n s c r | d c f c e q b r d f
4 ?
F b u m b o ` c r h b u { r ` u q d u u b h f d e d q c m b r d a c r c n c r c h e ` d (
4 5
F b u a c q d f f c u a c f d e b a ` e d e ` h c u q h a ` u { b h ` o f c u { r c ~ ` d u b f ` e ` q s a d f b u d s q b r c u (
4 7
8/9/2019 Un modelo Monte Carlo para la Cmara de Diputados en Mxico
19/34
a c e d a d { d r q ` a b d h ` ~ c f a ` u q r ` q d f ( C u e f d r b t s c c u q d c u { c e ` e d e ` h { b a r d i c l b r d r u c
` h e f s p c h a b b q r d u ~ d r ` d o f c u t s c e d { q s r c h c f { b u ` o f c c n c e q b a c d r r d u q r c a c f d u c f c e e ` b h c u
f b e d f c u : u ` h c i o d r m b & h s c u q r b { r b { u ` q b d t s c u i c r d i c h q c ` f s u q r d r e b h s h c l c i { f b f d
d { f ` e d e ` h a c h s c u q r b i b a c f b c u q d a u q ` e b { d r d s h n c h i c h b a c ` h q c r u (
4 1
E b h c u q c i b a c f b o d u c { b a c i b u c u q ` i d r c f r c u s f q d a b c f c e q b r d f c h a ` u q r ` q b u e b h p
u ` h c f c e e ` b h c u f b e d f c u e b h e s r r c h q c u ( C f u ` m s ` c h q c { d u b e b h u ` u q c c h c u q ` i d r c f r c u s f q d a b
c f c e q b r d f o d l b s h c u e c h d r ` b g ` { b q q ` e b c h t s c q b a b u f b u a ` u q r ` q b u a c f { d u g s o ` c r d h q c h ` a b
c f c e e ` b h c u e b h e s r r c h q c u ( [ d r d g d e c r c u q b & u ` i s f d i b u i ` f r c u s f q d a b u c f c e q b r d f c u l d h a b c f
~ d f b r a c h s c u q r d ~ d r ` d o f c o ` h d r ` d e f d ~ c ' e b h e s r r c h e ` d ) ` m s d f d 4 { d r d q b a b u f b u a ` u q r ` q b u
' p i b a ` e d h a b u s u r c u { c e q ` ~ d u ` h q c r d e e ` b h c u { d r q ` a ` u q d u ) & i ` c h q r d u t s c i d h q c h c i b u d
f d u a c i u ~ d r ` d o f c u c h u s u ~ d f b r c u b o u c r ~ d a b u (
4 3
C f [ d h c f D a c f d N ` m s r d 5 i s c u q r d f d a ` u q r ` o s e ` h a c f ~ b q b a ` u q r ` q d f u ` i s f d a b { d r d f b u
q r c u { r ` h e ` { d f c u { d r q ` a b u { b f q ` e b u & p f b e b i { d r d e b h c f ~ b q b r c d f i c h q c b o u c r ~ d a b c h ? ; ; 0 (
F d u f h c d u u f ` a d u c h e d a d m r e d ` h a ` e d h f d i c a ` d a c e d a d a ` u q r ` o s e ` h u ` i s f d a d o d l b
e b h e s r r c h e ` d & i ` c h q r d u t s c f d u f h c d u { s h q c d a d u r c { r c u c h q d h c f ~ b q b a ` u q r ` q d f { r b i c a ` b
b o u c r ~ d a b & p f d u r c d u u b i o r c d a d u ` h a ` e d h f b u ` h q c r ~ d f b u a c e b h d h | d d f 0 3 # ( E b i b
u c { s c a c d { r c e ` d r & c f r c u s f q d a b c f c e q b r d f { r b i c a ` b g s o ` c r d u ` a b { r e q ` e d i c h q c c f i ` u i b
