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Presentación CONUEE 2017 La Tecnología Diesel: Estado Actual y Perspectivas.Marco Galindo – Gerente Nacional de Ventas Diesel OEM, Robert Bosch México
Status del Mercado HD / MD Diesel en NA
Intern | DS/SNA-MX | 30.08.2017
© 2017 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.2
Comentarios Iniciales
❖ La Industria Diesel HD Local y Regional (Norte América) continua fuerte y muy dinámica
❖ Los Vehículos Comerciales (Autobuses y Camiones) y OH no fueron afectados
❖ Real Driving Emissions (RDE)
❖ Electromobilidad
❖ e – FUELS
Status del Mercado HD / MD Diesel en NA
Intern | DS/SNA-MX | 30.08.2017
© 2017 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.3
➢ Combustibles Alternativos
➢ Sobrevista de Normatividad
➢ La Importancia del Diesel
➢ Tendencias Tecnológicas
➢ Situación Actual / Voces del Mercado
Contenido
Agenda
Status del Mercado HD / MD Diesel en NA
Intern | DS/SNA-MX | 30.08.2017
© 2017 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.4
Principales Indicadores CV Pronostico de Venta CV
Crecimiento del PIB
Confianza del Consumidor
Intención de Compra del Consumidor
Mercado Local
Fuente: ACT Research & FTR
Situación Actual
320226 212 252 264 266 230 233 238 244
243
246 274279 284 287
292 296 297 301
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2015* 2016* 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Heavy Duty Medium Duty
472 486531 553 529522 545563 548
Status del Mercado HD / MD Diesel en NA
Intern | DS/SNA-MX | 30.08.2017
© 2017 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.5
➢ Combustibles Alternativos
➢ Sobrevista de Normatividad
➢ La Importancia del Diesel
➢ Tendencias Tecnológicas
➢ Voces del Mercado
Contenido
Situación Actual
Status del Mercado HD / MD Diesel en NA
Intern | DS/SNA-MX | 30.08.2017
© 2017 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.6
“Nikola reveals a hydrogen fuel cell truck, called ‘The Nikola One’, which has a target release date of 2020. The vehicle commonly referred to as ‘the Tesla of trucks’, is designed for long-haul trips and has the potential to travel between 800 and 1,200 miles on a single tank of fuel; while delivering over 1,000 horsepower and 2,000 pounds of torque.” December 2016
“Daimler’s SuperTruck prototype achieved a 115% increase in freight efficiency, doubled fuel efficiency to 12 mpg and obtained 50% BTE engine efficiency. The prototype included a special lightweight wheel and hub, slashed 700 lbs. from the tractor, and a downsized powertrain that features a 10.7 liter engine with an electric motor and a waste heat recovery system.” October 2016
“Elon Musk has teased a Tesla semi truck that is slated to be released in September 2017. The goal is to show that an electric truck can out torque any diesel semi currently on the road. Leaked images reveal that it resembles the concept of the Nikola One.” May 2017
“Volkswagen has agreed to a 17% technology and purchasing deal with Navistar International Corporation. The forged alliance will aid future emission regulations for both companies; provide VW with a foothold in the North American Market and serve as a new engine source for Navistar. VW will pay $15.76 a share for 16.2 million shares of Navistar.” September 2016
“Volvo’s SuperTruck has an improved freight efficiency by 88% and surpassed 13 mpg. The concept vehicle reduced vehicle weight by more than 3,000 lbs., decreased drag by 40% and improved fuel economy by 70% (when compared to 2009 models).” October 2016
Voces del Mercado
Status del Mercado HD / MD Diesel en NA
Intern | DS/SNA-MX | 30.08.2017
© 2017 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.7
➢ Combustibles Alternativos
➢ Sobrevista de Normatividad
➢ La importancia del Diesel
➢ Tendencias Tecnológicas
➢ Voces del Mercado
Contenido
Situación Actual
Status del Mercado HD / MD Diesel en NA
Intern | DS/SNA-MX | 30.08.2017
© 2017 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.8
Normatividad México / USA Sobrevista
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Regulator
California
Federal
California
Federal
Federal
*Dates and values not defined. Based on feedback from EPA/ARB/Customers** g/kWh
US
/ C
anad
aM
exic
o
CV
CV
NOx ≤ 0.02g/bhphPhase-in expected*
US 2010 NOx(0.2g/bhph) Use of credits allowed. NCP*’s
if no credits available
Add. requirements
Phase 2Phase1
Alternative Fuels – Revisions every 2 years
Ultra Low SulphurDiesel NOM 44 proposal. EU6, EPA equiv.
NOM42 ≈ EPA04 NOM44 proposal. EU6, EPA equiv.
No Requirements NOM44 proposal. EU6, EPA equiv.
Status del Mercado HD / MD Diesel en NA
Intern | DS/SNA-MX | 30.08.2017
© 2017 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.9
~96% reduction
~96
% r
edu
ctio
n
Diesel HDV Standards
Normatividad México / USA Sobrevista
Status del Mercado HD / MD Diesel en NA
Intern | DS/SNA-MX | 30.08.2017
© 2017 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.10
➢ Combustibles Alternativos
➢ Sobrevista de Normatividad
➢ La Importancia del Diesel
➢ Tendencias Tecnológicas
➢ Voces del Mercado
Contenido
Situación Actual
Status del Mercado HD / MD Diesel en NA
Intern | DS/SNA-MX | 30.08.2017
© 2017 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.11
La Importancia de la Industria Diesel
97.2%
1.2%1.6%
OtherCNGDiesel
0.1%
33.8%
0.7%
65.5%
CNG OtherDiesel Gasoline
MD CV Class 4-7
La mayor participación de la F lota Comercial en NA, es predominantemente diesel
Source: 2016 Registration Data, IHS
HD CV Class 8
Status del Mercado HD / MD Diesel en NA
Intern | DS/SNA-MX | 30.08.2017
© 2017 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.12
Nuevas Tecnologías Diesel – NA HD NTDE* en Operación
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: DTF based on IHS class 3-8 registrations and vehicles in operation for the U.S.
