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CONSUMO PRIVADO DEL PAIS

ENTRE 2003 AL 2013

AOS MILLONES DE DOLARES2003 27.4622004 29.2292005 30.5232006 31.8522007 33.2012008 34.9952009 34.6482010 37.3212011 39.2352012 40.2982013 41.582

SE PIDE:

A) TASA DE CRECIMIENTO INTERANUAL DEL PERIODO DE CADA AO

T.C.A =VF

VI1100

T.C.A=29.229

27.4621100 = 6.4

T.C.A=30.523

29.2291100 = 4.4

T.C.A =31.852

30.5231100 = 4.4

T.C.A =33.201

31.8521100 = 4.2

T.C.A =34.995

33.2011100 = 5.4

T.C.A =

34648

34.9951100

= - 0,99


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T.C.A =37.321

34.6481100 = 7.7T.C.A =

39.235

37.3211100 = 5.1

T.C.A =40.298

39.2351100 = 2.7

T.C.A =41582

402981100 = 3.2

b) TASA DE CRECIMIENTO ANUAL ACUMULATIVA DEL PERIODO

T.C.A.A =

T1

VF

VI1100

T.C.A.A =111

41582

27462 -1 *100

T.C.A.A =10

1.5141 -1*100

T.C.A.A = 4.2 %

C) TASA SIMPLE DEL PERIODO

T.S =VF

VI1100

T.S =41.582

274621100

T.S = 51.4

D) GRAICAR LA VARIA!LE DE CONSUMO PRIVADO "CONSUMO DE LOSECUATORIANOS)


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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,00035,000

40,000

45,000

27,46229,229 30,523

31,852 33,201 34,995 34,64837,321

39,235 40,29841,

NSUMO PRIVADO DEL PAIS ENTRE 2003-20

ELABORADO POR:MENDOZA ARGUDO JEAN CARLOSFUENTE:BANCO CENTRAL DEL ECUADOR

E) ANALISIS

En ! "#$n '()+ "++$ n+# / ! +n$+ "#)+ !+$ +#)n+$ + )+ )n#nn+ (+# $)&n)()), $+ $ n "+# "# ! n ! +n+ "+#/ &n# '$ n# )n#+ n n())+ ! "$, "#+ "# !+$+n$)+#$ n+ +" n n ) / nn n n) )n#+ n!+$ )$)n+$ "#++$ / /)#n +n$n. D+$ n# n n n "n+ (+# / $ ! )n#n+ (n$ #+.

T#$%#$&'( %# V(*'(b+# M(&*,

y'

- (.b/

b-

x

2

x2

n nxyx y

= ybx

n

S# '%#:


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() C(+&+(* +( #$%#$&'( %#+ &,$, *'(%, %#+ E&(%,* (( #+ 2020b) G*('&(* +,( (*'(b+# +( #$%#$&'( %#+ #*',%,&) A$+''

=

x

2

x2

n nxyx y

=11 (2617593 )(66)(410796)

11 (506 )(66)2

=2879352327112536

55664356

=1680987

1210

= 1389 )!!+n$ !#$

= ybx

n

; < x

2

1 30.523 30.523 12 31.852 63.704 43 33.201 99.603 94 34.995 139.980 165 34.648 173.240 256 37.321 223.926 367 39.235 274.645 498 40.298 322.384 649 41.582 374.238 81

10 43.201 432.010 10011 43.940 483.340 121S( $ $ $66 410.796 2.617.593 506


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=410.7961389 (66)

11

=410.79691674

11

=319122

11

= 29011 )!!+n$

C!!# y'

y'

=a+bx

05 y '= 29011.1389"1)-30400

06 y '= 2901113892:= 31789

07 y '= 2901113893: =33178

08 y '= 2901113894: =34567

09 y '= 2901113895: =35956

10 y '= 2901113896: =37345

11 y '= 2901113897: =38734

12 y '= 2901113898:=40123

13 y '= 2901113899:=41512

14 y '= 29011138910:=42901

15 y

'

= 29011138911:=4429016 y '= 29011138912:=45679

17 y '= 29011138913:=47068

18 y '= 29011138914:=48457

19 y '= 29011138915:=49846

20 y '= 29011138916:=51235


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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 160

