El suministro mundial de petróleo y gas natural: incertidumbres y desafíos

Mariano Marzo(Facultat de Geologia, UB)

Mesa de Diálogo sobre la Evolución de la Energía Nuclear en España.

4ª Sesión Temática. “La cobertura de la demanda energética en España y la energía

nuclear”

Ministerio de Industria, Turismo y Comercio. Madrid, 19-4-2004

Basically since we have futures markets in oil, the expectations on long term price of oil were extraordinarily

stable - at around 20$/bl.

That meant that, at all times, and whatever the actual spot price was, oil prices were expected to come back (upwards, or downwards, depending on where it would be then) to that

level.

The view of the market on future prices of oil has changed in the past 2 years. The market expects oil prices to still be

around 60-70$/bl 5 years from now, and not to drift down to 20$/bl or somewhere in between.

11-S Irak War

Ratio of Natural Gas Prices to Oil Price

IEA, WEO 2004

EL CÍRCULODEL

MERCADODEL

PETRÓLEO

Exploración

Producción

Transporte

.

Refineria"Stock" deproductos

Dem anda

Precio

Downstream and upstream problems

The visible part of the iceberg

Cumulative oil and gas discoveries and new wildcat wells drilled, 1963-2002

World Energy Outlook 2004

Longwell,H.J., CEO ExxonMobil, 2002

Longwell,H.J., CEO ExxonMobil, 2002

A growing gap

AIE: Decline rates range from 5% to 11% per

year. By 2030, most oil production worldwide will come from capacity that is

yet to be built

World Energy Outlook 2004

Depletion: world gas-production capacity additions

7.3 trillion cubic metres of new gas-production capacity will be

needed over the next three decades (around 260 bcm a

year).

Less than a third of this new capacity will go to meet rising

demand.

IEA, WEO 2004

2000-2030: 3x1012 US $ (E & P 70%)105.000 x 106 per year / 287,7 x 106 per day

World Energy Outlook 2004

Cumulative investment in natural gas, 2003-2030

Cumulative investment needs for gas-supply infrastructure to 2030 will

amount to $2.7 trillion, or about $100 billion per year from

now to 2030.

More than half will be for exploration and development of gas fields.

IEA, WEO 2004

Major net inter-regional oil trade flows (mb/d)

WEO 2004

“Choke points”

WEO 2004

Geopolitical uncertainties

Higher prices = more discoveries?

Longwell,H.J., CEO ExxonMobil, 2002

Reserves: IOC’s vs NOC’s

Chinese and Indian NOC’s

The submerged part of the iceberg “peak oil and gas”

Pessimists (“Hubbertites”)

ASPO 2004

Annual Production Scenarios for the Mean Resource Estimate and Different Growth Rates (Decline R/P = 10)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125

Bil

lio

n B

arr

els

pe

r Y

ea

r

History

Mean

USGS Estimates of Ultimate Recovery Ultimate Recovery Probability BBls-------------------- ---------Low (95 %) 2,248Mean (expected value) 3,003High (5 %) 3,896

DeclineR/P = 10

Note: U.S. volumes were added to the USGS foreign volumes to obtain world totals.

2050 @ 1% Growth

2037 @ 2% Growth

2030 @ 3% Growth

Optimists (“Cornucopias”)

Published Estimates of World Oil Ultimate Recovery

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Trillions of Barrels

USGS 5% 2000USGS Mean 2000USGS 95% 2000Campbell 1995Masters 1994Campbell 1992Bookout 1989Masters 1987Martin 1984Nehring 1982Halbouty 1981Meyerhoff 1979Nehring 1978Nelson 1977Folinsbee 1976Adams & Kirby 1975Linden 1973Moody 1972Moody 1970Shell 1968Weeks 1959MacNaughton 1953Weeks 1948Pratt 1942

Source: USGS and Colin Campbell

USGS (95%, 50% and 5%) vs the rest

EIA 2004

SCIENCE, 18 NOVEMBER 2005, VOL 310