18 de marzo

NUEVA FORMULA Y1=Bo+B1Xi+B2X2++BnXn+ei

En las tablas del licbro de econometrics la primera tabla que aparece es la variable dependiente osea en este caso costo COSTOS VS. TODAS LAS VARIABLES INDEPENDIENTES MIRAR SI EL MODELO ES SIGNIFICATIVA EL QUE TENGA R^2 ESTIMAR MODELOS CON 2 VARIABLES ESTIMAR CON 3 Y SEGUIR HASTA N PL ES LA QUE TIENES R^2 ES PL

DATOS COMPLETOS YearCost(y) KLEMPkPlPePm1947182.370.050.250.040.661.001.001.001.001948183.160.060.280.050.611.001.151.301.061949186.530.050.260.050.640.741.161.201.071950221.710.050.250.050.660.921.241.121.121951255.950.050.250.040.651.051.341.251.221952264.700.050.270.040.641.001.381.281.201953291.160.050.270.040.641.011.431.281.191954274.460.060.270.050.621.091.451.301.211955308.910.050.260.050.641.101.511.341.241956328.290.050.270.050.641.001.581.371.291957338.630.050.270.050.631.061.651.381.311958323.320.060.270.050.621.161.671.391.331959358.440.060.270.050.621.311.731.371.311960366.250.060.280.050.621.251.781.381.341961366.160.060.280.050.621.261.821.381.341962390.670.060.280.050.621.271.891.381.351963412.190.060.280.040.621.321.931.351.331964433.770.050.280.040.621.332.011.391.351965474.970.050.280.040.621.412.061.391.381966521.290.050.280.040.621.452.131.401.421967540.940.050.290.040.621.392.211.391.421968585.450.060.290.040.611.502.341.431.431969630.450.050.290.040.621.452.461.461.531970623.470.050.300.040.611.322.611.461.551971658.240.050.290.040.621.202.761.651.55

Resumen(1)

Estadsticas de la regresinF2.5910961799Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple0.9972618738Coeficiente de determinacin R^20.9945312449Elimino variables no significativas la primera que elimino con dos posibles opciones la que tenga la t mas cercana a cero o la probablidad mas alta R^2 ajustado0.9917968673Error tpico13.0993551371Observaciones25

ANLISIS DE VARIANZAGrados de libertadSuma de cuadradosPromedio de los cuadradosFValor crtico de FRegresin8499286.43841724262410.8048021553363.71394293190Residuos162745.4896801181171.5931050074Total24502031.92809736

CoeficientesError tpicoEstadstico tProbabilidadInferior 95%Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%Superior 95,0%Intercepcin21161.123952574380822.09924164520.26182348830.7967982819-150174.072523976192496.320429124-150174.072523976192496.320429124Variable X 1-20091.561292424979938.0853018451-0.25133903590.8047515284-189552.731933407149369.609348557-189552.731933407149369.609348557Variable X 2-20377.200483453780851.3628892753-0.25203286320.8042245124-191774.433121689151020.032154782-191774.433121689151020.032154782Variable X 3-30621.560606906781602.190825636-0.37525414820.7123994778-203610.477366237142367.356152423-203610.477366237142367.356152423Variable X 4-20934.886367701980831.2675651431-0.25899490380.7989417398-192289.51882182150419.746086416-192289.51882182150419.746086416Variable X 5-87.55412479895.1690215933-0.91998555130.3712432562-289.3034379953114.1951883992-289.3034379953114.1951883992Variable X 6288.076261283531.28611408639.20779936070.0000000855221.7526622398354.3998603271221.7526622398354.3998603271Como es menor a 0,05 % es la nica variable significativa Variable X 729.249443361471.55642589580.4087605410.6881343032-122.4434030885180.9422898112-122.4434030885180.9422898112Variable X 8-42.55662224598.2650071225-0.43308013190.6707381489-250.8691315719165.755887082-250.8691315719165.755887082

