¿Como turco en la neblina?

CEMA

Diana Mondino

14 de Agosto de 2018

Todos los datos son de fuentes secundarias.

Temas

Datos: Buenas y malas noticias

Déficits: Fiscal, Comercial, Infraestructura, Educación, etc.

Inflación, dólar, inversiones

El mundoEEUU: elefante en un bazar• Guerra comercial con China, México, Canadá, UE, Turquía…• Embajada en Jerusalén• Política Inmigratoria• Suba de Tasas de interés

Aumento de precio del petróleoPaíses emergentes con dificultadesDesconcierto con Cryptomonedas

El mundoEEUU: elefante en un bazar• Guerra comercial con China, México, Canadá, UE, India….• Embajada en Jerusalén• Política Inmigratoria• Tasas de interés

Aumento de precio del petróleoPaíses emergentes con dificultadesDesconcierto con Cryptomonedas

Turquia y Emergentes

Bloomberg. Ranking de vulnerabilidad

Argentina 2018

•No es como el Tequila•No es como Argentina 2001•No es como Rusia (ni 1998 ni 2008)•No es como Grecia 2010•No es como Brasil con Lava Jato•No es como Turquía

• ¿Qué somos?

Temas

Exógenos: Inundación 2016/7 y Sequía 2017/8

Endógenos: Política Fiscal y Monetaria inconsistentes

Shocks externos Huracán de frente

Argentina hasta MAYO 2018

Múltiples buenas noticias• Grandes avances en infraestructura ppp• Cuentas al día• Mejora balanza energética• Reforma fiscal• (mini) Reforma previsional• (casi todas) Provincias con superávit fiscal

• Avances en los grandes problemas: déficit energético, ANSES, Infraestructura y Educación

Peso / Dólar en 2018

Acuerdo con FMI

• Reducción de gasto en $ 200.000 ( aprox 8% del Gasto público) en 2 años

Gastos (5/2018 - últimos 12 meses) $ Millones

Jubilaciones y pensiones 1.022.880Asignación Universal por hijo 155.132Subsidio Energía, transporte y otros 218.890Salarios 356.528Gastos funcionamiento 114.191Transferencia a Provincias 81.184Otros 152.576Déficit empresas públicas 9.635Gasto de Capital 189.200

• TOTAL 2.554.378

• INTERESES 261.620

Reducción de gastos

• Efectos de devaluación: licuan ALGUNOS gastos en dólares pero aumenta intereses

• Ajustes contínuos en “trampitas” y corruptelas

• Ajustes contínuos en Productividad

Inflación

• Menor crecimiento de base monetaria

• Aumento en (algunos) salarios: 25%

• Aumento en tarifas: ???

• Aumento por trasladar aumento del dólar/pass-through: ???

• Brusca caída en precio de bonos

Exportaciones de Economías Regionales Millones U$S – Enero Mayo 2018

Precio del Petróleo

Precio de la Soja

Precio del Trigo

Inversiones: No olvidar reforma tributaria

Múltiples Cambios en:

• Ganancias, Dividendos, Ingresos Brutos

• Activos financieros: acciones, bonos,

• Compraventa propiedades

• Atención a Percepciones y Retenciones

La gran pregunta: Pesos vs dólares.

Argentina 2018

•No es como el Tequila•No es como Argentina 2001•No es como Rusia (ni 1998 ni 2008)•No es como Grecia 2010•No es como Brasil con Lava Jato•No es como Turquía

• ¿Qué somos?

Argentina 2018

•No es como el Tequila•No es como Argentina 2001•No es como Rusia (ni 1998 ni 2008)•No es como Grecia 2010•No es como Brasil con Lava Jato•No es como Turquía

• ¿Qué somos?

¿Gran Oportunidad?

Laboratorios

Pesca

CEDIN

INCAA

Datos recientes de LavaJato

•2476 procedimientos judiciales

•227 llamadas a indagatoria por la fuerza pública

•115 prisiones preventivas

•121 prisiones temporarias

•6 prisiones "in fraganti"

Datos recientes de LavaJato

• 513 pedidos de cooperación internacional con 80 países

• 175 acuerdos de cooperación premiada (el famoso arrepentido)

• 11 acuerdos de "leniencia" de personas jurídicas con el Estado (en Brasil existe la ley de extinción de dominio)

• 78 acusaciones penales contra 328 personas (sin repetir el nombre)

Datos recientes de LavaJato

•204 condenas•134 condenados•1983 años, 4 meses y 20 día si sumamos las penas•USD 11.000 millones de pedido de devolución de lo

robado (incluyendo multas)•USD 3.200 millones recuperados merced, entre otras

cosas, a la ley de leniencia (extinción de dominio)• Ex -presidente Lula da Silva preso.

En los últimos 5 años el 10% de los líderes mundiales han sido depuestos de sus cargos.• June 2018 SPAIN

• Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy was ousted in a no-confidence vote following allegations of slush fund-related corruption.

