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CIAE-00 INL-00FAAE-00 FBIE-00NSAE-00 ISN-00SCRS-00
DSCC-00SWCI-00 /000W82141 232146Z DNI-00 DODE-00VCI-00 H-00ISNE-00
FMPC-00PRM-00 DRL-00/38 RELEASED IN PARTBl, 1.4(D)ACTION WHA
-00NCLASSIFIED15INFO LOG-00 AID-00 AMAD-00DOTE-00 DS-00B-00TEDE-00
INR-00 vrIE-00SP-00SO-00 SS-00G-00FAT-00 SAS-00R 232228Z JUN 06FM
AMEMBASSY MEXICOTO SECSTATE WASHDC 1823
INFO ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICOAMEMBASSY CARACASNSC WASHDC
COLLECTIVE
CONFIDENTIAL MEXICO 003486
SENSITIVESIPDISE.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2016TAGS: PGOV, PINR,
PREL, MXSUBJECT: FINAL POLLS GIVE NARROW LEAD TO LOPEZ OBRADOR
Summary: Over the last several days, Mexicanhed before the July
2 election. The five
two and four percent to the Party of the Democratic(PRD) Andres
Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), overlls' margin of
- governing InstitutionalI) consistently polls in third
place,results suggests that the
between the three
first place position, and couldMexico's
ing experts, most concurred that AMLO's lead overredict the
outcome ofcould influence the
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATEREVIEW AUTHO RITY: OSCAR J
OLSONDATE/CASE ID: 17 FEB 2009 200704261NCLASSIFIED
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outcome. End summary.NCLASSIFIEDAMLO Enjoys the Edge in What
Remains a "Technical Tie"2. (C) As Mexican electoral law does not
permit polls to bepublished after June 23, major polling firms have
releasedthe results of their final pre - election firms over the
lastfew days. The five most influential Mexican polls all give
aslight advantage to AMLO, albeit his margin is generallywithin the
margin of error of each poll. According to theaverage of the five
polls, AMLO leads Calderon by 36% to32.8%, with a third place
Roberto Madrazo polling 26.9%.Individually, the polls show the
following results:Parametria/Excelsior: AMLO 36.541, Calderon
32.5%, Madrazo27%; Reforma: AMLO 36%; Calderon 34%, Madrazo 25%;
Mitofsky:O 368, Calderon 33%, and Madrazo 27%; Maria de
laseras/Milenio: AMLO 35.4%, Calderon 30.58, and Madrazo 29.6%;
theds for AMLO -- was released four days earlier than
he very latest trends. it is also worth noting that the
ere somewhat
PAN will win 33% of the vote, the PRI 32% and theed to win 33%,
the PAN 33% and the PRD 30%.
sters
ky polls) as well as political analysts, discussed theO enjoyed
a lead of approximately two
race was too close to call. As Mitofsky's Roy
UNCLASSIFIED
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enable the polls to reliablNCLASSIFIEDy pick the winner."
Severalpointed out that at this point in the 2000 caign, theaverage
of all polls showed the PRI with a 2.7%amp lead over thePAN. While
that margin narrowed in subsequent, pre-election(but unpublished)
tracking polls, the PAN never managed totake the lead before
Election Day. Nevertheless, on ElectionDay 2000, PAN candidate
Vicente Fox defeated his PRI opponentby a margin of over 6%.5.
(SBU) The speakers singled out a number of other factorsthat could
influence the outcome. At least one noted thatAMLO's strongest
support was among the poor and uneducated,populations that were
least likely to vote. Accordingly, alow participation rate would
tend to favor the PAN and PRI,and the parties' get - out-the-vote
operations could proveecisive on Election Day. Undecided voters
appear to favorO, while those "voting strategically" -- i.e.,
would-bevoters who decide to vote for their second choice
o's reduced chances -- tend ton. Those voting for change --
the
iled on Election Day 2000 -- would bek for AMLO. Several noted
that media
to the Wire
lect this lead. On the other hand,AMLO's slight advantage, the
Mexican
's ability to get many of his supporters to
Web Site attp : //www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocit y
UNCLASSIFIED
