Kees van der Geest "El reto social de las Migraciones Climáticas"

Simposio Migraciones Climáticas

Sesión 4: El reto socialMadrid, 22 November 2016

Dr Kees van der GeestUnited Nations University, Bonn

Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS)

Quienes somos: UNU-EHS/EMSVA• Section: Environmental Migration, Social Vulnerability and

Adaptation (EMSVA), established by Dr Koko Warner• Colleagues: Tamer Afifi, Christina Rademacher-Schultz, Robert

Oakes, Cosmin Corendea• Focus : Relationship between environmental change & human

mobility• Increasingly, the focus is on climate change• Pioneers in this field:• EACH-FOR (2007-2009): 23 case studies (Global)• Rainfalls (2010-2012): 8 case studies (Global)• PCCM (2013-2016): 3 case studies (Pacific region)• MECLEP (2014-2016): 6 case studies (Global)

• And in the field of Loss and Damage (empirical research in 12 countries since 2012)

Advisory Committee Meeting, Bonn, Germany, 24-25 September, 2008

Complex problems require mixed method research and the knowledge and

skills of different disciplines

EACH-FOR: Environmental Change & Forced Migration Scenarios (EU-FP6)

Tajikistan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Egypt

Turkey

Mozambique

Vietnam

Morocco

Ghana

Senegal

Niger

Dominican Republic, Haiti

Mexico

Ecuador

Argentina

Russia

China

Tuvalu

Bangladesh

Spain

The Balkans

WesternSahara

Tajikistan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Egypt

Turkey

Mozambique

Vietnam

Morocco

Ghana

Senegal

Niger

Dominican Republic, Haiti

Mexico

Ecuador

Argentina

Russia

China

Tuvalu

Bangladesh

Spain

The Balkans

WesternSahara

“Where the rain falls” - with CARE International

Pacif

ic Cl

imat

e Ch

ange

and

Mig

ratio

n (P

CCM

)

MECLEP: Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Evidence for Policy

Changing questions: •EACH-FOR: • Exploratory question: Is there a relation between

environmental change and human mobility?

• “Where the rain falls”: • “Under which conditions do people use migration as a

response to climate stressors?”

•PCCM + MECCLEP• How to optimize migration outcomes?

Environment Migration

EnvironmentDevelopment;

Livelihoods;Food security;

Poverty

Migration

EACH-FOR

Foresight report (2011)

Resilience to climatic stressors Vulnerability to climatic stressors

Migration improves HH

resilience

Migration used to survive, but not

flourish

Migration erosive coping strategy

Migration not an option: trapped

populations• Economy: poor• Adaptation options:

access to livelihoods options &assets (social, economic, political), • Education: Children have

3-5 years more education than parents•Migrant: early 20s, single;

temporal migration• Remittances: education,

livelihood diversification, health

• Economy: chronically food insecure, landless, Female -headed HH

• Adaptation options: insufficient assets to adapt locally or through migration

• Education:• Migrant: not feasible• Remittances: none.

Abandoned / trapped populations

• Economy: landless• Adaptation options: few

adaptation options in situ, inability to diversify

• Education: All HH members have low or no education / skill levels

• Migrant: HH Head, mid 40s, migration in hunger season

• Remittances: Partial success in obtaining food or money to buy food

• Economy: land scarce• Adaptation options: less

access to assets & institutions for support• Education: Children have

same education level as parents•Migrant: HH Head, mid

40s, migration in hunger season• Remittances: Success in

obtaining food or money to buy food

Global results: 4 household profiles

Trapped populations: People who are not able to migrate from places in which they are vulnerable to environmental stressors because they lack the means to move or because there are no suitable migration destinations (Foresight, 2011).

Environmental hazards already impacting people

Environment already triggering migration

Different patterns of migration 2005-2015

Kiribati Tuvalu

International Internal Trapped No movement

Nauru

¿Dónde se están produciendo las mayores migraciones climáticas?

• En muchos sitios donde… • … Rain-fed agriculture• … Close to subsistence• … Low livelihood diversification• … Access to migration opportunities (if not: trapped)

• En pocos sitios donde…• … Impactos de cambio climático ya han hecho lugares

“no-habitables”

¿A qué nos enfrentamos desde el punto de vista social en los países de origen?• Cambios y extremos climáticos son una realidad• Amenaza los fuentes de comida y ingresos y la seguridad de

mucha gente, sobre todo los mas pobres•Muchas veces se puede adaptar un situ sin migrarse, pero a

veces migración es la única opción y frecuentemente es una buena opción.• Tambien existen casos en que gente debería migrar pero no

puede (trapped populations)

ContinuumForcedDisplacementLast resortLoss and damage

VoluntaryMigrationPro-active

Adaptation

• Enable adaptive migration which improves the situation of migrants and their families; Avoid forced migration that disrupts and leaves people worse’off.• Act in time! Pro-active migration versus distress migration• The power of language: Assisted migration versus Resettlement

Last thought

When migration is a choice, people do not feel the losses as much as when they are forced to move.

THANK YOU!

Contact: geest@ehs.unu.edu