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World's Population Grows Increasingly Long in the Tooth

By Todd Neale, Staff Writer, MedPage TodayPublished: July 20, 2009

LITTLE FALLS, N.J., July 20 -- The world is aging so fast that within a decade there will be more people 65 and older than

children under 5 for the first time, the U.S. Census Bureau predicts.

As of last year, there were 506 million seniors worldwide, and by 2040 that number is projected to swell to 1.3 billion, according

to a report by Kevin Kinsella and Wan He, PhD, of the Census Bureau's International Programs Center.

That would double the proportion of older people -- from 7% to 14% of the overall population.

"Declining fertility and improved health and longevity have generated rising numbers and proportions of the older population inmost of the world," the authors wrote. "This represents one of the crowning achievements of the last century but also a significant

challenge as proportions of older people increase in most countries."

The report took an in-depth look at several international population trends highlighted in a 2007 report on aging by the NationalInstitute on Aging and the U.S. State Department.

These involved life expectancy, health, disability, gender balance, marital status, living arrangement, education and literacy,labor force participation and retirement, and pensions among older people.

Developed nations had the highest proportions of older people, and, with the exception of Japan and Georgia, the 25 countrieswith the oldest populations were found in Europe. Japan had the highest percentage at 21.6%.

The U.S. was listed as a relatively young country, with only 13% of its population at least 65 years old.

However, that will change quickly once the baby boomers -- those born between 1946 and 1964 -- start to turn 65 in 2011. By2030, the proportion of older people in the U.S. is expected to reach 20%, still much lower than the projected rates in westernEurope.

Developing countries won't be left out of the surge. Although developed countries have the largest proportions of seniors,developing nations have the most rapidly growing senior cohorts.

As of last year, 62% of world's older people lived in developing countries, with nearly one-third in India and China alone,

according to the report. The percentage of individuals 65 and older living in the developing world isprojected to hit 76% by 2040.

The report also showed thatthe oldest old -- those 80 and older -- are the fastest growing part of the population in manycountries. Overall, this age group is expected to increase by 233% by 2040, compared with 160% for those 65 and older and33% for the population in general.

Centenarians, who numbered just 270,000 in 2005, according to the United Nations,were projected to reach 2.3 million by 2040.

The report was commissioned by the National Institute on Aging. Research for and production of the report were supportedunder an interagency agreement with the Behavioral and Social Research Program of the National Institute on Aging.

Primary source: U.S. Department of Health and Human ServicesSource reference:

Kinsella K, He W "An Aging World: 2008" 2009.

Additional General Geriatrics Coverage

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