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

30,52331,85233,20134,99534,648

37,32139,23540,298

41,58243,20143,940

CONSUMO DE HOGARES PROYECCON 2015!2020

S"#$" 1 S"#$" 2


AN=LISIS

C++ $ " +$## n# 2005-2015 "# $# n'!)$)$ ; / $# $$ "#)# ! n$) ! #))n+ !$ #)!$ ! 1389 )!!+n$ $)&n)() / !+n$+ "#)+ !$ ()!)$ n# 2005-2015 (#+n nn+ n 1389 )!!+n$

"++$ $)# ! +n$+$ "# !/)# +, n ! )$)n "#+)n n $+$ +$ $ $&)# nn+.

y'

29011

30400

31789

33178

3456735956

37345

38734401234151242901442904567947068484574984651235


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CONSUMO PRIVADO DEL PAIS DE !IENES < SERVICIOS DE ECUADOR

EN MILLONES DE D>LARES REALES

AO < ;< ?2


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662

11 (506 )

b=11 (2.617 .593)410.796(66)

a= yb (x )

n

a=410.7961389(66)

11=319122

11=29011millones

y=a+b x

2005 y=a+b x y=29.011+1389(1) -30400

2006 y=a+b x y=29.011+1389(2) - 31789

2007 y=a+b x y=29.011+1389(3) - 33178

2008 y=a+bx y=29.011+1389(4) - 34567

2009 y=a+bx y=29.011+1389(5) - 35956

2010 y=a+bx y=29.011+1389(6) - 37345

2011 y=a+b x y=29.011+1389(7) - 38734

2012 y=a+bx y=29.011+1389(8) - 40123

2013 y=a+bx y=29.011+1389(9) - 41512

2014 y=a+b x y=29.011+1389(10) - 42901

2015 y=a+b x y=29.011+1389(11) - 44290


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2016 y=a+b x y=29.011+1389(12) -45679

2017 y=a+b x y=29.011+1389(13) -47068

2018 y=a+b x y=29.011+1389(14) - 48457

2019 y=a+b x y=29.011+1389(15) - 49846

2020 y=a+b x y=29.011+1389(16) -51235

TENDENCIAS M=IMAS < MNIMAS DE LAS EPORTACIONES DE

!IENES < SERVICIOS

yy1n

3.365

11=306

y1MX=a+b+

2005 y1=306+ 30400 -30706

2006 y1= 306 .31789 -32095

2007 y1= 306.33178-33484

2008 y1= 306.34567 -34873

2009 y1= 306.35956-36262

2010 y1= 306.37345-37651

2011 y1= 306.38734-39040

2012 y1= 306.40123-40429

2013 y1= 306.41512-41818


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2014 y1= 306.42901-43207

2015 y1= 306.44290-44595

2016 y1= 306.45679-45985

2017 y1= 306.47068-47374

2018 y1= 306.48457-48763

2019 y1= 306.49846-50152

2020 y1= 306.51235-51541

y1Mn=a+b

2005 y1= 306B30400-30094

2006 y1= 306 B31789 -31483

2007 y1= 306B33178-32872

2008 y1= 306B34567 -34261

2009 y1= 306B35956-35650

2010 y1= 306B37345-37345

2011 y1= 306B38734-38428

2012 y1= 306B40123-39817

2013 y1= 306B41512-41206

2014 y1= 306B42901-42595

2015 y1= 306B44290-43984


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2016 y1= 306B45679-45373

2017 y1= 306B47068-46762

2018 y1= 306B48457-48151

2019 y1= 306B49846-49540

2020 y1= 306B51235-50929

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

C,$, %# +, ,(*# *,#&&',$ 2015 (+ 2020


A$+''

En ! '() ! +n$+ "#)+ + !+$ ;+$ "++$ # / ! "#+)n

n# !+$ +$ 2015 ? 2020, n ! "$ $ +n$+ $&)# nn+ +,

$+ $ / !$ ()!)$ )nn +n$)# '$ )+ !$ n$ n$)$

/ ;+ n $ "#$nn.


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