17
Premisas de Evaluación 1.El lapso de evaluación del proyecto son 30 anos 2.La tasa mínima para que el proyecto sea atractivo es del 42% ( 30% 3.Se consideraron los siguientes gastos recurrentes 4.Servicios: electricidad, agua, telefonía,Internet, alquiler oficin 5.Se consideraron los siguientes gastos de inversión: 6.Maquinarias,terreno, galpón 7.Se consideró una nómina fija bajo contrato petrolero, de 23 person distribuidas según se muestra en el organigrama 8.Se estableció una tasa de crecimiento de salarios de 15% anual 9.Se realizó la evaluación por los métodos Tasa interna de retorno y 10.La depreciación se cálculo por el metodo de la línea recta 11. Se consideró que la máquinaria se renovaria cada 10 anos

Tasa Interna de Retorno Pdvsa Sensibilidad 3

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Page 1: Tasa Interna de Retorno Pdvsa Sensibilidad 3

Premisas de Evaluación

1.El lapso de evaluación del proyecto son 30 anos

2.La tasa mínima para que el proyecto sea atractivo es del 42% ( 30% Inflación + 12% tasa pasiva Banca comercial)

3.Se consideraron los siguientes gastos recurrentes

4.Servicios: electricidad, agua, telefonía,Internet, alquiler oficinas

5.Se consideraron los siguientes gastos de inversión:

6.Maquinarias,terreno, galpón

7.Se consideró una nómina fija bajo contrato petrolero, de 23 personasdistribuidas según se muestra en el organigrama

8.Se estableció una tasa de crecimiento de salarios de 15% anual

9.Se realizó la evaluación por los métodos Tasa interna de retorno y Valor presente neto

10.La depreciación se cálculo por el metodo de la línea recta

11. Se consideró que la máquinaria se renovaria cada 10 anos

Page 2: Tasa Interna de Retorno Pdvsa Sensibilidad 3

Premisas de Evaluación

2.La tasa mínima para que el proyecto sea atractivo es del 42% ( 30% Inflación + 12% tasa pasiva Banca comercial)

Page 3: Tasa Interna de Retorno Pdvsa Sensibilidad 3

1 2 3 4 5 6nomina servicios depreciación subcontratos Manteni. ingresos

2013 -7.68 -0.17 -3.88 -77.00 -5.81 110.002014 -8.45 -0.20 -4.46 -88.55 -6.68 126.502015 -9.32 -0.23 -5.12 -101.83 -7.69 145.472016 -10.29 -0.26 -5.89 -117.11 -8.84 167.302017 -11.36 -0.30 -6.78 -134.67 -10.17 192.392018 -12.54 -0.35 -7.79 -154.87 -11.69 221.252019 -13.84 -0.40 -8.96 -178.11 -13.45 254.442020 -15.29 -0.46 -10.31 -204.82 -15.46 292.602021 -16.89 -0.53 -11.85 -235.54 -17.78 336.492022 -18.66 -0.61 -13.63 -270.88 -20.45 386.972023 -20.62 -0.70 -15.68 -311.51 -23.52 445.012024 -22.78 -0.80 -18.03 -358.23 -27.04 511.762025 -25.19 -0.92 -20.73 -411.97 -31.10 588.532026 -27.84 -1.06 -23.84 -473.76 -35.76 676.812027 -30.79 -1.22 -27.42 -544.83 -41.13 778.332028 -34.06 -1.40 -31.53 -626.55 -47.30 895.082029 -37.68 -1.61 -36.26 -720.54 -54.39 1029.342030 -41.69 -1.85 -41.70 -828.62 -62.55 1183.742031 -46.14 -2.13 -47.96 -952.91 -71.94 1361.302032 -51.08 -2.45 -55.15 -1095.85 -82.73 1565.492033 -56.56 -2.82 -63.42 -1260.22 -95.13 1800.322034 -62.65 -3.24 -72.94 -1449.26 -109.40 2070.372035 -69.41 -3.73 -83.88 -1666.65 -125.82 2380.922036 -76.92 -4.29 -96.46 -1916.64 -144.69 2738.062037 -85.27 -4.93 -110.93 -2204.14 -166.39 3148.772038 -94.55 -5.67 -127.57 -2534.76 -191.35 3621.082039 -104.87 -6.52 -146.70 -2914.97 -220.05 4164.252040 -116.35 -7.50 -168.71 -3352.22 -253.06 4788.882041 -129.13 -8.63 -194.01 -3855.05 -291.02 5507.222042 -143.36 -9.92 -223.11 -4433.31 -334.67 6333.30

Page 4: Tasa Interna de Retorno Pdvsa Sensibilidad 3

6-1-2-3-4-5-7 7 ing.-gastosing.-gastos inversion inicial Dólars equiv.

