CPollino Presentation

8/6/2019 CPollino Presentation

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/cpollino-presentation 1/36

Overview of Climate Change Studies:

u x

arme . o noThe Fenner School of Environment and Society

The Australian National University

not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB),or its Board of Governors, or the governments they represent. ADB does notguarantee the accuracy of the data included in this paper and accepts noresponsibility for any consequence of their use. Terminology used may notnecessarily be consistent with ADB official terms.



Climate change in Australia

CSIRO – Hennessy (2006)



What do predictions mean for….

• What do climate predictions mean in terms of impacts(environmental, social, economic)?

– - -,

• What are the instruments and institutional capacity wehave for achieving adaptation to a changing climate?

– Passive: existing processes

– Active: transformational change

•climate?

• How can we assess these questions?

– Climate Assessment Framework• Relevant, Integrated, Informative, Participatory

• Scientific basis – individual models that are INTEGRATED into amodelling framework

• Communication – Decision Support System



www.potsdam.edu.de/pik



What does a robust climate changeassessment entail?

• An adaptable framework that: – -

• Consider uncertainty• Adaptive: Can focus efforts on understanding the key aspects

o a sys em an re ec new now e ge c ma e c ange s aburgeoning research area)

• Is based on the ‘right’ set of indicators but can grow to

– More than just another report…..



Adapting to a changing climate: RiskManagement

• Risk-Management Approach

– Framework that allows response strategies to be developed now, while we

• STAGE 1: – Establish a set of criteria that identify climate change risks - should

reflect olic and institutional context

• STAGE 2:

– Identify the risks that climate change poses to agricultural industries

• STAGE 3:

– Analyse the risks by examining the nature and likelihood of climatechange in the future

• STAGE 4

– Evaluate the risks using the information from the risk analysis to makedecisions under the risk management criteria

• STAGE 5

– rea e r s y eve op ng an mp emen ng r s rea men p ans w cestablish the strategic setting for action

http://www.daff.gov.au/brs



Frameworks that are Adaptive

Murray Darling Basin Commission: www.mdbc.gov.au




• Integration – Across scales

– Across objectives• Environmental, social and economic

– • Quantitative (e.g. models) and qualitative understanding of the

world –

• Addresses and informs institutional, policy and otherstakeholders needs



MDBC: Integrated Assessment

Murray Darling Basin Commission: http://www.mdbc.gov.au




• ‘State of the art’ models

– Climate h drolo ecolo a riculture human

health, demography, social, economic…., andINTEGRATION models

– ssess uncerta nt es n: c mate pre ct ons;knowledge of and variability in system responses;

models; and the cou lin of different models

– Synthesize information and improve systemunderstanding



Linking Climate to WaterBalance

Climate models - Hydrology



Murray Darling Sustainable Yields: CSIRO

• Project Objectives: – Estimate current and likely future water availability in each

catchment and aquifer in the Murray Darling Basin, considering:

• Climate change and other risks

• Surface-groundwater interactions

– Compare the estimated current and future water availability tothe required to meet the current levels of extractive use

. . .













Linking Climate to WaterBalance to Outcomes

Climate models – Hydrology – Outcomes (Ecological, Social,

Economic)



Using a multi-model approach

• No one approach will be an ideal modelsolution for all rocesses & roblems

– Link different forms of information – Link different types of models: Integration

• Choice of models: Dependent on the purpose and information

available



Integration Model Structure

• Daily hydrology model ofsurface area, volume andWSE in both the NorthernLakes and Narran Lake

• Characteristics of each‘event’ assed throu h to thewater bird response model

• For each event ,likely



Communicating ClimateOutcomes

Decision Support Systems




• Modern Decision Support Systems

– Adaptive

– Interactive and easy to understand – Quantitative, credible, good evidence-base for decision

ma ers

– Facilitate integration

–

• DSSs can be used for communication of…

–

– Scenarios and strategies that are robust to uncertainties

– Research needs to better understand climate changeand it’s outcomes



Packaging it all up

• Decision Support Systems for Climate Change – More than just a set of models

DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMUser rivile es (ex ert vs. default)

ModelsHydrological-Hydraulic models coupled to

Information SheetsBackground information, scientific studies,

Ecological response models

Maps

system observations, model documentation

IBIS: Environmental flow DSS for NSW Wetlands





Climate Change: Regional Assessment

Regional Predictions of Climatechange

Management decisions Drivers

and actions

System change Variables

Economic targets Environment targetsSocial targets

Outputs

−Indigenous

−Landholder

−Indigenous

−Landholder

-Indigenous

-Landholder







Impacts of Climate Change on…

• Water flows

–

– ‘High’ security requirements

• a er qua y

– Salinity – Nutrients

• River and wetland ‘health’

– Ecological indicators• Algae, Vegetation, Birds, Fish





Wetland DSS (Prototype)

Project Background Contact Details Licence



IBIS Component Models

User-friendly

the models andprovides access tosupport nginformation, model

documentation andmodel results

Designed to support

decision-making(short and longterm)



Hydrology / Climate Screen



Ecological Model Outcomes



Integration Model Structure

• Daily hydrology model ofsurface area, volume andWSE in both the NorthernLakes and Narran Lake

• Characteristics of each‘event’ assed throu h to thewater bird response model

•For each event ,

likely



Lessons

• Project process:

• builds relationships between researchers andstakeholders

• builds capacity, promote systems thinking, can lead to

• Participation needs to be flexible and a feature of

• Time, resources and effort are required to engagestakeholders

• Goals of this need to be clearly defined

• ‘Products’ need to be adaptive, iterative andpromote discovery of new knowledge



Carmel.Pollino anu.edu.au

icam.anu.edu.au

Documents

CPollino Presentation