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Juan Manuel Moreno Banco Mundial
Entreculturas, 22 Diciembre 2010
Tres de cada 10 alumnos de secundaria obligatoria no concluyen los estudios
44 por ciento de la minoría étnica A y 48 por ciento de la B dejan la escuela sin ningún tipo de diploma
Sólo tres de cada cinco entrantes a la educación superior se licenciarán en un plazo de 6 años (la mitad si pertenecen a minorías).
World Bank (Human Development Network - Education)
World GDP/capita and Population
A Two Millennium Perspective
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
0
12
0
20
0
28
0
36
0
44
0
52
0
60
0
68
0
76
0
84
0
92
0
10
00
10
80
11
60
12
40
13
20
14
00
14
80
15
60
16
40
17
20
18
00
18
70
19
50
19
98
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
World GDP per capita (1990 international $) World Population (Million)
Source: Angus Maddison, The World Economy : A Millennial Perspective, OECD: Paris, 2001
GDP per
capita World
Population (mill)
World GDP/Capita and Population
World Bank (Human Development Network - Education)
Per Capita GDP for Selected Regions or Countries
(1990 international $, 1480-1998)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1480 1560 1640 1720 1800 1870 1950 1998
Western Europe
Eastern Europe
United States
Latin America
Japan
China
India
Other Asia
Africa
Source: Angus M addison, The World Economy : A M illennial Perspect ive, OECD: Paris, 2001
World Bank (Human Development Network - Education)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Knowledge makes the Difference Knowledge makes the Difference
between Poverty and Wealth...between Poverty and Wealth...
Rep. of Korea
Ghana
Thousands of constant 1995 US dollars
Difference
attributed to
knowledge
Difference
due to
physical
and human
capital
Poverty alleviation:
Education broadens ―agency‖ capabilities. (AmartyaSen)
2 years of schooling for the mother reduces child mortality by about 15%
better health raises workers’ productivity, releases resources for other investments
A Catalyst for development: Knowledge societies --an educated and skilled
population is one of the four pre-conditions for knowledge becoming an effective engine of growth. (Chen and Dahlman 2004). Enables societies to absorb knowledge/adapt to technological change
Essential for creating democratic societies and for increasing equity
A powerful ―vaccine‖ against HIV/AIDs
Every child has a right to an education.
And education yields huge benefits for individuals, families, communities, and society.
7
A country’s wealth and its prospects for development depends on the quality of its people—
the skills and creativity of its workers,
the capability of its leaders to govern well and to manage its resources, and
the ability of its adult generation to raise healthy, educated and happy children –the next generation.
One additional year of schooling
increases an individual’s wage
by 5-10%.
―Half the reduction in child mortality over the past 40 years can be attributed to the better education of women.‖ (Lancet
9/2010) One additional year in average education of women reduces child deaths by 9.5%.
Countries with high female education coped with extreme weather
events better than countries with same income and weather
conditions (Blankespoor, Dasgupta, Wheeler
2010)
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
0% 3% 5% 8% 10% 13% 15%
% grwth govt health spending
% r
eduction U
5M
R 1
990-2
015
5% ec grwth
& 2.5% female educ grwth
& 2.5% roads grwth
& 2.5% wat & san grwth
& 2.5% grwth in all
Aumento de la tasabruta de matrícula en educación primaria
… y de las tasas de graduación en primariade los másdesfavorecidos
Aumento de la demandade secundaria y superior
9
50
60
70
80
90
10
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Year
Low income Lower middle income
Upper middle income High income
World
Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics in EdStats, Sep 2010
Primary net enrollment rates by income group
40
50
60
70
80
90
10
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Year
Low income Lower middle income
Upper middle income High income
World
Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics in EdStats, Sep 2010
Primary completion rates by income group
La Brecha en Tasas de Graduación Crece
Porcentaje de Población
Con Algún Grado de Educación Secundaria
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Po
rce
nta
je
MO & Af N
Sub-Sah Af
Am Lat y Car
Asia E & Pac
Sud Asia
Desarrollado
Europa del
Este
12/22/2010 11
Attainment: Years of Education and Economic Growth
Total Hombres Mujeres
Mundo 10.3 10.7 9.8
Países en transición 12.5 12.2 12.6
Desarrollados 15.9 15.2 16.4
En desarrollo 9.5 10.1 8.9
Países árabes 10.0 10.6 9.4
Europa Central y del Este 12.7 12.7 12.7
Asia Central 11.4 11.5 11.3
Asia Este y Pacífico 10.9 11.3 10.5
América Latina y Caribe 13.0 12.7 13.2
América Norte y Europa Occidental 16.3 15.4 16.8
Asia Sur y Oeste 8.6 9.5 7.6
Africa Sub-sahariana 7.1 7.6 6.4
Gasto en educación y esperanza de vida escolar
Sch
oo
l li
fe e
xp
ecta
ncy
, yea
rs
Public spending on education as % of GDP
0 2 4 6 8 10
0
5
10
15
Burundi
BurkinaFaso
BangladeshC.A.R.