• April 2018 ARMENIA

• The appointment of then-President Serzh Sargsyan as prime minister, allowing him to evade constitutional term limits and remain in power, led to large-scale protests against the regime’s corruption and autocratic tendencies. The demonstrations forced his resignation and the end of the Republican Party’s decades-long rule.

• March 2018 MAURITIUS

• Ameenah Gurib-Fakim resigned as Mauritius’s (largely ceremonial) president over allegations she misused NGO funds provided by an Angolan businessman with investments in the country.

• March 2018 PERU

• President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski resigned in the face of Odebrecht-related allegations of influence-peddling and conflicts of interest, as well as allegedly seeking to bribe lawmakers to prevent his impeachment.

En los últimos 5 años el 10% de los líderes mundiales han sido depuestos de sus cargos.• March 2018 SLOVAKIA

• Prime Minister Robert Fico resigned after the murder of a reporter investigating tax fraud and corruption sparked public outrage.

• February 2018 SOUTH AFRICA

• President Jacob Zuma resigned under pressure from the public and his own party after numerous corruption accusations tarnished his administration’s image.

• July 2017 PAKISTAN

• Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was declared unfit for office by the Supreme Court after the Panama Papers leak revealed that his family held undeclared overseas investments and financial interests. In a subsequent ruling, the Supreme Court held that Sharif was barred for life from holding public office.

• March 2017 LESOTHO

• Prime Minister Pakalitha Mosisili lost a no-confidence vote in the National Assembly following widespread discontent with the government’s economic mismanagement and continued corruption. Mosisili was defeated in subsequent elections.

En los últimos 5 años el 10% de los líderes mundiales han sido depuestos de sus cargos.• March 2017 SOUTH KOREA

• Following mass protests, President Park Geun-hye was impeached and removed from office because of accusations of influence-peddling and other corruption. In 2018, Park was sentencedto 24 years in prison.

• August 2016 BRAZIL

• President Dilma Rousseff was impeached and removed from office on charges of manipulating the budget in a highly polarized political atmosphere following serious allegations of systemic corruption.

• June 2016 CROATIA

• Prime Minister Tihomir Oreskovic lost a no-confidence vote in Parliament following a conflict of interest scandal concerning the deputy prime minister and a Hungarian oil company.

• April 2016 ICELAND

• Prime Minister Sigmundur David Gunnlaugsson resigned after the Panama Papers revelations showed overseas assets he had seemingly tried to hide.

En los últimos 5 años el 10% de los líderes mundiales han sido depuestos de sus cargos.• April 2016 KYRGYZSTAN

• Prime Minister Temir Sariyev resigned after a parliamentary commission accused his administration of corruption related to bidding for government contracts.

• April 2016 UKRAINE

• Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk resigned because of public anger over entrenched corruption and unresolved economic problems.

• November 2015 ROMANIA

• Prime Minister Victor Ponta resigned following a fatal nightclub fire in a broader context of sustained anti-corruption protests against the government.

• November 2015 VANUATU

• President Baldwin Lonsdale dissolved Parliament following the conviction of 14 members for bribery, including two former prime ministers. While Lonsdale remained in office, Prime Minister Sato Kilman was replaced in the following elections.

En los últimos 5 años el 10% de los líderes mundiales han sido depuestos de sus cargos.• October 2015 MOLDOVA

• Prime Minister Valeriu Strelet was ousted in a no-confidence vote after continued popular outrage at corruption following the arrest of former Prime Minister Vlad Filat for taking bribes, as well as a massive 2014 bank fraud case.

• September 2015 EGYPT

• Prime Minister Ibrahim Mehleb resigned because of a corruption probe targeting the agriculture minister, as well as general poor performance in other areas of governance.

• September 2015 GUATEMALA

• President Otto Pérez Molina resigned hours after being stripped of his immunity by Congress following revelations of his involvement in a customs-related corruption scheme. Pérez Molina was subsequentlyarrested.

• May 2014 THAILAND

• Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra faced mass protests prompted in part by a proposed amnesty law that would have dismissed her brother’s (former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra) 2008 conviction for corruption. Yingluck was also investigated for corruption and mismanagement related to a public rice purchasing scheme. Yingluck was removed from office by the Constitutional Court in May 2014 for abuse of power in an unrelated matter, while the military staged a coup shortly afterwards.

En los últimos 5 años el 10% de los líderes mundiales han sido depuestos de sus cargos.• February 2014 UKRAINE

• President Viktor Yanukovych fled the country and was subsequently removed from office by parliament following large-scale protests triggered by Yanukovych’s refusal to sign an association agreement with the European Union, as well as general anger at the government’s corruption and mismanagement.

• June 2013 CZECH REPUBLIC

• Prime Minister Petr Necas resigned after graft and spying allegations surfaced against his closest aide, with whom he also had a romantic relationship.