NTDE Technology Package• SCR (2011)• EGR• Particulate filter• Injection improvements• Enhanced turbocharging• Ultra-low sulfur fuel
NTDE w/o SCR
Mas del 45% de la flota HD 2016 en NA cuenta con motores diesel de nuevas tecnologías @ MY 2006
* NTDE: New Technology Diesel Engines
Status del Mercado HD / MD Diesel en NA
Intern | DS/SNA-NA | 30.08.2017
© 2017 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.13
Sectores Clave de la Economía dependen del Diesel
Infographics: Courtesia de Diesel Technology Forum
➢ Agricultura
➢ Minería
➢ Construcción
➢ Producción de Petróleo / Gas
➢ Comercio y Logística
➢ Transporte Publico
➢ Servicios de Gobierno
➢ Energía Eléctrica
Status del Mercado HD / MD Diesel en NA
Intern | DS/SNA-MX | 30.08.2017
© 2017 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.14
Situacion Actual
➢ Combustibles Alternativos
➢ Sobrevista de Normatividad
➢ La Importancia del Diesel
➢ Tendencias Tecnológicas
➢ Voces del Mercado
Contenido
Status del Mercado HD / MD Diesel en NA
Intern | DS/SNA-MX | 30.08.2017
© 2017 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.15
CNG Gas Natural Comprimido para uso Vehicular (NGV)
➢ Actualmente hay proyectos de gran dimensión, 50% de los cuales son para incrementar la infraestructura de distribución.
39266
554780
1,600
3,239
OthersTotal DAIMLERVOLVOAUTOCARPACCAR
Red Nacional de Gasoductos
Source: Registration Data, IHS
Source: www.afdc.energy.gov
2016 CNG HD Truck (cl.8) por OEM
Precio de Compra CNG = ~ $ 2.11 / GGE (Gasoline Galon Equivalent)
Status del Mercado HD / MD Diesel en NA
Intern | DS/SNA-NA | 30.08.2017
© 2017 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.16
e F uels H2 Hidrogeno Liquido
Nationwide there are currently 35 H2 public refueling stations available.
Thereof only 3 outside California
21 more are planned: 18 in California
Precio de Compra H2 = ~ $16.50 / kg (2/8/17 Pump Price)
Estación de H2
▪ Heavy-duty tractors and buses have hydrogen options available on a demonstration basis
Vehiculo Disponible en 2020
▪ Light-duty hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles available in select regions
Source: Source: www.afdc.energy.gov
Status del Mercado HD / MD Diesel en NA
Intern | DS/SNA-NA | 30.08.2017
© 2017 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.17
e F uels H2 Hidrogeno Liquido
Nationwide there are currently 35 H2 public refueling stations available.
Thereof only 3 outside California
21 more are planned: 18 in California
Status del Mercado HD / MD Diesel en NA
Intern | DS/SNA-MX | 30.08.2017
© 2017 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.18
Situación Actual
➢ Combustibles Alternativos
➢ Sobrevista de Normatividad
➢ La Importancia del Diesel
➢ Tendencias Tecnológicas
➢ Voces del Mercado
Contenido
Status del Mercado HD / MD Diesel en NA
Intern | DS/SNA-MX | 30.08.2017
© 2017 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.19 Sources: Trucks.com, I.H.S., ATRI, Tech Emergence, Business Insider, FAA, U.S. Department of Commerce, CNBC, Statista
Mega Tendencias Impacto en el Mercado CV Alcance
Camiones Autonomos. Video: Autonomous Trucking Capability beginning for Level 4 Autonomous technology: 2021
I.H.S. forecast: Sales of autonomous trucks will reach 60k in 2035.
Emisiones CO2
Implementacion: 2021
Drones: Video: Drone Delivery Base case: 2020-2023.Drone delivery will represent less than 1% of the overall commercial drone market by 2020.
Commercial drone sales forecast:2017f: 108,0002020f: 327,000
Emergence of E-Commerce: E-commerce sales:
2016: $399 B
2017f: $429 B
2020f: $632 B
Drive Retention Productivity Operational Costs Truck Capacity
Initial Truck Cost Safety Improvements ProductionFuel Savings
Mainstream implementation (2035+)
Productivity Fuel Savings
Unknown: Cost, speed of implementation, customer acceptance,
future regulations
Productivity
Operational Costs
Fuel Savings
Truck Capacity Freight Activity Demand for regional haul/MD trucks
Demand
Produccion (2021)
Menor demanda en2021 para Class 8
Costo OEM
Incremento del costopara 2021.
Costo – Largo Plazo
Ahorros en Consumode Combustible
Presentación CONUEE 2017 La Tecnología Diesel: Estado Actual y Perspectivas.Marco Galindo – Gerente Nacional de Ventas Diesel OEM, Robert Bosch México