L.T. CACHIMAYO PISAC

4to trabajo 2PC-EVALUACIN DE PROYECTOS DE INGENIERA ELCTRICAEvaluacin Econmica del ProyectoPABLO VALDIVIA JUAN JORGE20020061JCUADRO N 2 DEMANDA AOENERGIAPOTENCIAGWhKW19980019994.0071,62620004.5071,82120014.7261,90320024.9561,98920038.4372,94520048.6443,01820058.8593,09320069.0833,17020079.3163,251200810.1603,593200910.4343,687201010.7183,785201111.0153,886201211.3253,991201311.6484,100201411.9844,213201512.3354,331201612.7014,453

CUADRO N 1COSTO DE CONSTRUCCIN (DLARES)SOLESDOLARESLINEA DE TRANSMISION2,687,537.43959,834.80S.E. CORA CORA1,297,035.12463,226.83AMPLIACION S.E. PUQUIO284,566.82101,631.01 SISTEMA DE COMUNICACIONES126,646.1245,230.76GASTOS GENERALES235,488.51UTILIDAD156,992.34TOTAL COSTO SIN IMPUESTOS5,494,731.861,962,404.24 IGV989,051.74353,232.76TOTAL COSTO CONSTRUCCION6,483,783.602,315,637.00

TIPO DE CAMBIO 2.80S/. POR USD1.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.000000000

1.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.010.011.012.0CUADRO N 3PRECIOS POTENCIA Y ENERGIA TRANSFERIDA 298.3358.2 TARIFA PROMEDIO PARA ENERGIA COMPRADA 0.034US$/KWhPERDIDAS TECNICAS2.85%PERDIDAS NO TECNICAS0.50%TARIFA PROMEDIO PARA ENERGIA VENDIDA 0.084US$/KWh1.085843044

FUENTE : EMPRESA REGIONAL DE DISTRIBUCION ELECTRO SUR MEDIOTIPO DE CAMBIO 2.80 S/. POR USD

CUADRO N 4INGRESOS DEL PROYECTO EN DOLARES

COMPRA Y VENTA DE ENERGIA I N G R E S O S AOECPTPNTEVECEVINGRESOGWhGWhGWhGWh$$TOTAL

1,9980.000.000.000.000001,9994.140.110.024.01140,802336,588195,7862,0004.660.130.024.51158,371378,588220,2172,0014.880.130.024.73166,067396,984230,9172,0025.120.140.024.96174,149416,304242,1552,0038.720.240.048.44296,468708,708412,2402,0048.930.250.048.64303,742726,096422,3542,0059.160.250.048.86311,296744,156432,8602,0069.390.260.059.08319,168762,972443,8042,0079.630.270.059.32327,355782,544455,189 2,00810.500.290.0510.16357,012853,440496,4282,00910.780.300.0510.43366,640876,456509,8162,01011.080.310.0510.72376,620900,312523,6922,01111.380.310.0611.02387,056925,260538,2042,01211.700.320.0611.33397,949951,300553,3512,01312.040.330.0611.65409,299978,432569,1332,01412.390.340.0611.98421,1061,006,656585,5502,01512.750.350.0612.34433,4401,036,140602,7002,01613.130.360.0612.70446,3001,066,884620,584

CUADRO N 5EVALUACION ECONOMICA(DOLARES)AOINGRESOSINVERSIONO&MTOTALFLUJOCOSTOSECONOMICO199801,962,4041,962,404(1,962,404)1999195,78639,24839,248156,5382000220,21739,24839,248180,9682001230,91739,24839,248191,6692002242,15539,24839,248202,9072003412,24039,24839,248372,9922004422,35439,24839,248383,1062005432,86039,24839,248393,6122006443,80439,24839,248404,5562007455,18939,24839,248415,9412008496,42839,24839,248457,1802009509,81639,24839,248470,5682010523,69239,24839,248484,4442011538,20439,24839,248498,9562012553,35139,24839,248514,1032013569,13339,24839,248529,8852014585,55039,24839,248546,3022015602,70039,24839,248563,4522016620,584(784,962)39,248(745,714)1,366,297VAN6,171,072CUADRO N 6ANALISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD TASA DE DESCUENTO(DOLARES)TDVANEB/C e8.00%1,459,0091.749.00%1,168,0851.6010.00%914,0371.4711.00%691,6751.3612.00%496,6111.2613.00%325,1271.1714.00%174,0631.0915.00%40,7281.0216.00%(77,179)0.96

