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Archivo excel - M. de Monte Carlo
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7/21/2019 Monte Carlo 2015 II
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/monte-carlo-2015-ii 1/4
TREMA 10% Desviacion
Media estandar Ingresos
Inversion de capital $ -50,000 $ 1,000 anuales
gastos anuales $ -30,000 $ ,000 $ 35,000
$ !0,000Mini"o Ma#i"o $ !5,000
ida del proecto 10 1!
Inversion &A'0,1( ida del &A'0,1( Ingresos
)rue*a D&A1 de capital uni+or"e proecto uni+or"e anuales
1 113.35/ $ -!/,/! 0../0 13 0333!! 35000
0005.1 $ -!.,.3. 0!1/!33. 13 05/1. !0000
3 -00311/051 $ -50,031 05/1335 1 01/01/ 35000
! 1/05 $ -!/,1! 0.13.. 13 0!5/ !0000
5 -11!3.5 $ -51,1! 010533 10 003//15 35000
-1/05/. $ -51,/1 0!../!3 1 03.101 35000
050/50!1 $ -!.,!. 0.!!5/// 1! 0!00/15 !0000
/ 1.1!/1. $ -!/,0. 0.3/5 1! 0/!013. !0000
. 00515/0 $ -!.,.5 0010. 10 00031 35000
10 -05//!.3 $ -50,5. 0///../0 1! 0155/! 35000
11 -0/05/! $ -50,/ 0.!05/1 1! 03/.033 35000
1 -1..!0 $ -51,.. 0..5! 1! 050/0/ !0000
13 -03/.13 $ -50,33 0...10 11 0.0.53 !5000
1! 00/31 $ -!.,/ 00/!0! 10 0..555/ !500015 -0/11.3. $ -50,/1 0/!55/ 13 0..!// !5000
1 005055!/3 $ -!.,.!3 0.. 13 01!.0/ 35000
1 -0//3!3 $ -50,/. 0/!00.! 13 013/5.11. 35000
1/ -03//5. $ -50,3. 053131 13 03.55/13. 35000
1. 1!55// $ -!/,5!3 0333 1 031./.35 35000
0 -1.3/30 $ -51,.33 0..551. 1! 010..13/ 35000
1 05/5333 $ -!.,3!1 0!51./1 1 001/30 35000
!/.1 $ -!,51 0335/ 11 0051/0!5 35000
3 -00!5.01 $ -50,0 05. 13 031//!105 35000
! -1.11 $ -51,.1 0501/013 1 0.3/5 !5000
5 -0!0!/.5 $ -50,!0 00/..51 10 0310 35000
0!0.!5 $ -!.,53! 030//./! 11 0!01! !0000
-1!3311! $ -51,!3 05!000331 1 0!3!0.!/ !0000
/ -0300 $ -50,3 015.0/ 11 00/313 35000
. 0!30.. $ -!.,5 05/5330! 1 055.1! !0000
30 -/1!.11 $ -5,/1 0!//1/51 1 0!0!10/1 !0000
31 -0!!35 $ -50,! 01!151 11 0!!!/.5 !0000
3 0055!.! $ -!.,.3! 0..5!1/ 1! 0!050/1 !0000
33 05.350!1 $ -!.,!0 0!/33! 1 030!1/5. 350003! -010503.!5 $ -50,105 00!1 1 0/// 35000
7/21/2019 Monte Carlo 2015 II
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35 -1!./0/ $ -51,!./ 00.003 11 00!!11/ 35000
3 -151!53/ $ -51,5 03000 11 03!!! 35000
3 -000/551. $ -50,00/ 0!11.133 13 0.//0/011 !5000
3/ 0!0//3!.!3 $ -!.,5.1 0!355.3. 1 00/!0./1 35000
3. 05.5 $ -!.,!0 0!10. 1 01030.1 !0000!0 0!!315/ $ -!.,55 0!5101/ 1 0//1!! !0000
7/21/2019 Monte Carlo 2015 II
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)ro*a*ilidad
)ro* acu"ulada
0! 0!
05 0.01 1
astos
D&A anuales )
013.0.5/ -.1/0.! $ -11,3/1
1130/.3! -53/13 $ 3/,3/
-05!3!3 -310//! $ -3,3/
-0./0!///5 -31.0. $ /,3.0
-0.3/.33. -31/.!/ $ -31,.3
03013 -/3.5 $ -/,!
-0!5.0 -30.3133/1 $ 1,55
-0!.1011 -30./3!03 $ 1,1!
130.5 -53.!!!1 $ ,0
0015/5 -.// $ -1,//
0!05!!. -55.1/.1 $ 1.,0!
1!/35 -1!!3.5 $ !,0
-0.5./5 -31.15.53 $ 3!,3!.
-0.3351 -305/!1! $ 3.,/-03!5/ -30/515 $ 51,00
010.!! -/5/051 $ -!,/.
-1/5/0 -33!51 $ -3/,
0.0!!01! -/1.511. $ -,301
-05553 -31111!5 $ -,0!/
-00//33 -3015!5 $ -1,1
-05.531! -3051.035 $ -1/,/10
-0/!5!0 -305.0/05 $ -1/,.
1!5.35!. -0/1.01 $ 5,..
1153! -55.!53 $ ,50
-11!..!/1 -3../.3 $ -3!,150
-1!/5..13 -3.31./3 $ -3,/.!
-1!1530/ -3/30!1! $ -,5/
-0513/5 -31505 $ -,.!/
-0././5/ -31.5.3 $ 5,15
0.5..30! -/0/013/ $ /,!01
-01.303/ -3055/0/ $ 1,/1
0131./1.1 -.303 $ 5,
03.!/!1. -/51031 $ -5,105.. -.!/0 $ -1,!1
7/21/2019 Monte Carlo 2015 II
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0!/!5051 -.030./5 $ -1,.
1..110/ -01/ $ 3,.5
035.!. -./105! $ 1,!.
-10/351 -3130! $ -30,.0
-0!00/ -30!!/013 $ 15,/-1350/.5 -311.3 $ 101
)ro"edio $ 3,.53