China
Coted'Ivoire
Cameroon
Colombia Algeria
Ecuador
Egypt
Ethiopia
Ghana
Guinea
Guatemala
Honduras
Indonesia
India
JamaicaJordan
Kenya
Laos
Sri Lanka
Morocco
Madagascar
Mali
Mozambique
Malawi
Niger
Nicaragua
Nepal
Pakistan
Philippines
Paraguay
Rwanda
SenegalSierraLeone
Syria
Chad
Togo
Tunisia
TanzaniaUganda
SouthAfrica
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Poor correlation between education spending and outcomes
12/22/2010 14
Learning: Standardized Test Score & Economic Growth
Fuerte desigualdad tanto en el acceso a la educación como en los resultados
Baja calidad en todo el sistema Rigidez estructural Corrupción rampante Sistema escolar paralelo: las tutorías privadas
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Poorest quintile Quintile 2
Quintile 3 Quintile 4
Richest quintile
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Poorest quintile Quintile 2
Quintile 3 Quintile 4
Richest quintile
16
% of youth ages 15-19 who completed a given grade: Latest available data
Indonesia 2007Egypt 2008Nigeria 2008
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Poorest quintile Quintile 2
Quintile 3 Quintile 4
Richest quintile
Within-country inequalities are as big as —if not bigger — than between-country
inequalities
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Bu
run
di
Rw
an
da
Nig
er
Bu
rkin
a F
as
o
Gu
inea
-Bis
sa
u
Ch
ad
An
go
la
Mo
zam
biq
ue
Bu
rkin
a F
as
o
Se
neg
al
Eth
iop
ia
Ma
li
Gu
ine
a
Co
mo
ros
C.A
.R.
Lib
eri
a
Ma
da
ga
sc
ar
Co
te d
'Ivo
ire
Ma
uri
tan
ia
Ma
uri
tan
ia
To
go
Be
nin
Sie
rra
Leo
ne
DR
Co
ng
o
Ug
an
da
Ga
mb
ia
Ma
law
i
Ca
me
roo
n
Les
oth
o
Ta
nza
nia
Co
ng
o R
ep
.
Ga
bo
n
Nig
eri
a
Zam
bia
Gh
an
a
Sw
azil
an
d
Ke
nya
Nam
ibia
So
uth
Afr
ica
Zim
ba
bw
e
Pro
po
rtio
n
Richest quintile Poorest quintile Average grade 6 completion
Source: Filmer, Deon. 2010. ―Education Attainment and Enrollment around the World: An International Database.‖ http://econ.worldbank.org/projects/edattain
Grade 6 completion of 15-19 year olds in the richest and poorest quintiles.