{ d r d c f { r p { d r d c f { r a ' { c r a c r d h c h { r b i c a ` b i c h b u a c s h { s h q b { b r e c h q s d f c h e d a d
a ` u q r ` q b ) i ` c h q r d u t s c c f { d h b o q c h a r d d { r b w ` i d a d i c h q c a b u { s h q b u { b r e c h q s d f c u i u
c h c f c u e c h d r ` b e b h q r d n d e q s d f ( F d a ` u q d h e ` d c h q r c c f ~ b q b u ` i s f d a b p b o u c r ~ d a b u b f d i c h q c
c u c u q d a u q ` e d i c h q c u ` m h ` e d q ` ~ d c h c f e d u b a c f { d h ( C u q c r c u s f q d a b u c a c o c d t s c c f { d h
b o q s ~ b i u ~ b q b u c h f d u c h q ` a d a c u e b h c f c e e ` b h c u e b h e s r r c h q c u c h ? ; ; 0 t s c c h c f r c u q b
a c f b u c u q d a b u (
4 >
C f c n c e q b t s c c l c r e c h f d u c f c e e ` b h c u e b h e s r r c h q c u u b o r c c f { b r e c h q d l c a c ~ b q b u q ` c h c h
4 1
[ b r c l c i { f b & { b a r d a ` u q ` h m s ` r u c c h q r c f d e b h e s r r c h e ` d a c c f c e e ` b h c u i s h ` e ` { d f c u p n c a c r d f c u & { b r s h
f d a b & p f d a c m b o c r h d a b r c u & { b r b q r b ( [ d r d g d e c r c u q b & c f h i c r b a c ` h q c r d e e ` b h c u { d r q ` a ` u q d u q d i o ` h
q c h a r d t s c a s { f ` e d r u c ( A d a b c f r c a s e ` a b h i c r b a c e d u b u a c c f c e e ` b h c u e b h e s r r c h q c u a c f { r ` i c r q ` { b
c h ? ; ; 0 & c u q ` i d i b u c f c n c e q b a c f d e b h e s r r c h e ` d u ` h g d e c r q d f a ` u q ` h e ` h (
4 3
C f e a ` m b { d r d r c { f ` e d r c u q c d h f ` u ` u c u q a ` u { b h ` o f c { r c ~ ` d u b f ` e ` q s a d f b u d s q b r c u (
4 >
D m r d a c e c i b u d s h a ` e q d i ` h d a b r d h h ` i b { b r u c d f d r c u q c { s h q b (
4 0
8/9/2019 Un modelo Monte Carlo para la Cmara de Diputados en Mxico
20/34
[ d h c f D ;
;
;;
4;
4;;
?;
?;;
5;
5;;
1;
1;;
3;
3;chu ada
Achu`ada
Achu`ada?7
(?7
(?75
(5
(55?
(5?
(5?51
(51
(51bqde`h a`uqr`qdf {rbica`b
^bqde`h a`uqr`qdf {rbica`b
^bqde`h a`uqr`qdf {rbica`bDH[DH
[DH
;
;;
4;
4;;
?;
?;;
5;
5;;
1;
1;chu ada
Achu`ada
Achu`ada51
(51
(515>
(5>
(5>57
(57
(571
(1
(11?
(1?
(1?bqde`h a`uqr`qdf {rbica`b
^bqde`h a`uqr`qdf {rbica`b
^bqde`h a`uqr`qdf {rbica`b_@[_@
[_@
;
;;
?;
?;;
1;
1;;
>;
>;chu ada
Achu`ada
Achu`ada44
(44
(444?
(4?
(4?45
(45
(4541
(41
(4143
(43
(434>
(4>
(4>bqde`h a`uqr`qdf {rbica`b
^bqde`h a`uqr`qdf {rbica`b
^bqde`h a`uqr`qdf {rbica`b_A[_A
[_A
[ d h c f O ;
;
;;?
(;?
(;?;1
(;1
(;1;>
(;>
(;>chu`ada
Achu`ada
Achu`ada1;
41;
41;3;
43;
43;>;
4>;
4>;=;
4=;
4=;7;
47;
47;0;
40;
40;srsfcu
Esrsfcu
EsrsfcuDH[DH
[DH
;
;;?
(;?
(;?;1
(;1
(;1;>
(;>
(;>;7
(;7
(;7chu`ada
Achu`ada
Achu`ada4;
?4;
?4;?;
??;
??;5;
?5;
?5;1;
?1;
?1;3;
?3;
?3;srsfcu
Esrsfcu
Esrsfcu_@[_@
[_@
;
;;?
(;?
