Departamento de Estado, elecciones presidenciales México 24

8/8/2019 Departamento de Estado, elecciones presidenciales Mxico 24

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02F17A 011307Z /38R 011405Z AUG 06FM AMEMBASSY MEXICOTO SECSTATE WASHDC 2446INFO ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVEDEPT OF TREASURY WASHDCDEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDCCDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FLCDR USNORTHCOMNSC WASHDC

UNCLAS MEXICO 004238

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SENSITIVESIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/ATAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, MXSUBJECT: AMLO URGES SUPPORTERS "TO SAVE DEMOCRACY"

REF: A. A) MEXICO 3953B. B) MEXICO 3832

. (SBU) Summary: At his third mass "informational meeting,"Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO, presidential candidate ofhe Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), called on hisupporters to begin a continuous vigil until the electoralibunal (TEPJF) issues its final decision with respect to

he presidential election results. Speaking before a crowdaryingly estimated at between 180,000 and 2 millionarticipants, AMLO called upon his supporters to set upcamps" on Mexico City's central plaza and on majororoughfares. Within hours and in what was clearly aell-organized effort, large tents were erected along severalajor thoroughfares, causing havoc to Mexico City's alreadymplicated traffic. In considerably broadening his campaigncivil disobedience in a manner that will directly impacte lives of millions of Mexico City residents, AMLO isrsuing a high risk strategy that ensures his cause will notignored -- and that risks alienating many erstwhilepporters. End summary.

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATEREVIEW AUTHOR ITY: OSCAR J OLSONDATE /CASE ID: 22 MAY 2009 200704261

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UNCLASSIFIEDThe Two Million Man March Falls Short

2. (SBU) On July 30, AMID led thousands of supporters, manybused in from out-of-town, in a march along Mexico'sprincipal thoroughfare to the Zocalo or central square, wherehe addressed the assembled masses. The march and rally wasthe third in the series of "informational meetings" he has

held since the July 2 election (ref A). Estimates of thecrowd size varied widely and as usual were highlypoliticized. While the Federal Preventative Police (PFP)estimated the crowd at 180,000, the PRD-led Mexico Citygovernment estimated it at two million, neatly matching thegoal the party had set in advance of the event. Dailynewspaper Reforma claimed to have conducted a careful studyof the size of the crowd, based upon an enlarged, aerialphoto, and estimated it at 348,000. A poloff who attendedboth yesterday's rally and the first one (ref B) noted thatalthough yesterday's rally appeared somewhat larger than thefirst one -- at which the crowd was estimated at between

150,000 and 280,000 -- it was not dramatically larger,suggesting that the Reforma estimate may be closer to themark than either of the two conflicting official estimates.

3. (U) Speaking to his assembled supporters, AMLO announcedhat the challenge they faced was one of saving Mexican

democracy. He noted that in a country as unequal as Mexico,democracy provided millions of poor their only hope ofmproving their lives, and that once democratic means ofrotest are restricted, the only remaining alternatives areubmission or violence. He contended that the TEPJF

magistrates were being subject to strong pressures from those

who consider themselves "Mexico's masters and lords." Hedded "it's not that we do not respect institutions, it'shat in our country, unfortunately, we do not have aadition that assures us that the men managing thestitutions act with rectitude and decency." Further

mphasizing his distrust of institutions, he added that whileany invoke the "rule of law," in Mexico, those responsibler administering justice have used the rule of law toegalize...the abuses that the strong commit," rather thanprotect the weak. He said that while he hoped the TEPJFagistrates would act "responsibly," he mould not sit idlywith his arms crossed."

mping in the Streets

U) AMLO then proposed that he and his followers stay "in

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UNCLASSIFIED7. (SBU) Comment: In going beyond mass rallies a n

d actuallyblocking major Mexico City thoroughfares -- perhaps for anextended period -- AMLO has upped the ante considerably.While until now most Mexicans followed AMLO's rallies and theoccasional small-scale act of civil disobedience on thetelevision news, his current tacti cs will have a directimpact on the lives of millions living in t he Mexico Citymetropolitan area. In pursuing this high-stakes strategy, herisks alienating many people who voted for him , but whoresent the inconvenience created by these blockages.Moreover, while unti l now he appears to have been operatingwith considerable support from the PRD-led municipalgovernment, the municipal government undoubtedly will finditself under increasing pressure both from angry commutersand from business owners whose enterpr ises are being hurt bythe disruption. I t remains to be seen wheth er over t ime, thepolitical price of AMLO's tactics will prove too high tosustain. End comment

Visit Mexico City's Classifi ed Web Site athtt p : / /

www.s tate.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocit yGARZA

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Departamento de Estado, elecciones presidenciales México 24