Years of education completed by ethnicity (20-28
yr olds)
Bulgarian
Turkish
Roma
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Years of completed schooling
(%)
Fuerte desigualdad tanto en el acceso a la educación como en los resultados
Baja calidad en todo el sistema
Rigidez estructural
Corrupción rampante
Sistema escolar paralelo: las tutorías privadas
Proportion
of 15-19
year olds
who can
read a
simple
sentence,
by highest
grade
completed
20
0.2
.4.6
.81
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7Grade
Dominican Rep. 2007 Kenya 2008-09
Mali 2006 Nepal 2006
About 50% of Kenyan youth
who completed grade 6 cannot read a simple
sentence
90% of Malian youth who completed
grade 4 cannot read a simple
sentence
Fuente: PISA 2000 y 2003
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1 2 3 4
Economic quartile
Ave
rag
e P
ISA
Sc
ore
in
Math
em
ati
cs
20
03
Mexico
Brazil
Uruguay
OECD
Morroco
never enroll dropout gr 1-5
dropout gr 5-9 finish gr 9 w/o basic skill
finish gr 9 w/ basic skill
Grade 928%
Fully literate13%
Brazil
never enroll dropout gr 1-5
dropout gr 5-9 finish gr 9 w/o basic skill
finish gr 9 w/ basic skill
Fully literate8%
Grade 922%
Ghana
never enroll dropout gr 1-5
dropout gr 5-9 finish gr 9 w/o basic skill
finish gr 9 w/ basic skill
Fully literate5 %
Grade 937 %
La ineficiencia resulta en casi igual de inequidad que la inequidad
misma
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
600 650 700 750 800 850
Estatus socioeconomico
No
tas
es
co
lare
s s
ec
un
da
ria
Promedio
ricos
Promedio pobres
Diferencia
entre ricos
y pobres
Diferencia
interna
entre
los pobres
Colegios igualmente pobres◦ Pero uno bien manejado, el otro no
◦ Clase obrera, pequeños comerciantes
◦ Ambos mas o menos iguales en recursos (mismo tipo de maestro, misma ratio P/A
Alumnos de 1er grado◦ Habían hecho al menos un año de preescolar
5 palabras en
60 segundos.
Estandar = 30?
35 palabras en 60 segundos
Fuerte desigualdad tanto en el acceso a la educación como en los resultados
Baja calidad en todo el sistema
Rigidez estructural
Corrupción rampante
Sistema escolar paralelo: las tutorías privadas
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Tota
l hora
s d
e e
nseñanza p
or
año (2
00
0)
Total para edades 9-11 Total para edades 12-14
Fuerte desigualdad tanto en el acceso a la educación como en los resultados
Baja calidad en todo el sistema
Rigidez estructural
Corrupción rampante
Sistema escolar paralelo: las tutorías privadas
Fuerte desigualdad tanto en el acceso a la educación como en los resultados
Baja calidad en todo el sistema
Rigidez estructural
Corrupción rampante
Sistema escolar paralelo: las tutorías privadas
Expansión de oportunidades ha conducido a mayor desigualdad de resultados en muchos países
La ineficiencia en educación perjudica a los pobres
Lectura, lectura y lectura. Profesorado y uso de tiempo en el aula marcan la diferencia
Definiciones de Calidad
Expansion and Consensus-Strength of political commitment to expanding access-Elite consensus around the priority of the education agenda is critical. -Large-scale reform and big-bang approaches can work
Expansion and Control- Centralized policy making and a wide plurality in provision and institutionalization- Structural reforms cannot be sustained unless they are combined with reforms in governance- Mobilization of local communities is a central element of ownership and therefore of success
Expansion and Quality
- Education quality appears to be the pending issue in every success story of education expansion. But that is just in the short term.
- It is the teachers, stupid!!
A set of identified, verified factors:◦ Education system factors School readiness / Early childhood development
Non-early school differentiation
School autonomy
◦ School and classroom factors Structured learning
Time on task
Opportunity to learn
Focus on outcomes
High expectations
Family involvement
Expansion and Finance
- Yes, more money is needed and yes, it makes a difference.
- Not only there is no trade-off between efficiency and equity; they actually go hand in hand.
Por supuesto …
Estados Unidos
ALUMNOS Aumentar la cobertura y
asegurar la calidad de la educación pre-escolar
Compensar niveles socioeconómicos bajos con CCTs
ESCUELAS Asegurar equipamiento
adecuado Garantizar tiempo adecuado
para el aprendizaje Asignar buenos docentes a las
que más los necesitan Asegurar la calidad de
programas de capacitación de docentes
Diseñar incentivos eficaces para docentes
Proveer recursos adicionales a escuelas que atienden alumnos de contextos vulnerables
INSTITUCIONES Descentralizar el poder y
toma de decisiones a varios niveles
Apoyar a escuelas descentralizadas con poca capacidad institucional
Incluir a padres y comunidades en la gestión de las escuelas
Tomar en cuenta los riesgos de aumentar las desigualdades y diseñar políticas compensatorias