(;?;1
(;1
(;1;>
(;>
(;>;7
(;7
(;7chu`ada
Achu`ada
Achu`ada;
1;
1;;
3;
3;;
>;
>;;
=;
=;;
7;
7;srsfcu
Esrsfcu
Esrsfcu_A[_A
[_A
N ` m s r d 5 < [ d h c f D < A ` u q r ` o s e ` h a c a c h u ` a d a a c f d { r b { b r e ` h a ` u q r ` q d f a c ~ b q b u { b r
{ d r q ` a b { b f q ` e b e b h f d r c n b r i d t s c g b i b f b m d c f e d f c h a d r ` b a c f d u c f c e e ` b h c u
n c a c r d f c u p f b e d f c u ( F d u f h c d u ~ c r q ` e d f c u r c { r c u c h q d h f d i c a ` d a c f d a ` u q r ` o s
e ` h u ` i s f d a d : f d u f h c d u { s h q c d a d u ` h a ` e d h f d { r b { b r e ` h a c ~ b q b u b o u c r ~ d a d
c h f d c f c e e ` h n c a c r d f a c ? ; ; 0 ( [ d h c f O < A ` u q r ` o s e ` h a c a c h u ` a d a a c f h i c r b
a c e s r s f c u { b r { d r q ` a b { b f q ` e b e b h f d r c n b r i d t s c g b i b f b m d c f e d f c h a d r ` b
a c f d u c f c e e ` b h c u n c a c r d f c u p f b e d f c u (
d u s ~ c | s h ` i { d e q b c h c f h i c r b a c e s r s f c u { d r d e d a d { d r q ` a b ( C f [ d h c f O a c f d N ` m s r d
5 i s c u q r d f d u a ` u q r ` o s e ` b h c u a c { r b o d o ` f ` a d a a c f h i c r b a c e s r s f c u b o q c h ` a b { b r f b u
{ r ` h e ` { d f c u { d r q ` a b u { b f q ` e b u c h c f c u e c h d r ` b g ` { b q q ` e b ( C u q d u a ` u q r ` o s e ` b h c u u c b o q s
~ ` c r b h d { d r q ` r a c f d u ~ b q d e ` b h c u u ` i s f d a d u c h f d u m r e d u a c f [ d h c f D & p e b h c f i q b a b
a c d u ` m h d e ` h a c e s r s f c u { r c ~ ` u q b c h f d f c p c f c e q b r d f ~ ` m c h q c ( F d u f h c d u u f ` a d u ` h a ` e d h
f d i b a d a c f d u a ` u q r ` o s e ` b h c u & p f d u f h c d u { s h q c d a d u c f h i c r b a c e s r s f c u b o u c r ~ d a b (
E b i b u c d { r c e ` d c h f d m r e d a c f { r & f d r c n b r i d h b d n c e q d r d a c i d h c r d u ` m h ` e d q ` ~ d
c f q d i d b a c u s o d h e d a d & i ` c h q r d u t s c f d a c f { d h d s i c h q d r d c h d { r b w ` i d a d i c h q c 4 7
a ` { s q d a b u p f d a c f { r a a ` u i ` h s ` r d c h d { r b w ` i d a d i c h q c 4 4 a ` { s q d a b u (
? ;
8/9/2019 Un modelo Monte Carlo para la Cmara de Diputados en Mxico
21/34
F d N ` m s r d 1 b n r c e c d f m s h b u c f c i c h q b u { d r d c h q c h a c r i c l b r c u q b u r c u s f q d a b u ( F d u
m r e d u i s c u q r d h f d u i ` u i d u a ` u q r ` o s e ` b h c u a c f [ d h c f O a c f d N ` m s r d 5 & o d l b s h n b r
i d q b t s c c h n d q ` | d c f ~ d f b r { r b i c a ` b a c e d a d a ` u q r ` o s e ` h p a ` u q ` h m s c { b r u c { d r d a b c f
r c u s f q d a b { d r d f b u a ` { s q d a b u s h ` h b i ` h d f c u p { f s r ` h b i ` h d f c u ( C h { r ` i c r f s m d r & f d m r e d
a c f d u e s r s f c u a c i d p b r d i s c u q r d t s c f b u e d i o ` b u t s c { r b a s e c f d r c n b r i d u c r c m ` u q r d h
{ r ` h e ` { d f i c h q c c h c f e b i { b h c h q c i d p b r ` q d r ` b a c f u ` u q c i d c f c e q b r d f ( C f { d h b o q c h a r d 4 0
a ` { s q d a b u s h ` h b i ` h d f c u i u a c f b u t s c e b h u ` m s ` c h ? ; ; 0 & c f { r a 4 ; a ` { s q d a b u i c h b u & p
