Demandas 2013 por casino

DEMANDA 2015 POR CASINOMesDem. 2015 (t)Dem. Esperada 2015 (t)D2015-D2014 (t)RegionCiudad% DemandaEneroFebreroMarzoAbrilMayoJunioJulioAgostoSeptiembreOctubreNoviembreDiciembreEnero 700840140IArica0.053542.522.51620.2534.5261930.7523.253429.75Febrero8501020170Iquique0.032125.513.59.612.1520.715.611.418.4513.9520.417.85Marzo45054090IIAntofagasta0.053542.522.51620.2534.5261930.7523.253429.75Abril32038464Calama0.032125.513.59.612.1520.715.611.418.4513.9520.417.85Mayo40548681IIICopiapo0.074959.531.522.428.3548.336.426.643.0532.5547.641.65Junio690828138IVLa Serena0.0856683625.632.455.241.630.449.237.254.447.6Julio520624104VVia del Mar0.17085453240.569523861.546.56859.5Agosto38045676RMSantiago Oriente0.053542.522.51620.2534.5261930.7523.253429.75Septiembre615738123Santiago Sur0.17085453240.569523861.546.56859.5Octubre46555893VIRancagua0.0856683625.632.455.241.630.449.237.254.447.6Noviembre680816136VIITalca0.0428341812.816.227.620.815.224.618.627.223.8Diciembre595714119VIIIConcepcion0.12841025438.448.682.862.445.673.855.881.671.4Total667080041334IXTemuco0.053542.522.51620.2534.5261930.7523.253429.75XValdivia0.0642512719.224.341.431.222.836.927.940.835.7XICoyhaique0.032125.513.59.612.1520.715.611.418.4513.9520.417.85XIIPunta Arenas0.0642512719.224.341.431.222.836.927.940.835.7Total1700850450320405690520380615465680595

Demanda pronosticada 2014 MesD. Pron. 2014DEMANDA ESPERADA 2014 POR CASINONuevasViejasNuevasViejasNuevasViejasNuevas ViejasNuevasViejasEnero 720RegionCiudad% DemandaEneroFebreroMarzoAbrilMayoJunioJulioAgostoAgostoSeptiembreSeptiembreOctubreOctubreNoviembreNoviembreDiciembreDiciembreFebrero706IArica0.0428.7928.2627.7327.2026.6726.1427.327.7618.126.6415.487.0316.417.3817.227.5617.64Marzo693Iquique0.02417.2716.9616.6416.3216.0015.6916.394.6610.873.989.294.229.844.4310.334.5410.58Abril680IIAntofagasta0.0428.7928.2627.7327.2026.6726.1427.327.7618.126.6415.487.0316.417.3817.227.5617.64Mayo667Calama0.02417.2716.9616.6416.3216.0015.6916.394.6610.873.989.294.229.844.4310.334.5410.58Junio654IIICopiapo0.05640.3039.5638.8238.0837.3436.6038.2510.8725.369.2921.689.8422.9710.3324.1110.5824.70Julio683IVLa Serena0.06446.0645.2144.3743.5242.6841.8343.7112.4228.9910.6224.7711.2526.2511.8127.5512.1028.22Agosto647VVia del Mar0.0857.5856.5255.4654.4053.3552.2954.6415.5336.2313.2730.9714.0632.8214.7634.4415.1235.28Septiembre553RMSantiago Oriente0.0428.7928.2627.7327.2026.6726.1427.327.7618.126.6415.487.0316.417.3817.227.5617.64Octubre586Santiago Sur0.0857.5856.5255.4654.4053.3552.2954.6415.5336.2313.2730.9714.0632.8214.7634.4415.1235.28Noviembre615VIRancagua0.06446.0645.2144.3743.5242.6841.8343.7112.4228.9910.6224.7711.2526.2511.8127.5512.1028.22Diciembre630VIITalca0.03223.0322.6122.1821.7621.3420.9221.866.2114.495.3112.395.6313.135.9013.786.0514.11Total7834VIIIConcepcion0.09669.0967.8266.5565.2864.0262.7565.5718.6343.4815.9337.1616.8839.3817.7141.3318.1442.34IXTemuco0.0428.7928.2627.7327.2026.6726.1427.327.7618.126.6415.487.0316.417.3817.227.5617.64XValdivia0.04834.5533.9133.2832.6432.0131.3732.789.3221.747.9618.588.4419.698.8620.669.0721.17XICoyhaique0.02417.2716.9616.6416.3216.0015.6916.394.6610.873.989.294.229.844.4310.334.5410.58XIIPunta Arenas0.04834.5533.9133.2832.6432.0131.3732.789.3221.747.9618.588.4419.698.8620.669.0721.17Futuros CasinosIVCoquimbo0.0535.9835.3234.6634.0033.3432.6834.159.7122.658.3019.368.7920.519.2321.539.4522.05RMSantiago Norte0.0535.9835.3234.6634.0033.3432.6834.159.7122.658.3019.368.7920.519.2321.539.4522.05XOsorno0.0321.5921.1920.8020.4020.0019.6120.495.8213.594.9811.615.2712.315.5412.925.6713.23VIICurico0.0214.3914.1313.8713.6013.3413.0713.663.889.063.327.743.528.203.698.613.788.82IIICaldera0.0535.9835.3234.6634.0033.3432.6834.159.7122.658.3019.368.7920.519.2321.539.4522.05Total1719.69706.48693.26680.04666.83653.61683.00194.10452.90165.90387.10175.80410.20184.50430.50189.00441.00615.00