-38.75 38.75 -$6,151,047.6215.46 -38.75 $2,454,257.1418.16 0.00 $2,883,332.2221.28 0.00 $3,378,060.6324.91 0.00 $3,953,221.1529.12 0.00 $4,621,500.8934.00 0.00 $5,397,552.2639.68 0.00 $6,298,293.9546.26 0.00 $7,343,257.7753.90 0.00 $8,554,988.1562.74 0.00 $9,959,502.25

-83.76 -156.76 -$13,295,719.6284.87 0.00 $13,471,574.7998.62 0.00 $15,653,715.89

114.53 0.00 $18,179,318.65132.94 0.00 $21,101,516.37154.23 0.00 $24,481,573.73

-342.42 0.00 -$54,352,734.46207.32 0.00 $32,908,585.27240.22 0.00 $38,130,811.67

-243.04 -521.28 -$38,577,891.26322.15 0.00 $51,135,696.48372.88 0.00 $59,186,635.23431.44 0.00 $68,483,273.23499.06 0.00 $79,216,271.20577.11 0.00 $91,605,269.55667.19 0.00 $105,903,273.44771.13 0.00 $122,401,699.25891.05 0.00 $141,436,182.40

1029.38 0.00 $163,393,260.871188.92 0.00 $188,718,066.21

Km ejecutados: 22tir: 55.30VPN: 17.45 MMBstim: 42 %

Page 5: Tasa Interna de Retorno Pdvsa Sensibilidad 3

1 2 3 4 5 6MMBS Gerencia Siaho Administracion RRHH Legal G.construccion

1 7.68 550000 264000 264000 330000 330000 4400002 8.45 605000 290400 290400 363000 363000 4840003 9.32 695750 319440 319440 399300 399300 5324004 10.29 800112.5 351384 351384 439230 439230 5856405 11.36 920129.4 386522.4 386522.4 483153 483153 6442046 12.54 1058149 425174.64 425174.64 531468.3 531468.3 708624.47 13.84 1216871 467692.104 467692.104 584615.13 584615.13 779486.848 15.29 1399402 514461.3144 514461.3144 643076.643 643076.643 857435.5249 16.89 1609312 565907.4458 565907.44584 707384.3073 707384.3073 943179.0764

10 18.66 1850709 622498.1904 622498.190424 778122.738 778122.738 1037496.9840411 20.62 2128315 684748.0095 684748.0094664 855935.0118 855935.0118 1141246.68244412 22.78 2447562 753222.8104 753222.810413 941528.513 941528.513 1255371.3506913 25.19 2814697 828545.0915 828545.0914543 1035681.364 1035681.364 1380908.4857614 27.84 3236901 911399.6006 911399.6005998 1139249.501 1139249.501 1518999.3343315 30.79 3722437 1002539.561 1002539.56066 1253174.451 1253174.451 1670899.2677716 34.06 4280802 1102793.517 1102793.516726 1378491.896 1378491.896 1837989.1945417 37.68 4922922 1213072.868 1213072.868398 1516341.085 1516341.085 2021788.11418 41.69 5661361 1334380.155 1334380.155238 1667975.194 1667975.194 2223966.925419 46.14 6510565 1467818.171 1467818.170762 1834772.713 1834772.713 2446363.6179420 51.08 7487149 1614599.988 1614599.987838 2018249.985 2018249.985 2690999.9797321 56.56 8610222 1776059.987 1776059.986622 2220074.983 2220074.983 2960099.977722 62.65 9901755 1953665.985 1953665.985284 2442082.482 2442082.482 3256109.9754723 69.41 11387018 2149032.584 2149032.583813 2686290.73 2686290.73 3581720.9730224 76.92 13095071 2363935.842 2363935.842194 2954919.803 2954919.803 3939893.0703225 85.27 15059332 2600329.426 2600329.426413 3250411.783 3250411.783 4333882.3773626 94.55 17318232 2860362.369 2860362.369055 3575452.961 3575452.961 4767270.6150927 104.87 19915966 3146398.606 3146398.60596 3932998.257 3932998.257 5243997.676628 116.35 22903361 3461038.467 3461038.466556 4326298.083 4326298.083 5768397.4442629 129.13 26338865 3807142.313 3807142.313212 4758927.892 4758927.892 6345237.1886930 143.36 30289695 4187856.545 4187856.544533 5234820.681 5234820.681 6979760.90755