c f { r 0 a ` { s q d a b u i c h b u ( C u q d u e ` n r d u u s m ` c r c h t s c f b u e d i o ` b u r c f d q ` ~ d i c h q c { c t s c b u
c h c f { b r e c h q d l c a c ~ b q b c u { c r d a b { d r d e d a d { d r q ` a b c h c f [ d h c f D a c f d N ` m s r d 5 b o ` c h
{ r b ~ ` c h c h a c e d i o ` b u d o r s { q b u c h s h b u e s d h q b u a ` u q r ` q b u & b o ` c h d n c e q d h d ~ d r ` b u a ` u
q r ` q b u d f q d i c h q c e b i { c q ` a b u a b h a c c f { d r q ` a b m d h d a b r e d i o ` d a d a b c f c u q r c e g b i d r m c h
a c ~ ` e q b r ` d ( Q b a d ~ c | t s c c f i q b a b r c d f ` | d u ` i s f d e ` b h c u { d r d e d a d a ` u q r ` q b & { b a c i b u
a ` u q ` h m s ` r c h q r c s h b s b q r b q ` { b a c r c u s f q d a b (
C h u c m s h a b f s m d r & f d N ` m s r d 1 i s c u q r d t s c c f h i c r b a c a ` { s q d a b u { f s r ` h b i ` h d f c u
c u i s p { d r c e ` a b d f b o u c r ~ d a b { d r d e d u ` q b a b u f b u { d r q ` a b u ( C u q b c u e b h u ` u q c h q c e b h
c f { r ` h e ` { ` b a c r c { r c u c h q d e ` h { r b { b r e ` b h d f p c f g c e g b a c t s c f d r c n b r i d h b i b a ` e d
u s u q d h e ` d f i c h q c f d ~ b q d e ` h q b q d f a c f b u { d r q ` a b u ( U ` h c i o d r m b & c f ` h q c r ~ d f b a c e b h d h | d
a c f { r c u e b h u ` a c r d o f c i c h q c i u d i { f ` b t s c c f a c f b u a c i u { d r q ` a b u ( C u q b u s e c a c
a c o ` a b d f d e f s u s f d a c u b o r c r r c { r c u c h q d e ` h < c h ? ; ; 0 & d f { r f c n s c r b h a c a s e ` a b u ? =
a ` { s q d a b u { d r d t s c u s { b r e c h q d l c a c e s r s f c u c h f d E i d r d h b c w e c a ` c r d c h i u a c 7
{ s h q b u u s { b r e c h q d l c a c ~ b q d e ` h h d e ` b h d f c n c e q ` ~ d ( A c f d i ` u i d i d h c r d & c h 0 0 ( 1 #
a c f d u c f c e e ` b h c u u ` i s f d a d u & c f { r u c s o ` e a c h q r b a c f b u u s { s c u q b u a c f d e f s u s f d a c
u b o r c r r c { r c u c h q d e ` h ( [ b r f b q d h q b & f d c u q ` i d e ` h a c f h i c r b a c e s r s f c u { f s r ` h b i ` h d f c u
a c f { r r c { r b a s e c f d ` h e c r q ` a s i o r c a c f r c u s f q d a b c h f b u a ` u q r ` q b u a c i d p b r d r c f d q ` ~ d <
e s d h a b b o q ` c h c i c h b u e s r s f c u s h ` h b i ` h d f c u & r c e ` o c i u a c r c { r c u c h q d e ` h { r b { b r e ` b h d f &
p ~ ` e c ~ c r u d ( [ b r c u b & u s h i c r b q b q d f a c e s r s f c u c u i s p { d r c e ` a b d f b o u c r ~ d a b & p u s u
? 4
8/9/2019 Un modelo Monte Carlo para la Cmara de Diputados en Mxico
22/34
70
70
4=3
4=3
?0
?0
1
1
4
4
4
4
;
;
;
;
=;
=;
471
471
50
50
1
1
5
5
;
;
;
;
;
;DH
[DH
[DH_@
[_@
[_@_A
[_A
[_ACI
[^CI
[^CIQ
[Q
[Qbh~
Ebh~
Ebh~D
HD
HDUA
[UA
[UA
;
;;
3;
3;;;
4;;
4;;3;
43;
43;;;
?;;
?;;icrb ac A`{sqdabu
Hicrb ac A`{sqdabu
Hicrb ac A`{sqdabu`{sqdabu Sh`hbi`hdfcu
A`{sqdabu Sh`hbi`hdfcu
A`{sqdabu Sh`hbi`hdfcu
=?
=?
37
37
54
54
41
41
44
44
>
>
=
=
;
;
=5
=5
35
35
5?
5?
4=
4=
4;
4;
>
>
0
0
;
;DH
[DH
[DH_@
[_@
[_@_A
[_A
[_ACI
[^CI
[^CIQ
[Q
[Qbh~
Ebh~
Ebh~D
HD
HDUA
[UA
[UA
;
;;
?;
?;;
1;
1;;
>;
>;;
7;
7;icrb ac A`{sqdabu
Hicrb ac A`{sqdabu
Hicrb ac A`{sqdabu`{sqdabu [fsr`hbi`hdfcu
A`{sqdabu [fsr`hbi`hdfcu
A`{sqdabu [fsr`hbi`hdfcu
4>4
4>4
?55
?55
>;
>;
47
47
4?