TIR15.33%

CUADRO N 7ANALISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD(DOLARES)

VARIACION DEL VAN Y EL B/C VS TARIFAS TARIFASVANB/C eTIR496610.7704390751.25931905867148370.153317913805790740.00%496,6111.2615.33%5.00%496,6111.2615.33%10.00%496,6111.2615.33%15.00%496,6111.2615.33%20.00%496,6111.2615.33%25.00%496,6111.2615.33%30.00%496,6111.2615.33%35.00%496,6111.2615.33%40.00%496,6111.2615.33%45.00%496,6111.2615.33%50.00%496,6111.2615.33%55.00%496,6111.2615.33%60.00%496,6111.2615.33%

CUADRO N 8ANALISIS DE SENSIBILIDADVARIACION DEL VAN Y EL B/C VS INVERSION(DOLARES)INVVARB/C eTIR496610.7704390751.25931905867148370.15331791380579074-10.00%688,1161.4017.01%-5.00%592,3641.3316.13%0.00%496,6111.2615.33%5.00%400,8581.2014.59%10.00%305,1051.1413.90%15.00%209,3521.1013.26%20.00%113,5991.0512.66%Datos no pedidos en el Proyecto (Slo se consideran los datos en -10% y 15%)

CUADRO N 9CALENDARIO DE INVERSIONESCALENDARIO DE INVERSIONES1998POR FUENTES DE FINANCIAMIENTO %TOTAL COSTO SIN IMPUESTOS1,962,404.24CAPITAL DE TRABAJO36,702.75TOTAL INVERSION1,999,106.99PRESTAMO699,687.4535.0%RECURSOS PROPIOS99,955.355.0%APORTE DE CAPITAL1,199,464.1960.0%TOTAL INVERSION1,999,106.99

CUADRO N 10

FLUJO DE COMPROMISOS DEL PRESTAMO

PRESTAMO (DOLARES)TIPO DE PRESTAMO:O.E.C.F.TASA DE INTERES :3%PERIODO DE GRACIA:1AOPERIODO DE REPAGO:10AOSPRESTAMO :699,687 DOLARESCUOTA :82,025 DOLARESLOS INTERESES DURANTE EL PERIODO DE GRACIA SE DESEMBOLSANAOPRESTAMOINTERESES COMISIONCOMISIONCUOTAINTERESESAMORTIZACIONSALDOFLUJOCONSTRUCCIONCOMPROMISOADMINISTRACIONPRESTAMO1,998699,68710,495000699,687689,1921,99982,02520,99161,034638,653(82,025)2,00082,02519,16062,865575,788(82,025)2,00182,02517,27464,751511,037(82,025)2,00282,02515,33166,694444,344(82,025)2,00382,02513,33068,694375,649(82,025)2,00482,02511,26970,755304,894(82,025)2,00582,0259,14772,878232,016(82,025)2,00682,0256,96075,064156,952(82,025)2,00782,0254,70977,31679,636(82,025)2,00882,0252,38979,6360(82,025) INTERES EFECTIVO=3.30%

DEPRECIACIONCOSTOAOSDEP

COSTO DIRECTO1,962,404.243065,413.47COSTO INDIRECTO0.00250.00GASTOS DE ADUANA0.00250.00INT DURANTE CONST Y COM10,495.3130349.84