Page 6: Tasa Interna de Retorno Pdvsa Sensibilidad 3

7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14C.calidad G.taller Sub contra Procura Ing. De campo Fabricación Transporte Manten

330000 440000 385000 385000 385000 385000 385000 385000363000 484000 423500 423500 423500 423500 423500 423500399300 532400 465850 465850 465850 465850 465850 465850439230 585640 512435 512435 512435 512435 512435 512435483153 644204 563678.5 563678.5 563678.5 563678.5 563678.5 563679

531468.3 708624.4 620046.35 620046.35 620046.35 620046.35 620046.35 620046584615.13 779486.84 682050.985 682050.985 682050.985 682050.985 682050.985 682051

643076.643 857435.524 750256.0835 750256.0835 750256.0835 750256.0835 750256.0835 750256707384.3073 943179.0764 825281.6919 825281.6919 825281.69185 825281.6919 825281.6919 825282

778122.738 1037496.984 907809.861 907809.861 907809.861035 907809.861 907809.861 907810855935.0118 1141246.682 998590.8471 998590.8471 998590.847139 998590.8471 998590.8471 998591

941528.513 1255371.351 1098449.932 1098449.932 1098449.93185 1098449.932 1098449.932 10984501035681.364 1380908.486 1208294.925 1208294.925 1208294.92504 1208294.925 1208294.925 12082951139249.501 1518999.334 1329124.418 1329124.418 1329124.41754 1329124.418 1329124.418 13291241253174.451 1670899.268 1462036.859 1462036.859 1462036.8593 1462036.859 1462036.859 14620371378491.896 1837989.195 1608240.545 1608240.545 1608240.54523 1608240.545 1608240.545 16082411516341.085 2021788.114 1769064.6 1769064.6 1769064.59975 1769064.6 1769064.6 17690651667975.194 2223966.925 1945971.06 1945971.06 1945971.05972 1945971.06 1945971.06 19459711834772.713 2446363.618 2140568.166 2140568.166 2140568.16569 2140568.166 2140568.166 21405682018249.985 2690999.98 2354624.982 2354624.982 2354624.98226 2354624.982 2354624.982 23546252220074.983 2960099.978 2590087.48 2590087.48 2590087.48049 2590087.48 2590087.48 25900872442082.482 3256109.975 2849096.229 2849096.229 2849096.22854 2849096.229 2849096.229 2849096

2686290.73 3581720.973 3134005.851 3134005.851 3134005.85139 3134005.851 3134005.851 31340062954919.803 3939893.07 3447406.437 3447406.437 3447406.43653 3447406.437 3447406.437 34474063250411.783 4333882.377 3792147.08 3792147.08 3792147.08019 3792147.08 3792147.08 37921473575452.961 4767270.615 4171361.788 4171361.788 4171361.7882 4171361.788 4171361.788 41713623932998.257 5243997.677 4588497.967 4588497.967 4588497.96702 4588497.967 4588497.967 45884984326298.083 5768397.444 5047347.764 5047347.764 5047347.76373 5047347.764 5047347.764 50473484758927.892 6345237.189 5552082.54 5552082.54 5552082.5401 5552082.54 5552082.54 55520835234820.681 6979760.908 6107290.794 6107290.794 6107290.79411 6107290.794 6107290.794 6107291

Page 7: Tasa Interna de Retorno Pdvsa Sensibilidad 3

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 23Maquinaria izamiento subalterno subalterno subalterno subalterno subalterno subalterno

385000 385000 275000 275000 275000 275000 275000 275000423500 423500 302500 302500 302500 302500 302500 302500465850 465850 332750 332750 332750 332750 332750 332750512435 512435 366025 366025 366025 366025 366025 366025

563678.5 563678.5 402627.5 402627.5 402627.5 402627.5 402627.5 402627.5620046.35 620046.35 442890.25 442890.25 442890.25 442890.25 442890.25 442890.25