4?
=
=
=
=
;
;
415
415
?5=
?5=
=4
=4
?4
?4
45
45
>
>
0
0
;
;DH
[DH
[DH_@
[_@
[_@_A
[_A
[_ACI
[^CI
[^CIQ
[Q
[Qbh~
Ebh~
Ebh~D
HD
HDUA
[UA
[UA
;
;;
3;
3;;;
4;;
4;;3;
43;
43;;;
?;;
?;;3;
?3;
?3;icrb ac A`{sqdabu
Hicrb ac A`{sqdabu
Hicrb ac A`{sqdabu`{sqdabu Qbqdfcu
A`{sqdabu Qbqdfcu
A`{sqdabu Qbqdfcu
N ` m s r d 1 < H i c r b a c A ` { s q d a b u { b r { d r q ` a b { b f q ` e b ( F b u { s h q b u r c { r c u c h q d h f d i c a ` d
a c f d a ` u q r ` o s e ` h a c { r b o d o ` f ` a d a a c f h i c r b a c e s r s f c u e b h f d r c n b r i d t s c
g b i b f b m d c f e d f c h a d r ` b a c f d u c f c e e ` b h c u n c a c r d f c u p f b e d f c u ( F b u e r e s f b u
` h a ` e d h c f h i c r b a c e s r s f c u b o u c r ~ d a b c h f d c f c e e ` h n c a c r d f a c ? ; ; 0 ( F d u
f h c d u g b r ` | b h q d f c u r c { r c u c h q d h ` h q c r ~ d f b u a c e b h d h | d d f 0 3 # (
` h q c r ~ d f b u a c e b h d h | d u b h r c f d q ` ~ d i c h q c c u q r c e g b u (
B q r d i d h c r d a c { r c u c h q d r f b u r c u s f q d a b u a c f i b a c f b c u d q r d ~ u a c { r s c o d u a c g ` { q c
u ` u ( C h f s m d r a c s q ` f ` | d r c u q ` i d e ` b h c u { s h q s d f c u c ` h q c r ~ d f b u a c e b h d h | d & f d u m r e d u
a c f d N ` m s r d 3 h b u { c r i ` q c h q r d h u i ` q ` r h s c u q r b u r c u s f q d a b u c h q r i ` h b u { r b o d o ` f u q ` e b u (
E d a d m r e d ` h a ` e d f d { r b o d o ` f ` a d a a c t s c c f h i c r b a c e s r s f c u a c s h { d r q ` a b u c d i d p b r
b ` m s d f d e ` c r q d e ` n r d b { r b { b r e ` h a c ` h q c r u ( F d e b h u q r s e e ` h a c c u q d u m r e d u c u i s p
u c h e ` f f d : { b r c l c i { f b & { d r d d ~ c r ` m s d r f d { r b o d o ` f ` a d a a c t s c s h { d r q ` a b q c h m d d f i c h b u
4 ; ; e s r s f c u e b h f d r c n b r i d & o d u q d e b h r c m ` u q r d r c f h i c r b a c u ` i s f d e ` b h c u c h t s c c u c
{ d r q ` a b q ` c h c i u a c 4 ; ; e s r s f c u & p f s c m b a ` ~ ` a ` r f b c h q r c c f q b q d f a c f d u u ` i s f d e ` b h c u (
E d o c i c h e ` b h d r t s c f d a ` u q r ` o s e ` h a c f h i c r b a c e s r s f c u q d i o ` h u c { s c a c q r d h u
n b r i d r n e ` f i c h q c c h b q r d u a ` u q r ` o s e ` b h c u a c ` h q c r u ( [ b r c l c i { f b & { b a c i b u d { r b w ` i d r
? ?
8/9/2019 Un modelo Monte Carlo para la Cmara de Diputados en Mxico
23/34
;
;
;?
(?
(?1
(1
(1>
(>
(>7
(7
(7
4
4rbodo`f`ada
[rbodo`f`ada
[rbodo`f`ada
;
;;
3;
3;;;
4;;
4;;3;
43;
43;;;
?;;
?;;icrb ac esrsfcu
Hicrb ac esrsfcu
Hicrb ac esrsfcuDH
[DH
[DH
;
;?
(?
(?1
(1
(1>
(>
(>7
(7
(7
4
4rbodo`f`ada
[rbodo`f`ada
[rbodo`f`ada
;
;;
3;
3;;;
4;;
4;;3;
43;
43;;;
?;;
?;;icrb ac esrsfcu
Hicrb ac esrsfcu
Hicrb ac esrsfcu_@
[_@
[_@
;
;?
