C O N F I D E N T I A L MADRID socialismo en españa

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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MADRID 000961

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/WE

NSC FOR FRIED AND VOLKER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/18/2014

TAGS: PRELPGOVSPPSOE

SUBJECT: WHO ARE THE SPANISH SOCIALISTS?

REF: A. MADRID 881

B. MADRID 919

C. MADRID 812

Classified By: Acting Deputy Chief of Mission Carol J. Urban,

reasons 1.4(B) and (D).

1. (C) Summary: The Socialist Workers Party of Spain

(PSOE), surprise victor in March 14 elections, is a

center-left party in the European social democrat tradition.

Since the end of the Franco regime and the beginning of

Spain's modern democracy in 1977, PSOE has generally

advocated comprehensive social programs and limited defense

spending, as well as a reduced domestic role for the armed

forces. In practical terms, members of Zapatero's inner

circle have been careful to say PSOE will make no significant

changes to the Aznar government's successful economic

policies. We expect static or reduced defense spending under

PSOE, increased social welfare programs, more "green"

environment policies, a greater focus on Spain's role in the

EU (including increased adherence to French and German

leadership), and distancing from the Spain's close

relationship with the United States that Aznar fostered. End

summary.

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Mainstream Socialists

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2. (SBU) Founded more than 120 years ago, the PSOE espouses

as its main goals liberty, equality, solidarity and social

justice. Communists broke with the Socialists after the 1917

Russian revolution and formed their own party (now the United

Left, or IU). PSOE renounced any connection with Marxism in

1979, reaffirming the democratic and federal nature of the

party. Since the end of the Franco regime and the beginning

of modern Spanish democracy in 1977, PSOE has advocated

comprehensive social programs, limited defense spending and a

reduced role for the military in Spanish life.

3. (SBU) The Socialists governed Spain with Felipe Gonzalez

as President from 1982-1996. Though the Socialists lost power

in 1996 amidst a swirl of corruption scandals, Gonzalez is

credited with having strengthened the foundations of Spanish

democracy and governmental institutions during his time as

head of government. Spain joined the European Community and,

in a national referendum, reaffirmed its membership in NATO

under Gonzalez, a position PSOE had originally opposed.Gonzalez called the latter a "triumph of the people of
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Spain." The Socialist government under Gonzalez also updated

Spain's agreement with the United States for American use of

Spanish military bases.

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Zapatero's PSOE

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4. (C) President-elect Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero took

over as PSOE's secretary general in 2000, narrowly edging out

party "baron" Jose Bono. In 2003 the party issued a

resolution outlining its political program designed "to

increase freedom and the decision-making power of ordinary

citizens over their own lives; to reduce crime; to allow

citizens to develop their talents and abilities to the

fullest; and to ensure individuals are not abandoned to their

own fate." Following is a summary of PSOE positions in major

issue areas:

-- Foreign Policy: See Ref A for a discussion of PSOE's

likely foreign policy goals. PSOE's general foreign policy

outlook was summarized well by Manuel Marin, the party's

international affairs spokesman in Congress: "Aznar wanted

to make Spain a great nation among the great nations, but

Spain lacks the means and capacity for that role. Spain

cannot be a determinative force in great international

conflicts. We do not have the political or economic weight

for that, nor the internal security and defense capabilities

that would be necessary." In general, we expect PSOE to

conduct more of its foreign policy via Brussels and to hew

closer to Franco-German positions. Zapatero's comments have

also indicated he plans to distance Spain from the close

relations the U.S. enjoyed under the Aznar government.

-- Economy: The outlines of PSOE's economic platform are in

Ref C. Close associates of Zapatero have been careful to say

that the incoming PSOE government will not make significant

changes to the PP's successful economic policies. Some

business leaders have voiced the same expectations with us.

PSOE will work to decrease unemployment (currently over 11

percent and one of the highest in the EU) and convert jobs on

temporary contracts (currently one-third of new jobs created)

into permanent positions which carry full benefits.

President-elect Zapatero has stated his government will focus

significant attention on calming the rapid rise in housing

prices and has already announced the creation of a Ministry

of Housing. The PSOE also advocates more investment in R&D

and training for workers. They have promised to simplify the

tax system, resulting in decreased taxes for many Spaniards,

while maintaining a balanced budget and fiscal discipline.

-- Social Programs and Issues: PSOE has pledged to: include

more health services in the nation's health plan and reduce

the maximum wait time for operations; increase pensions and

improve health care for the aged; raise the minimum wage;

lengthen legally mandated paternity leave; change the civil

code to allow gay marriages; mandate gender-based affirmative

action for government jobs; and devote more attention to the

problem of domestic violence.

-- Education: Zapatero has said PSOE will lengthen the
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school day, increase bilingual education (one-third of

classes will be taught in English), improve computer access,

and increase grants for students who go on to higher

education.

-- Environment: We can anticipate more "green" environment

policies. PSOE officials have made clear they plan to scrapthe PP's hugely controversial north-south water transfer

plan, replacing it with a new water policy to be based on

better water management, increased reliance on underground

water supplies and greater investment in desalination. PSOE

has pledged Spain's complete compliance with the Kyoto

Protocol, despite rumblings from Spanish industry that

emissions cuts agreed under the EU umbrella will severely and

negatively affect competitiveness. PSOE's campaign platform

called for a formal moratorium on nuclear power within five

years, but recent pronouncements have indicated that the

party might simply deny renewal of current licenses.

5. (C) Zapatero has not explained how he plans to pay for

increased social programs while cutting taxes at the same

time, except to suggest he may trim defense spending to pay

part of the bill. His inner circle have suggested some

revenues may come through greater government efficiencies,

without specifying programs or jobs that would be eliminated.

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Comment

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6. (C) PSOE is a mainstream European socialist party.

Although Zapatero has led PSOE for four years, he has never

held a government position, and since PSOE has been out of

power for eight years, neither have many of those around him

(see Ref B for a discussion those surrounding Zapatero).

PSOE and Zapatero will have a steep learning curve to climb

upon taking power. Given the need to appeal to his large

anti-war constituency, Zapatero will distance Spanish foreign

policy from Aznar's close relations with the U.S.

Nonetheless, we are hopeful that once PSOE grasps that it has

won and Zapatero is in office, Zapatero will come to realize

that while he may have differences with the U.S., it is still

in Spain's interest to cooperate with us on a number of

issues.

ARGYROS
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