DATOS SIN K YearCost(y) LEMPkPlPePm1947182.370.250.040.661.001.001.001.001948183.160.280.050.611.001.151.301.061949186.530.260.050.640.741.161.201.071950221.710.250.050.660.921.241.121.121951255.950.250.040.651.051.341.251.221952264.700.270.040.641.001.381.281.201953291.160.270.040.641.011.431.281.191954274.460.270.050.621.091.451.301.211955308.910.260.050.641.101.511.341.241956328.290.270.050.641.001.581.371.291957338.630.270.050.631.061.651.381.311958323.320.270.050.621.161.671.391.331959358.440.270.050.621.311.731.371.311960366.250.280.050.621.251.781.381.341961366.160.280.050.621.261.821.381.341962390.670.280.050.621.271.891.381.351963412.190.280.040.621.321.931.351.331964433.770.280.040.621.332.011.391.351965474.970.280.040.621.412.061.391.381966521.290.280.040.621.452.131.401.421967540.940.290.040.621.392.211.391.421968585.450.290.040.611.502.341.431.431969630.450.290.040.621.452.461.461.531970623.470.300.040.611.322.611.461.551971658.240.290.040.621.202.761.651.55

Resumen(2)

Estadsticas de la regresinCoeficiente de correlacin mltiple0.9972510482Coeficiente de determinacin R^20.9945096531R^2 ajustado0.992248922Error tpico12.7333038121Observaciones25


CoeficientesError tpicoEstadstico tProbabilidadInferior 95%Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%Superior 95,0%Intercepcin853.20759644251882.45392285850.45324222070.6561061-3118.42301455794824.8382074428-3118.42301455794824.8382074428Variable X 1-61.75624111931854.6981710684-0.0332971920.9738254217-3974.82733461843851.3148523798-3974.82733461843851.3148523798Variable X 2-10146.37138563224607.3329480715-2.20222230520.0417417401-19866.9942117382-425.7485595262-19866.9942117382-425.7485595262Variable X 3-624.34273538611829.7083715586-0.34122527120.7371151489-4484.68996059263236.0044898203-4484.68996059263236.0044898203Variable X 4-79.597638126587.2417519004-0.91238009770.3743264309-263.6616453234104.4663690705-263.6616453234104.4663690705Variable X 5288.674612886830.32367548919.51977648590.0000000317224.6972499628352.6519758109224.6972499628352.6519758109Variable X 628.769004641269.53201450640.4137519220.6842286579-117.9307227226175.468732005-117.9307227226175.468732005Variable X 7-49.953004107991.135140361-0.54812012040.5907350444-242.2313429295142.3253347137-242.2313429295142.3253347137

DATOS SIN L YearCost(y) EMPkPlPePm1947182.370.040.661.001.001.001.001948183.160.050.611.001.151.301.061949186.530.050.640.741.161.201.071950221.710.050.660.921.241.121.121951255.950.040.651.051.341.251.221952264.700.040.641.001.381.281.201953291.160.040.641.011.431.281.191954274.460.050.621.091.451.301.211955308.910.050.641.101.511.341.241956328.290.050.641.001.581.371.291957338.630.050.631.061.651.381.311958323.320.050.621.161.671.391.331959358.440.050.621.311.731.371.311960366.250.050.621.251.781.381.341961366.160.050.621.261.821.381.341962390.670.050.621.271.891.381.351963412.190.040.621.321.931.351.331964433.770.040.621.332.011.391.351965474.970.040.621.412.061.391.381966521.290.040.621.452.131.401.421967540.940.040.621.392.211.391.421968585.450.040.611.502.341.431.431969630.450.040.621.452.461.461.531970623.470.040.611.322.611.461.551971658.240.040.621.202.761.651.55

Resumen(3)