(?
(?1
(1
(1>
(>
(>7
(7
(7
4
4rbodo`f`ada
[rbodo`f`ada
[rbodo`f`ada
;
;;
3;
3;;;
4;;
4;;3;
43;
43;;;
?;;
?;;icrb ac esrsfcu
Hicrb ac esrsfcu
Hicrb ac esrsfcu_A
[_A
[_Asrsfcu Sh`hbi`hdfcuEsrsfcu Sh`hbi`hdfcu
Esrsfcu Sh`hbi`hdfcu
;
;
;?
(?
(?1
(1
(1>
(>
(>7
(7
(7
4
4rbodo`f`ada
[rbodo`f`ada
[rbodo`f`ada
;
;;
3;
3;;;
4;;
4;;3;
43;
43;;;
?;;
?;;icrb ac esrsfcu
Hicrb ac esrsfcu
Hicrb ac esrsfcuDH
[DH
[DH
;
;?
(?
(?1
(1
(1>
(>
(>7
(7
(7
4
4rbodo`f`ada
[rbodo`f`ada
[rbodo`f`ada
;
;;
3;
3;;;
4;;
4;;3;
43;
43;;;
?;;
?;;icrb ac esrsfcu
Hicrb ac esrsfcu
Hicrb ac esrsfcu_@
[_@
[_@
;
;?
(?
(?1
(1
(1>
(>
(>7
(7
(7
4
4rbodo`f`ada
[rbodo`f`ada
[rbodo`f`ada
;
;;
3;
3;;;
4;;
4;;3;
43;
43;;;
?;;
?;;icrb ac esrsfcu
Hicrb ac esrsfcu
Hicrb ac esrsfcu_A
[_A
[_Asrsfcu [fsr`hbi`hdfcuEsrsfcu [fsr`hbi`hdfcu
Esrsfcu [fsr`hbi`hdfcu
N ` m s r d 3 < [ r b o d o ` f ` a d a a c t s c e d a d { d r q ` a b { b f q ` e b b o q c h m d i u a c e ` c r q b h i c r b a c
e s r s f c u e b h f d r c n b r i d t s c g b i b f b m d c f e d f c h a d r ` b a c f d u c f c e e ` b h c u n c a c r d f c u
p f b e d f c u ( F d u f h c d u ~ c r q ` e d f c u ` h a ` e d h c f h i c r b a c e s r s f c u b o u c r ~ d a b c h f d
c f c e e ` h n c a c r d f a c ? ; ; 0 (
f d a ` u q r ` o s e ` h a c f h a ` e c a c O d h | g d n ' 4 0 > 1 ) & b a c f h i c r b c n c e q ` ~ b a c { d r q ` a b u & e d f
e s f h a b f b u { d r d e d a d u ` i s f d e ` h a c f d e b h n b r i d e ` h g ` { b q q ` e d a c f d E i d r d (
3 ( ? ( A ` u i ` h s e ` h a c f h i c r b a c e s r s f c u { f s r ` h b i ` h d f c u
C h c u q d u c e e ` h ` f s u q r d i b u s h d d { f ` e d e ` h a c h s c u q r b i q b a b c u q d a u q ` e b { d r d c ~ d f
s d r s h d r c n b r i d t s c a ` u i ` h s p c c f h i c r b a c e s r s f c u { f s r ` h b i ` h d f c u c h f d E i d r d a c
A ` { s q d a b u : c u a c e ` r & c u q d r c n b r i d i b a ` e d c f i q b a b a c d u ` m h d e ` h a c e s r s f c u ( F b d h
? 5
8/9/2019 Un modelo Monte Carlo para la Cmara de Diputados en Mxico
24/34
q c r ` b r u ` m h ` e d t s c c f i b a c f b a c r c m r c u ` h u ` r ~ c h ` e d i c h q c { d r d { d r d u c { d r d r d f b u
n d e q b r c u u ` u q c i q ` e b u ' { r c n c r c h e ` d u a c f b u ~ b q d h q c u ) a c f b u d f c d q b r ` b u ' c ~ c h q b u n b r q s ` q b u &
e b i b c r r b r c u g s i d h b u c h c f e b h q c b a c f b u ~ b q b u ) ' M c f i d h . J ` h m & 4 0 0 1 : J ` h m c q d f ( &
4 0 0 1 ) ( Q d i o ` h u ` m h ` e d t s c c f e r ` q c r ` b { r ` h e ` { d f { d r d u c f c e e ` b h d r d f d u ~ d r ` d o f c u c w
{ f ` e d q ` ~ d u c u t s c d p s a c h d { r c a c e ` r f b i c l b r { b u ` o f c f d u ~ d r ` d o f c u a c { c h a ` c h q c u ' M c f i d h
. G ` f f & ? ; ; = ) (
F b u a d q b u { d r d c f d h f ` u ` u { r b ~ ` c h c h a c f b u e i { s q b u a ` u q r ` q d f c u a c f d c f c e e ` h a c
A ` { s q d a b u N c a c r d f c u a c f ? ; ; > & d m r c m d a b u { b r a ` u q r ` q b c f c e q b r d f n c a c r d f ' h 9 5;;) ' @ N C &
? ; ; > ) ( F d u ~ d r ` d o f c u a c { c h a ` c h q c u u b h f b u f b m r d q ` b u a c f d { r b { b r e ` h a c ~ b q b u a c f { d h &