682050.985 682050.985 487179.275 487179.275 487179.275 487179.275 487179.275 487179.275750256.0835 750256.0835 535897.2025 535897.2025 535897.2025 535897.2025 535897.2025 535897.2025825281.6919 825281.6919 589486.9228 589486.9228 589486.9228 589486.9228 589486.9228 589486.9228

907809.861 907809.861 648435.615 648435.615 648435.615 648435.615 648435.615 648435.615998590.8471 998590.8471 713279.1765 713279.1765 713279.1765 713279.1765 713279.1765 713279.17651098449.932 1098449.932 784607.0942 784607.0942 784607.0942 784607.0942 784607.0942 784607.09421208294.925 1208294.925 863067.8036 863067.8036 863067.8036 863067.8036 863067.8036 863067.80361329124.418 1329124.418 949374.584 949374.584 949374.584 949374.584 949374.584 949374.5841462036.859 1462036.859 1044312.042 1044312.042 1044312.042 1044312.042 1044312.042 1044312.0421608240.545 1608240.545 1148743.247 1148743.247 1148743.247 1148743.247 1148743.247 1148743.247

1769064.6 1769064.6 1263617.571 1263617.571 1263617.571 1263617.571 1263617.571 1263617.5711945971.06 1945971.06 1389979.328 1389979.328 1389979.328 1389979.328 1389979.328 1389979.328

2140568.166 2140568.166 1528977.261 1528977.261 1528977.261 1528977.261 1528977.261 1528977.2612354624.982 2354624.982 1681874.987 1681874.987 1681874.987 1681874.987 1681874.987 1681874.987

2590087.48 2590087.48 1850062.486 1850062.486 1850062.486 1850062.486 1850062.486 1850062.4862849096.229 2849096.229 2035068.735 2035068.735 2035068.735 2035068.735 2035068.735 2035068.7353134005.851 3134005.851 2238575.608 2238575.608 2238575.608 2238575.608 2238575.608 2238575.6083447406.437 3447406.437 2462433.169 2462433.169 2462433.169 2462433.169 2462433.169 2462433.169

3792147.08 3792147.08 2708676.486 2708676.486 2708676.486 2708676.486 2708676.486 2708676.4864171361.788 4171361.788 2979544.134 2979544.134 2979544.134 2979544.134 2979544.134 2979544.1344588497.967 4588497.967 3277498.548 3277498.548 3277498.548 3277498.548 3277498.548 3277498.5485047347.764 5047347.764 3605248.403 3605248.403 3605248.403 3605248.403 3605248.403 3605248.403

5552082.54 5552082.54 3965773.243 3965773.243 3965773.243 3965773.243 3965773.243 3965773.2436107290.794 6107290.794 4362350.567 4362350.567 4362350.567 4362350.567 4362350.567 4362350.567

Page 8: Tasa Interna de Retorno Pdvsa Sensibilidad 3

Bulldozer 165 hp 1 1000000.00 1000000.00Dobladora de tubos 1 1500000.00 1500000.00Jumbo E300,1990 1 1190000.00 1190000.00Moto niveladora K GD655-3G0-2008 1 1100000.00 1100000.00Camión tubero 1 1000000.00 1000000.00Pluma lateral caterpillar D7G 1 1543000.00 1543000.00Camión con maquina de soldar 1 800000.00 800000.00Bomba centrífuga alto caudal 1 1000000.00 1000000.00Bomba reciprocante alta preión 1 500000.00 500000.00Rayos X 1 1000000.00 1000000.00Camiones 350 3 600000.00 3 1800000camiontas pick up 4x4 3 600000.00 3 1800000Sedán 2 350000.00 2 700000Equipos Menores 1 1000000.00 1000000.00Herramientas 1 1000000.00 1000000.00otros equipos mayores 1 3000000.00 3000000.00Total 19.93

Page 9: Tasa Interna de Retorno Pdvsa Sensibilidad 3
Page 10: Tasa Interna de Retorno Pdvsa Sensibilidad 3

SERVICIOSELEC+AGUA ASEO VIGILANCIA AGUA MIN INTERNET TELEFONO Total

1 10080.00 7200.00 128000.00 18000.00 6000.00 3000.00 172280.002 11592.00 8280.00 147200.00 20700.00 6900.00 3450.00 198122.003 13330.80 9522.00 169280.00 23805.00 7935.00 3967.50 227840.304 15330.42 10950.30 194672.00 27375.75 9125.25 4562.62 262016.345 17629.98 12592.84 223872.80 31482.11 10494.04 5247.02 301318.806 20274.48 14481.77 257453.72 36204.43 12068.14 6034.07 346516.627 23315.65 16654.04 296071.78 41635.09 13878.36 6939.18 398494.118 26813.00 19152.14 340482.54 47880.36 15960.12 7980.06 458268.239 30834.95 22024.96 391554.93 55062.41 18354.14 9177.07 527008.46