CoeficientesError tpicoEstadstico tProbabilidadInferior 95%Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%Superior 95,0%Intercepcin793.0572864662514.53963031021.54129485810.1406415886-287.950363431874.0649363624-287.950363431874.0649363624Variable X 1-10018.72097082442483.5650189223-4.03400792590.0007785766-15236.4974574498-4800.9444841989-15236.4974574498-4800.9444841989Variable X 2-566.7765735215582.2048557961-0.97350025150.3432065825-1789.9435869989656.3904399558-1789.9435869989656.3904399558Variable X 3-77.276204374950.9686836862-1.51615067890.1468463998-184.357435293229.8050265435-184.357435293229.8050265435Variable X 4288.234475441826.522932673310.86736821270.0000000024232.5118616167343.9570892669232.5118616167343.9570892669Variable X 528.073531059964.45427449840.435557320.6683361023-107.3398748215163.4869369412-107.3398748215163.4869369412Variable X 6-49.691957525288.2419927434-0.56313276680.5802921996-235.0815049545135.6975899041-235.0815049545135.6975899041

COSTOVS.LCost(y) L182.370.25Resumen183.160.28186.530.26Estadsticas de la regresin221.710.25Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple0.8592436413255.950.25Coeficiente de determinacin R^20.7382996351264.700.27R^2 ajustado0.7269213583291.160.27Error tpico75.5794827191274.460.27Observaciones25308.910.26328.290.27ANLISIS DE VARIANZA338.630.27Grados de libertadSuma de cuadradosPromedio de los cuadradosFValor crtico de F323.320.27Regresin1370649.989311338370649.98931133864.88677083720.0000000381358.440.27Residuos23131381.9387860225712.2582080879366.250.28Total24502031.92809736366.160.28390.670.28CoeficientesError tpicoEstadstico tProbabilidadInferior 95%Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%Superior 95,0%412.190.28Intercepcin-2267.602680315329.1349247453-6.88958390570.0000005037-2948.4701472441-1586.7352133859-2948.4701472441-1586.7352133859433.770.28Variable X 19649.70116022191197.94197681348.05523251290.00000003817171.569373046312127.83294739757171.569373046312127.8329473975474.970.28521.290.28540.940.29585.450.29630.450.29623.470.30658.240.29

COSTOVS.ECost(y) E182.370.04Resumen183.160.05186.530.05Estadsticas de la regresin221.710.05Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple0.6702266053255.950.04Coeficiente de determinacin R^20.4492037024264.700.04R^2 ajustado0.4252560373291.160.04Error tpico109.6471271386274.460.05Observaciones25308.910.05328.290.05ANLISIS DE VARIANZA338.630.05Grados de libertadSuma de cuadradosPromedio de los cuadradosFValor crtico de F323.320.05Regresin1225514.600833352225514.60083335218.75772440910.000246732358.440.05Residuos23276517.32726400812022.4924897395366.250.05Total24502031.92809736366.160.05390.670.05CoeficientesError tpicoEstadstico tProbabilidadInferior 95%Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%Superior 95,0%412.190.04Intercepcin1780.2353451205323.84909801515.49711379790.00001370941110.30244388412450.16824635681110.30244388412450.1682463568433.770.04Variable X 1-31221.88077572897208.8997413338-4.3310188650.000246732-46134.6260883869-16309.1354630709-46134.6260883869-16309.1354630709474.970.04521.290.04540.940.04585.450.04630.450.04623.470.04658.240.04