f d D f ` d h | d { b r I w ` e b ' d { i 9 { r * { ~ c i ) & f d E b d f ` e ` h { b r c f O ` c h a c Q b a b u ' { o q
9 { r a * { q * E b h ~ c r m c h e ` d ) p H s c ~ d D f ` d h | d ' h d ) & e b h r c u { c e q b d f d { r b { b r e ` h a c
~ b q b u a c f { d r q ` a b D f q c r h d q ` ~ d ' d u a e ) ( F d u ~ d r ` d o f c u c w { f ` e d q ` ~ d u u b h f b u f b m r d q ` b u a c f d
{ r b { b r e ` h a c ~ b q b u t s c c u b u i ` u i b u { d r q ` a b u b o q s ~ ` c r b h c h f d c f c e e ` h { r c u ` a c h e ` d f a c
? ; ; > & p a b u ~ d r ` d o f c u a ` e b q i ` e d u t s c ` h a ` e d h u ` c f { d h b c f { r a b o q s ~ ` c r b h i u ~ b q b u
t s c c f r c u q b a c f b u { d r q ` a b u c h f d c f c e e ` h { d r d A ` { s q d a b u N c a c r d f c u a c f ? ; ; 5 (
4 =
[ s c u q b
t s c c f b o l c q ` ~ b a c f d r c m r c u ` h c u { r c a c e ` r c f r c u s f q d a b c f c e q b r d f & d f u ` i s f d r ~ d f b r c u a c f d
a ` u q r ` o s e ` h g`{`l l d i b u f b u ~ d f b r c u a c f d u ~ d r d o f c u c w { f ` e d q ` ~ d u c h u s u ~ d f b r c u r c d f c u &
W'g`{)` 9 W (
T s c n c e q b q ` c h c c u q d r c n b r i d c h f d e b i { b u ` e ` h a c f d E i d r d a c A ` { s q d a b u 2 F d
N ` m s r d > i s c u q r d f d d u ` m h d e ` h a c e s r s f c u t s c b e s r r ` c h ? ; ; > p f d e b i { d r d e b h f d
a ` u q r ` o s e ` h a c f h i c r b a c e s r s f c u c h s h c u e c h d r ` b e b h q r d n d e q s d f e b h u f b 4 ; ; d u ` c h q b u
a c r c { r c u c h q d e ` h { r b { b r e ` b h d f ( F b u { s h q b u ` h a ` e d h f d i c a ` d a c f d u a ` u q r ` o s e ` b h c u a c
{ r b o d o ` f ` a d a & f d u f h c d u g b r ` | b h q d f c u a c h b q d h f b u ` h q c r ~ d f b u a c e b h d h | d d f 0 3 # & p f b u
e r e s f b u c f h i c r b a c e s r s f c u b o u c r ~ d a b c h ? ; ; > ( E b i b u c { s c a c d { r c e ` d r & c u q d r c n b r i d
u f b d n c e q d d f d u a ` { s q d e ` b h c u { f s r ` h b i ` h d f c u & { b r f b t s c f d u a ` n c r c h e ` d u c h c f h i c r b
a c e s r s f c u s h ` h b i ` h d f c u c h q r c c f r c u s f q d a b b o u c r ~ d a b p h s c u q r b c u e c h d r ` b g ` { b q q ` e b
4 =
F b u a ` u q r ` q b u m d h d a b u { b r c f { r c h ? ; ; 5 u b h f d e d q c m b r d a c r c n c r c h e ` d ( F b u a d q b u e b h u ` a c r d h c f
{ r b e c u b a c r c a ` u q r ` q d e ` h t s c b e s r r ` c h q r c ? ; ; 5 p ? ; ; > (
? 1
8/9/2019 Un modelo Monte Carlo para la Cmara de Diputados en Mxico
25/34
u b h i s p { c t s c d u & p q c r ` e d i c h q c u c a c o c h d c ~ c h q b u d f c d q b r ` b u ( C h e d i o ` b & q b a b u f b u
{ d r q ` a b u i s c u q r d h s h d r c a s e e ` h c h c f h i c r b a c e s r s f c u { f s r ` h b i ` h d f c u d e b h u c e s c h e ` d
a c f d r c a s e e ` h a c f q d i d b a c f e b h m r c u b (
455
455
>=
>=
00
00
;
;
;
;
45=
45=
>3
>3
07
07
;
;
;
;DH
[DH
[DH[I
D[I
D[IOQ
[OQ
[OQD
HD
HDUAE
DUAE
DUAE
;
;;
3;
3;;;
4;;
4;;3;
43;
43;icrb ac A`{sqdabu
Hicrb ac A`{sqdabu
Hicrb ac A`{sqdabu`{sqdabu Sh`hbi`hdfcuA`{sqdabu Sh`hbi`hdfcu
A`{sqdabu Sh`hbi`hdfcu
51
51
54
54
5;
5;
3
3
?