10 35460.19 25328.71 450288.17 63321.77 21107.26 10553.63 606059.7311 40779.22 29128.02 517831.39 72820.04 24273.35 12136.67 696968.6912 46896.11 33497.22 595506.10 83743.05 27914.35 13957.17 801513.9913 53930.52 38521.80 684832.01 96304.50 32101.50 16050.75 921741.0914 62020.10 44300.07 787556.82 110750.18 36916.73 18458.36 1060002.2515 71323.11 50945.08 905690.34 127362.70 42454.23 21227.12 1219002.5916 82021.58 58586.84 1041543.89 146467.11 48822.37 24411.18 1401852.9817 94324.82 67374.87 1197775.47 168437.18 56145.73 28072.86 1612130.9218 108473.54 77481.10 1377441.79 193702.75 64567.58 32283.79 1853950.5619 124744.57 89103.27 1584058.06 222758.16 74252.72 37126.36 2132043.1520 143456.26 102468.76 1821666.77 256171.89 85390.63 42695.31 2451849.6221 164974.70 117839.07 2094916.79 294597.67 98199.22 49099.61 2819627.0622 189720.90 135514.93 2409154.30 338787.32 112929.11 56464.55 3242571.1223 218179.04 155842.17 2770527.45 389605.42 129868.47 64934.24 3728956.7924 250905.89 179218.49 3186106.57 448046.24 149348.75 74674.37 4288300.3125 288541.78 206101.27 3664022.55 515253.17 171751.06 85875.53 4931545.3526 331823.04 237016.46 4213625.94 592541.15 197513.72 98756.86 5671277.1627 381596.50 272568.93 4845669.83 681422.32 227140.77 113570.39 6521968.7328 438835.97 313454.27 5572520.30 783635.67 261211.89 130605.94 7500264.0429 504661.37 360472.41 6408398.34 901181.02 300393.67 150196.84 8625303.6530 580360.58 414543.27 7369658.10 1036358.17 345452.72 172726.36 9919099.19

Page 11: Tasa Interna de Retorno Pdvsa Sensibilidad 3
Page 12: Tasa Interna de Retorno Pdvsa Sensibilidad 3

EQUIPOSComputadoras 30 15000 450000.00Muebles 1 1000000 600000.00Red 1 5000 5000.00Aire acondicionado 1 80000 80000.00total 1135000.00

Page 13: Tasa Interna de Retorno Pdvsa Sensibilidad 3

Costo x km A-20" 10000000.00 BsCosto x km B-20" 6500000.00 BsCosto x km C-20" 5000000.00 Bs

Page 14: Tasa Interna de Retorno Pdvsa Sensibilidad 3

INVERSION INICIALTerreno: 6.00 Maquinaria 19.93 Enganche: 0.225 Galpon 5.00Equipos: 1.14total: 32.29 contingencia 6.46total: 38.75 MMBs

Page 15: Tasa Interna de Retorno Pdvsa Sensibilidad 3

GERENCIA (1)

CONSTRUCCIÓN (1) CONTROL CALIDAD (1) TALLER Y ALMACEN (1)

ING. DE CAMPO (2)

PROCURA (2) FABRICACIÓN (1)

TRANSPORTE (2)SUBCONTRATACIÓN (2)

MAQUINARIA (2)

MANTENIMIENTO (2)

IZAMIENTO(2)

ADMINISTRACIÓN (1)

LEGAL (1)

SIAHO (1)

RRHH (1)

Comite

Page 16: Tasa Interna de Retorno Pdvsa Sensibilidad 3

GERENCIA (1)

CONSTRUCCIÓN (1) CONTROL CALIDAD (1) TALLER Y ALMACEN (1)

ING. DE CAMPO (2)

PROCURA (2) FABRICACIÓN (1)

TRANSPORTE (2)SUBCONTRATACIÓN (2)

MAQUINARIA (2)

MANTENIMIENTO (2)

IZAMIENTO(2)

ADMINISTRACIÓN (1)

LEGAL (1)

SIAHO (1)

RRHH (1)

Comite