DESICIO0NES BAJO CERTIDUMBRE.1. Obtencin de la Matriz Tecnolgica. A=[aij]= bij/xj333500/1000000+45600/1600000+75300/1250000+55500/1280000+65100/2000000

422800/1000000+175200/1600000+155900/1250000+165800/1280000+245300/2000000A=357700/1000000+111100/1600000+111400/1250000112100/1280000+112700/2000000

248300/1000000+23400/1600000+122600/1250000+102400/1280000+113300/200000236300/1000000+282000/1600000+361200/1250000+153000/1280000+472500/2000000

0.334 (1)0.0285

0.060240.043359375

0.032550.422280.1095 (1)0.124720.12953125

0.12265

A=0.3577

0.06943750.08912 (1)0.087578125

0.056350.2483

0.0146250.098080.08 (1)

0.05665

0.2363

0.176250.288960.11953125

0.23625 (1)

2. Matriz de Leontieff (I-A) despejar bij de la anterior para obtener aij . xj = bij

0.666

-0.0285

-0.06024-0.043359375

-0.03255

-0.4228

0.8905

-0.12472 -0.12953125

-0.12265

(I-A)=-0.3577

-0.0694375 0.91088-0.087578125

-0.056350.2483

-0.014625-0.09808 0.92

-0.05665

-0.2363

-0.17625-0.28896-0.11953125

0.76375

3. Inversa de la Matriz de Leontieff (I-A)-1

1.7608908140.11339618350.18310781950.13152587080.11652255860.2755194250.3061285010.39871831290.32321816660.3175029840.95221560850.19801698961.2690936720.21723021430.1821288666

0.84366556450.26899385620.28397578251.2163521110.1903264066

0.3314637250.45351597730.67326188950.3878359361.517344801Comprobacin (I-A)-1 * H = XX1=1.760890814 (425,000)+0.1133961835 (435,000)+0.1831078195 (445,000)+0.1315258708 (480,000)+0.1165225586 (495,000)

X1= 1, 000,000X2= 0.275519425 (425,000)+0.306128501 (435,000)+0.3987183129 (445,000)+0.3232181666 (480,000)+0.317502984 (495,000)X2=1, 000, 000

X3=0.9522156085 (425,000)+0.1980169896 (435,000)+1.269093672 (445,000)+0.217230214 (480,000)+0.1821288666 (495,000)X3= 1, 250, 000X4= 0.8436655645 (425,000)+0.2689938562 (435,000)+0.2839757825 (445,000)+1.216352111 (480,000)+0.1903264066 (495,000)X4= 1, 280, 000

X5= 0.331463725 (425,000)+0.4535159773 (435,000)+0.673261889 (445,000)+ 0.387835936 (480,000)+1.517344801 (495,000)X5= 2,000, 0004. Encontrar la nueva demanda Total (X).

X= (I-A)-1 * H

X1=1.760890814 (510,000)+0.1133961835 (522,000)+0.1831078195 (534,000)+0.1315258708 (576,000)+0.1165225586 (594,000)

X1= 1, 200, 000.00X2= 0.275519425 (510,000)+0.306128501 (522,000)+0.3987183129 (534,000)+0.3232181666 (576,000)+0.317502984 (594,000)

X2= 1,920, 000X3=0.9522156085 (510,000)+0.1980169896 (522,000)+1.269093672 (534,000)+0.217230214 (576,000)+0.1821288666 (594,000)X3= 1, 500, 000X4= 0.8436655645 (510,000)+0.2689938562 (522,000)+0.2839757825 (534,000)+1.216352111 (576,000)+0.1903264066 (594,000)X4= 1, 536,000X5= 0.331463725 (510,000)+0.4535159773 (522,000)+0.673261889 (534,000)+ 0.387835936 (576,000)+1.517344801 (594,000)X5= 2,400, 000

Nueva Demanda Total.

X1= 1, 200, 000.00

X2= 1,920, 000

X3= 1, 500, 000

X4= 1, 536,000

X5= 2,400, 0005. Matriz de Insumos B (bij=aij*xj)

b11=667/2000*1200000=400200

b12= 57/21000+1920000=54720b21=1057/2500*1200000=507360

b22= 219/2800+1920000=210240b31=3577/10000*1200000=429240

b32=1111/16000*1920000=133320

b41=2483/10000*1200000=297960

b42=1067/8000*1920000=256080

b51=2363/10000*1200000=283560

b52=141/860*1920000=338400b13=753/12500*1500000=90360

b14=111/2560*1536000=66600b23=1559/12500*1500000=187080

b24=829/6400*1536000=198960b33=557/6250*1500000=133680

b34=1121/12800*1536000=122880b43=613/6250*1500000=147120

b44=2/25*1536000=122880b53=903/3125*1500000=433440

b54=153/1280*1536000=183600

b15=651/20000*2400000=78120

b25=2453/20000*2400000=294360b35=1127/20000*2400000=135240

b45=1133/20000*2400000=135960

b55=189/800*2400000=567000

6. Nueva matriz 2010

Sector Sector UsuarioDemandaDemandaDemanda

ProductivoS1S2S3S4S5IntermediaFinalTotal

S1400,20054,72090,36066,60078,120690,000510,0001,200,000

S2507,360210,420187,080198,960294,3601,398,000522,0001,920,000

S3429,240133,320133,680134,520135,240966,000534,0001,500,000

S4297,960256,080147,120122,880135,960960,000576,0001,536,000

S5283,560338,400433,440183,600567,0001,806,000594,0002,400,000

UNIVERSIDAD DE EL SALVADOR

FACULTAD MULTIDISCIPLINARIA DE OCCIDENTE

DEPARTAMENTO DE CIENCIAS ECONOMICA

MATEMATICA III

CATEDRATICO:

LICDO. JOSE LUIS MENDOZA

TEMA:EVALUACION PARTE B: TOMA DE DESICIONES EN SITUACIONES DE CERTIDUMBRE, INCERTIDUMBRE Y RIESGO. N DE EQUIPO:

23INTEGRADO POR:

FIGUEROA ORELLANA, SANDRA YANIRA

85

GARCIA MENDOZA, ALBA ESTELA

87

HERNANDEZ HERNANDEZ, ERIC RICARDO

89

LUCERO AQUINO, MARIA CRISTINA

96

MARTINEZ SANTAMARA, KATYA JEANNETHE

99

VIERNES, 15 DE ABRIL DE 2011

CRITERIO DEL VALOR ESPERADOCAJAS VENDIDAS POR SEMANASEMANAS CON CADA VENTA

3804

3905

4006

4109

42011

43013

44012

45010

4608

4702

DATOS:Costo: 500

Precio: 600

Valor Recuperable: 505

1. METODO DE LA MAXIMA UTILIDAD ESPERADA.

UM= P C

PM= C-VR

UM= 600 500

PM= 500- 505

UM= 100

PM= -5 (perdida negativa, es Ganancia)CAJAS VENDIDAS POR SEMANASEMANAS

CON CADA VENTAPROBABILIDAD DE

CADA FRECUENCIAS

38040.05

39050.0625

40060.075

41090.1125

420110.1375

430130.1625

440120.15

450100.125

46080.1

47020.0025

TOTAL:801

1.331463725