?
>0
>0
37
37
>;
>;
0
0
1
1DH
[DH
[DH[I
D[I
D[IOQ
[OQ
[OQD
HD
HDUAE
DUAE
DUAE
;
;;
?;
?;;
1;
1;;
>;
>;;
7;
7;icrb ac A`{sqdabu
Hicrb ac A`{sqdabu
Hicrb ac A`{sqdabu`{sqdabu [fsr`hbi`hdfcuA`{sqdabu [fsr`hbi`hdfcu
A`{sqdabu [fsr`hbi`hdfcu
4>=
4>=
07
07
45;
45;
3
3
?
?
?;>
?;>
4?5
4?5
437
437
0
0
1
1DH
[DH
[DH[I
D[I
D[IOQ
[OQ
[OQD
HD
HDUAE
DUAE
DUAE
;
;;
3;
3;;;
4;;
4;;3;
43;
43;;;
?;;
?;;icrb ac A`{sqdabu
Hicrb ac A`{sqdabu
Hicrb ac A`{sqdabu`{sqdabu QbqdfcuA`{sqdabu Qbqdfcu
A`{sqdabu Qbqdfcu
N ` m s r d > < H i c r b a c A ` { s q d a b u { b r { d r q ` a b { b f q ` e b ( F b u e r e s f b u ` h a ` e d h c f h i c r b
a c e s r s f c u b o u c r ~ d a b c h f d c f c e e ` h n c a c r d f a c ? ; ; > ( F b u { s h q b u r c { r c u c h q d h
f d i c a ` d a c f d a ` u q r ` o s e ` h a c { r b o d o ` f ` a d a a c f h i c r b a c e s r s f c u e b h f d
r c n b r i d t s c a ` u i ` h s p c c h 4 ; ; c f h i c r b a c a ` { s q d a b u { f s r ` h b i ` h d f c u ( F d u
f h c d u g b r ` | b h q d f c u u ` i o b f ` | d h ` h q c r ~ d f b u a c e b h d h | d d f 0 3 # (
E b i b u c { s c a c b o u c r ~ d r & f d r c n b r i d t s c r c a s e c c f h i c r b a c e s r s f c u { f s r ` h b i ` h d f c u
c h 3 ; # u c q r d a s e c c h s h d a ` u i ` h s e ` h e d u ` { r b { b r e ` b h d f a c a ` { s q d e ` b h c u { f s r ` h b i ` h d f c u
{ d r d q b a b u f b u { d r q ` a b u ( C u q b u ` m h ` e d t s c c h q r i ` h b u { b r e c h q s d f c u & { r e q ` e d i c h q c h b
c w ` u q c h a ` n c r c h e ` d u c h q r c f d e b i { b u ` e ` h b o u c r ~ d a d a c f d E i d r d p c f c u e c h d r ` b g ` { b q q `
e b ( F d Q d o f d ? i s c u q r d c f { b r e c h q d l c a c e s r s f c u t s c f b u { d r q ` a b u r c e ` o ` c r b h c h f d c f c e e ` h
a c ? ; ; > & p f b e b i { d r d q d h q b e b h c f { b r e c h q d l c a c ~ b q b u b o q c h ` a b u e b i b e b h c f { b r e c h q d l c
a c e s r s f c u t s c g s o ` c r d h b o q c h ` a b e b h f d r c n b r i d ( F d a ` n c r c h e ` d c h q r c ~ b q b u p e s r s f c u
` f s u q r d c f u c u m b i d p b r
Recommended