COSTOVS.CAPITAL Cost(y) K182.370.05Resumen183.160.06186.530.05Estadsticas de la regresin221.710.05Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple0.1323895895255.950.05Coeficiente de determinacin R^20.0175270034264.700.05R^2 ajustado-0.0251892138291.160.05Error tpico146.4407897532274.460.06Observaciones25308.910.05328.290.05ANLISIS DE VARIANZA338.630.05Grados de libertadSuma de cuadradosPromedio de los cuadradosFValor crtico de F323.320.06Regresin18799.11531587398799.11531587390.41031262930.5281417839358.440.06Residuos23493232.81278148621444.9049035429366.250.06Total24502031.92809736366.160.06390.670.06CoeficientesError tpicoEstadstico tProbabilidadInferior 95%Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%Superior 95,0%412.190.06Intercepcin152.2233916433358.13107271030.42504938340.6747509549-588.6271774463893.0739607329-588.6271774463893.0739607329433.770.05Variable X 14274.50583975286673.11289767810.64055649970.5281417839-9529.879941214418078.8916207201-9529.879941214418078.8916207201474.970.05521.290.05540.940.05585.450.06630.450.05623.470.05658.240.05

COSTOVS.MCost(y) M182.370.66Resumen183.160.61186.530.64Estadsticas de la regresin221.710.66Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple0.6668384091255.950.65Coeficiente de determinacin R^20.4446734639264.700.64R^2 ajustado0.4205288319291.160.64Error tpico110.0971214814274.460.62Observaciones25308.910.64328.290.64ANLISIS DE VARIANZA338.630.63Grados de libertadSuma de cuadradosPromedio de los cuadradosFValor crtico de F323.320.62Regresin1223240.276452171223240.27645217118.41707356770.0002722773358.440.62Residuos23278791.65164518912121.3761584865366.250.62Total24502031.92809736366.160.62390.670.62CoeficientesError tpicoEstadstico tProbabilidadInferior 95%Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%Superior 95,0%412.190.62Intercepcin4591.6074809071981.42792435764.67849687880.0001037282561.36913610686621.84582570732561.36913610686621.8458257073433.770.62Variable X 1-6713.15186641361564.2860074311-4.29151180440.0002722773-9949.124020558-3477.1797122693-9949.124020558-3477.1797122693474.970.62521.290.62540.940.62585.450.61630.450.62623.470.61658.240.62

COSTOVS.PKCost(y) Pk182.371.00Resumen183.161.00186.530.74Estadsticas de la regresin221.710.92Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple0.8236182789255.951.05Coeficiente de determinacin R^20.6783470694264.701.00R^2 ajustado0.6643621593291.161.01Error tpico83.790639965274.461.09Observaciones25308.911.10328.291.00ANLISIS DE VARIANZA338.631.06Grados de libertadSuma de cuadradosPromedio de los cuadradosFValor crtico de F323.321.16Regresin1340551.887145243340551.88714524348.50564415370.0000004243358.441.31Residuos23161480.0409521187020.8713457442366.251.25Total24502031.92809736366.161.26390.671.27CoeficientesError tpicoEstadstico tProbabilidadInferior 95%Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%Superior 95,0%412.191.32Intercepcin-345.8270557446105.6770460893-3.27248980310.0033443101-564.4366813837-127.2174301054-564.4366813837-127.2174301054433.771.33Variable X 1613.957467473788.1540252816.96459935340.0000004243431.596972187796.3179627604431.596972187796.3179627604474.971.41521.291.45540.941.39585.451.50630.451.45623.471.32658.241.20

COSTOVS.PL Cost(y) Pl182.371.00Resumen183.161.15186.531.16Estadsticas de la regresin221.711.24Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple0.98973858255.951.34Coeficiente de determinacin R^20.9795824568264.701.38R^2 ajustado0.9786947376291.161.43Error tpico21.1107417213274.461.45Observaciones25308.911.51328.291.58ANLISIS DE VARIANZA338.631.65Grados de libertadSuma de cuadradosPromedio de los cuadradosFValor crtico de F323.321.67Regresin1491781.669528774491781.6695287741103.48225105520358.441.73Residuos2310250.2585685862445.6634160255366.251.78Total24502031.92809736366.161.82390.671.89CoeficientesError tpicoEstadstico tProbabilidadInferior 95%Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%Superior 95,0%412.191.93Intercepcin-158.699566675916.7823781336-9.45632170920.0000000022-193.4165609228-123.9825724289-193.4165609228-123.9825724289433.772.01Variable X 1304.52559969379.167293396533.21870333190285.5616084422323.4895909452285.5616084422323.4895909452474.972.06521.292.13540.942.21585.452.34630.452.46623.472.61658.242.76