TOTAL1,972,899.5565,763.32

IGV0.00

1,972,899.55

CUADRO N 11ESTADO DE PERDIDAS Y GANANCIASTASA IMPUESTO A LA RENTA 30.00% DOLARES AOINGRESOO&MDEPRECIACIONUTILIDADINTERESESUTILIMPUESTOUTILIDADNETO OPERATIVAa IMPRENTANETA 1,998000000001,999195,78639,24865,41391,12420,99170,13421,04049,0942,000220,21739,24865,413115,55519,16096,39528,91967,4772,001230,91739,24865,413126,25617,274108,98232,69576,2872,002242,15539,24865,413137,49415,331122,16236,64985,5142,003412,24039,24865,413307,57913,330294,24888,275205,9742,004422,35439,24865,413317,69311,269306,42391,927214,4962,005432,86039,24865,413328,1989,147319,05195,715223,3362,006443,80439,24865,413339,1436,960332,18299,655232,5282,007455,18939,24865,413350,5284,709345,819103,746242,0732,008496,42839,24865,413391,7662,389389,377116,813272,5642,009509,81639,24865,413405,1540405,154121,546283,6082,010523,69239,24865,413419,0310419,031125,709293,3212,011538,20439,24865,413433,5420433,542130,063303,4802,012553,35139,24865,413448,6890448,689134,607314,0822,013569,13339,24865,413464,4710464,471139,341325,1302,014585,55039,24865,413480,8890480,889144,267336,6222,015602,70039,24865,413498,0390498,039149,412348,6272,016620,58439,24865,413515,9220515,922154,777361,145

CUADRO N 12 FLUJO FINANCIERO(DOLARES)0 I N G R E S O S E G R E S O SFLUJOAOINGRESOPRESTAMOAPORTE CAPITALTOTALINV COSTOSAMORT +IDC +IMPTOTALFINANCIERO NETO O&MINTERESCOMISRENTA 1,9980699,6871,199,4641,899,1521,999,1070010,49502,009,602(110,451) 1,999195,78600195,786039,24882,025021,040142,31353,4732,000220,21700220,217039,24882,025028,919150,19170,0252,001230,91700230,917039,24882,025032,695153,96776,9502,002242,15500242,155039,24882,025036,649157,92284,2342,003412,24000412,240039,24882,025088,275209,547202,6932,004422,35400422,354039,24882,025091,927213,200209,1552,005432,86000432,860039,24882,025095,715216,988215,8712,006443,80400443,804039,24882,025099,655220,928222,8772,007455,18900455,189039,24882,0250103,746225,018230,1712,008496,42800496,428039,24882,0250116,813238,086258,3422,009509,81600509,816039,24800121,546160,794349,0212,010523,69200523,692039,24800125,709164,957358,7352,011538,20400538,204039,24800130,063169,311368,8932,012553,35100553,351039,24800134,607173,855379,4962,013569,13300569,133039,24800139,341178,589390,5432,014585,55000585,550039,24800144,267183,515402,0362,015602,70000602,700039,24800149,412188,660414,0412,016620,58400620,584(784,962)39,24800154,777(590,937)1,211,521VAN5,387,625

CUADRO N 13ANALISIS DE SENSIBILIDADVANF, B/C f vs TASA DE DESCUENTOMILES DE DOLARESTDVANFB/C f8.00%1,931,0821.599.00%1,720,9261.5510.00%1,537,7211.5011.00%1,377,5641.4712.00%1,237,1701.4313.00%1,113,7681.4014.00%1,005,0091.3715.00%908,9051.3416.00%823,7631.32TIRF73.58%

CUADRO N 14ANALISIS DE SENSIBILIDADVARIACION DEL VAN Y EL B/C VS TARIFASTARIFASVANB/CTIR 1237170.38840893661.43104452091604760.7357685267501175-20.00%1,237,1701.4373.58%-10.00%1,237,1701.4373.58%0.00%1,237,1701.4373.58%10.00%1,237,1701.4373.58%20.00%1,237,1701.4373.58%

CUADRO N 15ANALISIS DE SENSIBILIDADVARIACION DEL VAN Y EL B/C VS LA INVERSION%VANB/CTIRINV 1237170.38840893661.43104452091604760.7357685267501175-7.50%1,365,5571.50ERROR:#NUM!-5.00%1,322,7611.48463.72%-2.50%1,279,9661.45113.58%0.00%1,237,1701.4373.58%2.50%1,194,3751.4157.16%5.00%1,151,5801.3947.87%7.50%1,108,7841.3741.73%

CUADRO N 16ERROR:#REF!ANALISIS DE SENSIBILIDADVARIACION DEL VAN Y EL B/C VS LA TASA DE INTERES%VANB/CTIR 1237170.38840893661.43104452091604760.73576852675011753.001,237,1701.4373.58%4.001,219,9921.4270.56%5.001,202,4191.4167.68%6.001,184,4611.4164.94%7.001,166,1251.4062.33%8.001,147,4211.3959.83%9.001,128,3581.3857.45%