Produccion de FichasMaquinas Productoras de Fichas AntiguasMaterialF. AntiguasF. NuevasMaquinaCap. Prod. Max x diaTon/ hr. ProdCto Prod. (%)MermasDimension$ CostoCu (%)0.920.7A120.6250.20.10.8100,000,000Al (%)0.060B80.50.30.070.780,000,000Ni (%)0.020.15C50.3750.250.050.550,000,000Zn (%)00.15Total11Maquinas Productoras de Fichas NuevasPeso (g)3.57MaquinaCap. Prod. Max x diaTon/ hr. ProdCto Prod. (%)MermasDimension$ CostoFichas x ton285,714142,857A100.4250.250.10.5200,000,000$ x 1000 fichas50,00085,000B60.3750.30.070.7120,000,000$ x ton14,285,71412,142,857C40.30.20.050.690,000,000

Capital850,000,000

BodegasCap (ton)Dimension (ha)Costo Adq.50.02515,000,000Comparacion Maquinas produciendo fichas antiguas a capacidad maxima diaria en 2 hectareasMaquinaTiempo (hrs)Cap Prod MaxMermas (ton)Total fichas diarias a vender (ton)maq x 2 ha + bodIngreso neto x diaCosto ProdCosto transCosto mat primaIngreso bruto x diaCto adq. bodegaCto adq. MaquinaRec.capital inversion (dias)ha ocup.UbicacinRegionCosto Adq.Dimension$ x haA19.2121.210.82308,571,42961,714,28692,571,42924,418,800154,285,714150,000,000200,000,0002.271.85Tal-TalII100,000,0002.540,000,000B1680.567.442212,571,42963,771,42963,771,42916,821,84085,028,57190,000,000160,000,0002.941.55VallenarIII150,000,0003.542,857,143C13.333333333350.254.753203,571,42950,892,85761,071,42910,739,75091,607,14390,000,000150,000,0002.621.65LampaRM250,000,0002125,000,000Los AngelesVIII180,000,000290,000,000Comparacion Maquinas produciendo fichas nuevas a capacidad maxima diaria en 2 hectareasFrutillar X200,000,0002.774,074,074MaquinaTiempo (hrs)Cap Prod MaxMermas (ton)Total fichas diarias a vender (ton)maq x 2 ha + bodIngreso netoCosto ProdCosto transCosto mat primaIngreso brutoCto almacen prod diariaCto MaquinaRec.capital inversion (dias)ha ocup.Pto AysenXII120,000,0001.580,000,000A23.529411764710193385,714,28696,428,571115,714,28629,160,000173,571,429180,000,000600,000,0004.491.8B1660.425.582159,428,57147,828,57147,828,57120,088,00063,771,42960,000,000240,000,0004.701.5C13.333333333340.23.83162,857,14332,571,42948,857,14312,825,00081,428,57160,000,000270,000,0004.051.9

Pronostico Regresion Lineal

Estadsticas de la regresinCoeficiente de correlacin mltiple0.2569252245Coeficiente de determinacin R^20.066010571R^2 ajustado-0.0273883719Error tpico156.6667286614Observaciones12

ANLISIS DE VARIANZAGrados de libertadSuma de cuadradosPromedio de los cuadradosFValor crtico de FRegresin117347.02797202817347.0279720280.70675929470.4201688529Residuos10245444.63869463924544.4638694639Total11262791.666666667

CoeficientesError tpicoEstadstico tProbabilidadInferior 95%Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%Superior 95,0%Intercepcin610.757575757696.42170608896.33423323990.0000852316395.9166271679825.5985243473395.9166271679825.5985243473Variable X 1-11.01398601413.1011300077-0.84068977310.4201688529-40.205122663818.1771506359-40.205122663818.1771506359