COSTOVS.PECost(y) Pe182.371.00Resumen183.161.30186.531.20Estadsticas de la regresin221.711.12Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple0.8184356497255.951.25Coeficiente de determinacin R^20.6698369128264.701.28R^2 ajustado0.6554819959291.161.28Error tpico84.8918522425274.461.30Observaciones25308.911.34328.291.37ANLISIS DE VARIANZA338.631.38Grados de libertadSuma de cuadradosPromedio de los cuadradosFValor crtico de F323.321.39Regresin1336279.516822679336279.51682267946.66254220640.0000005762358.441.37Residuos23165752.4112746817206.62657716366.251.38Total24502031.92809736366.161.38390.671.38CoeficientesError tpicoEstadstico tProbabilidadInferior 95%Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%Superior 95,0%412.191.35Intercepcin-929.6382784834192.5953428684-4.8268990550.0000716902-1328.0521002394-531.2244567275-1328.0521002394-531.2244567275433.771.39Variable X 1973.8237533116142.55950071996.83099862440.0000005762678.91695720981268.7305494134678.91695720981268.7305494134474.971.39521.291.40540.941.39585.451.43630.451.46623.471.46658.241.65

COSTOVS.PMCost(y) Pm182.371.00Resumen183.161.06186.531.07Estadsticas de la regresin221.711.12Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple0.9557923947255.951.22Coeficiente de determinacin R^20.9135391018264.701.20R^2 ajustado0.9097799323291.161.19Error tpico43.4421811892274.461.21Observaciones25308.911.24328.291.29ANLISIS DE VARIANZA338.631.31Grados de libertadSuma de cuadradosPromedio de los cuadradosFValor crtico de F323.321.33Regresin1458625.796648475458625.796648475243.01620464230358.441.31Residuos2343406.13144888491887.2231064733366.251.34Total24502031.92809736366.161.34390.671.35CoeficientesError tpicoEstadstico tProbabilidadInferior 95%Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%Superior 95,0%412.191.33Intercepcin-842.479313637678.954031288-10.67050408820.0000000002-1005.8081713348-679.1504559404-1005.8081713348-679.1504559404433.771.35Variable X 1940.158383851460.309177595715.58897702360815.399344641064.9174230628815.399344641064.9174230628474.971.38521.291.42540.941.42585.451.43630.451.53623.471.55658.241.55

Hoja19YearCost(y) Pl KLEMPkPePm1947182.371.000.050.250.040.661.001.001.001948183.161.150.060.280.050.611.001.301.061949186.531.160.050.260.050.640.741.201.071950221.711.240.050.250.050.660.921.121.121951255.951.340.050.250.040.651.051.251.221952264.701.380.050.270.040.641.001.281.201953291.161.430.050.270.040.641.011.281.191954274.461.450.060.270.050.621.091.301.211955308.911.510.050.260.050.641.101.341.241956328.291.580.050.270.050.641.001.371.291957338.631.650.050.270.050.631.061.381.311958323.321.670.060.270.050.621.161.391.331959358.441.730.060.270.050.621.311.371.311960366.251.780.060.280.050.621.251.381.341961366.161.820.060.280.050.621.261.381.341962390.671.890.060.280.050.621.271.381.351963412.191.930.060.280.040.621.321.351.331964433.772.010.050.280.040.621.331.391.351965474.972.060.050.280.040.621.411.391.381966521.292.130.050.280.040.621.451.401.421967540.942.210.050.290.040.621.391.391.421968585.452.340.060.290.040.611.501.431.431969630.452.460.050.290.040.621.451.461.531970623.472.610.050.300.040.611.321.461.551971658.242.760.050.290.040.621.201.651.55

ResumenCOSTOVS.PL*K



CoeficientesError tpicoEstadstico tProbabilidadInferior 95%Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%Superior 95,0%Intercepcin-102.000590812351.8255159655-1.96815388930.0617799248-209.48013260355.4789509789-209.48013260355.4789509789Variable X 1306.31548666589.232181636833.1791009660287.1691138112325.4618595205287.1691138112325.4618595205Variable X 2-1119.3219657689968.7977283539-1.15537220310.260332702-3128.4854828487889.8415513109-3128.4854828487889.8415513109

ResumenCOSTOVS.PL*L



CoeficientesError tpicoEstadstico tProbabilidadInferior 95%Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%Superior 95,0%Intercepcin59.0588557977165.38332462440.35710284540.7244174753-283.9251670212402.0428786166-283.9251670212402.0428786166Variable X 1327.372721667819.479971207416.80560603410286.9737340172367.7717093183286.9737340172367.7717093183Variable X 2-940.8967499649711.0211837061-1.32330340010.1993233852-2415.4644335622533.6709336323-2415.4644335622533.6709336323

ResumenCOSTO PL*E



CoeficientesError tpicoEstadstico tProbabilidadInferior 95%Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%Superior 95,0%Intercepcin187.116379488652.53801385273.56154269580.001745893378.1592075184296.073551458978.1592075184296.0735514589Variable X 1278.82107202296.603594326442.2226227480265.126055598292.5160884477265.126055598292.5160884477Variable X 2-6699.4655497976999.8030918208-6.70078498920.0000009791-8772.9302551318-4626.0008444634-8772.9302551318-4626.0008444634

ResumenCOSTO PL*M



CoeficientesError tpicoEstadstico tProbabilidadInferior 95%Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%Superior 95,0%Intercepcin-817.3861992518259.9264187963-3.14468303390.0047059742-1356.4405988302-278.3317996733-1356.4405988302-278.3317996733Variable X 1326.320133859711.902669785627.41570922630301.6355075551351.0047601642301.6355075551351.0047601642Variable X 2988.5726604404389.44572665762.53840931550.0187239902180.9116565151796.2336643659180.9116565151796.2336643659

ResumenCOSTO PL*PK



CoeficientesError tpicoEstadstico tProbabilidadInferior 95%Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%Superior 95,0%Intercepcin-187.291639694527.570289543-6.7932416670.0000007959-244.4689206521-130.1143587368-244.4689206521-130.1143587368Variable X 1288.37424237315.391148939518.73636877320256.4549531034320.2935316427256.4549531034320.2935316427Variable X 248.334406173637.28894039561.29621291620.2083355761-28.9981230436125.6669353908-28.9981230436125.6669353908

ResumenCOSTO PL*Pe



CoeficientesError tpicoEstadstico tProbabilidadInferior 95%Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%Superior 95,0%Intercepcin11.978981943659.99590814720.19966331560.8435778867-112.4449161474136.4028800345-112.4449161474136.4028800345Variable X 1344.75576909215.855235508721.74397024270311.8740231852377.6375149988311.8740231852377.6375149988Variable X 2-179.798052114661.3147857216-2.93237675050.0077096576-306.9571348869-52.6389693423-306.9571348869-52.6389693423

ResumenCOSTO PL*Pm



CoeficientesError tpicoEstadstico tProbabilidadInferior 95%Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%Superior 95,0%Intercepcin-79.477605575996.6913082943-0.82197259480.419912096-280.0031057478121.0478945961-280.0031057478121.0478945961Variable X 1336.095869174639.04548826328.6078029530.0000000171255.1204826423417.0712557068255.1204826423417.0712557068Variable X 2-103.8715915124.8259853781-0.83213115590.4142767569-362.7448407502155.0016577501-362.7448407502155.0016577501

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18 de marzo