Aum. Dem. Esperada1.2

Anlisis de los residuales

ObservacinPronstico para YResiduosPronostico Demanda 2014 Regresion linealMAD1599.7435897436100.2564102564MesDem. 2013 (ton)Dem. Estimada 2014Dem. Esperada 2014 (t)Dif. Absoluta164.3959673662588.7296037296261.2703962704Enero 599.74719.69840120.313577.7156177156-127.7156177156Febrero588.73706.481020313.524566.7016317016-246.7016317016Marzo577.72693.26540153.265555.6876456876-150.6876456876Abril566.70680.04384296.046544.6736596737145.3263403263Mayo555.69666.83486180.837533.6596736597-13.6596736597Junio544.67653.61828174.398522.6456876457-142.6456876457Julio533.66640.3962416.399511.6317016317103.3682983683Agosto522.65627.17456171.1710500.6177156177-35.6177156177Septiembre511.63613.96738124.0411680.3459642-9.6037296037Octubre500.62600.7455842.7412478.5897435897116.4102564103Noviembre680.30816.36576240.36Diciembre478.59574.31714139.69Total6660.707992.8477641972.75

Pronostico Med. Mov y Suav. ExpDEMANDA PRONOSTICADA METODO DE LOS PROMEDIOS MOVILES 2014Periodo2013DemandaDDA. Esp. 2014 (t)2014D. 2013DDA. pron. 3MDif. AbsolutaD. pron. 4MDif. AbsolutaD. pron. 5MDif. AbsolutaDDA. pron. 6MDif. AbsolutaAnalisis erroresMADGrfico comparativo DDA esperada 2014 vs DDA pronosticada prom. Mvil para 3 y 6 meses.1Enero 700840Enero 7003M175.11111111112Febrero8501020Febrero8504M144.56253Marzo450540Marzo4505M117.08571428574Abril320384Abril320800.00416.006M1185Mayo405486Mayo405648.00162.00696.002106Junio690828Junio690470.00358.00607.50220.56541747Julio520624Julio520566.0058.00559.5064.5651.627.6683598Agosto380456Agosto380646.00190.00580.50124.5572.4116.46471919Septiembre615738Septiembre615636.00102.00598.50139.5555.6182.455318510Octubre465558Octubre465606.0048.00661.50103.5626.468.45862811Noviembre680816Noviembre680584.00232.00594.00222640.8175.261520112Diciembre595714Diciembre595704.0010.00642.0072638.475.667044Totales66708004Totales66705660.001576.004939.501156.54339.2819.63754708

DEMANDA PRONOSTICADA METODO SUAVISAMIENTO EXPONENCIAL 2014Grfico comparativo DDA esperada 2014 vs DDA pronosticada alis. exp alfa= 0,1 y 0,7.2014D. 2013D. pron. 0,1= Dif. AbsolutaD. pron. 0,3 = Dif. AbsolutaD. pron. 0,5 = Dif. AbsolutaD. pron. 0,7 = Dif. AbsolutaD. pron. 0,9 = Dif. AbsolutaAnalisis erroresMADEnero 70084008400840084008400= 0,1218.5706890552Febrero850840180.00840.00180.00840.00180.00840.00180.00840180.00= 0,3213.798184056Marzo4501018.80478.801016.40476.401014.00474.001011.60471.601009.2469.20= 0,5231.7735420276Abril320608.26224.26743.90359.90878.40494.401011.74627.741143.936759.94= 0,7406.5254978499Mayo405418.5967.41536.6150.61719.04233.04965.06479.061273.85088787.85= 0,91071.679959951Junio690487.63340.37533.38294.62674.42153.58956.45128.451424.3589504596.36Julio520803.72179.72771.62147.62818.65194.651051.82427.821621.107666432997.11Agosto380658.05202.05714.58258.58803.19347.191070.73614.731813.19627974661357.20Septiembre615489.37248.63576.45161.55709.9228.081036.21298.212003.85198212631265.85Octubre465722.92164.92724.12166.12794.95236.951091.82533.822237.96014069641679.96Noviembre680588.95227.05651.28164.72755.9760.031084.53268.532472.79695195211656.80Diciembre595805.0791.07805.6691.66861.58147.581155.80441.802752.22070810832038.22Totales66708281.3535313282404.27757960698754.00252084342351.78002461589710.1273507842549.50896230412115.78047634934471.780476349319432.479559461611788.4795594616