WGuoqing Presentation

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a er an ma e ange ap a ona er an ma e ange ap a onSt rategies in ChinaSt rategies in China

2 December 2008, Selangor , Malaysia2 December 2008, Selangor , Malaysia

Dr.Dr. GuoqingGuoqing WangWang

, ,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, China

_

The views expressed in this paper/presentation are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect theviews or policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), or its Board of Governors, or the governments theyrepresen . oes no guaran ee e accuracy o e a a nc u e n s paper an accep s noresponsibility for any consequence of their use. Terminology used may not necessarily be consistent with ADBofficial terms.



Contents

How serious of Water issues in China

-

Adaptive strategies to climate change Case study for Yellow River Basin

Expectation and possible collaboration



Flooding

High flood-induced loss, 71% of total losses.

1991, HuaiH River,

1996 South HaiH River

Increasing

1998, Yangtze River, SongHJ River, Min River

2003, Huai River, Wei River, and HanJ River

frequency!

2005, Huai River and HanJ River,

2007, HuaiH River.



Floodin

Im erfect flood defense s stem

Flood detention basin Dam Reservoirs Dyke

1. Vulnerable structural projects: 87,000 flood defense works built.

37% of that can’t work well.

2. Weak nonstructural measures: forecasting, warning system, etc.

• HIGHER FUTURE development, HIGHER flood-induced losses.

• .



Wat er su l

• Features of Drought: large affecting scope, and high losses

1. China: 2200 m3 per person, (1/4 of the world level).

40% of China people live in water-deficit areas.

2. City water supply: 400/668, in water deficit level,108/668, in heavy water deficit,

. ,

• Drinking water security, a big problem.



Wat er supply458 m3

1999

Less thanLess than 1949

Water deficit~ 3

demand



Ec olog ic a l env i ronm ent

Dried Bai an Lake

• 2

.

• Annual losing soil: 5.1 billion tones;

• Pollution in 2004: Class standard reach, 41% of appraisal reach.

• Environment problems: Flow running dry, channel shrinkage,

desertification,

,

shrinkage in wetland, etc.



Change in runoff : China

0

20

i i i i

-40

-20 Y i c h a n

H a n

k o

D a t o n

T a n g n a i h

H u a y u a n

k o

L i j i

W a n g j i a b

W u j i a d

G u a

n t a

S h i x i a l

i a n g s h u

i b a

X i a h u

Z h a n g j i a f e

T i e

l i n

J i a n g q i a

H a e r b i

W u z h o

S h i j i a

Z h u

p a r t u r e ( % )

-

-60Yangze

River

Yellow River Huai

River

Haihe River Songliao

River

Pear and

Min River

D

Basin and station

Departure of average runoff from 1981~2004 (baseline: 1950~1980)

• Trends as a whole decreasing

• Significant decreasing Haihe River, Yellow River, Liao River

, ,

• insignificant increasing M-L Yangze River, Upper Huai River, etc.



Change in r unof f : Haihe River

stationsAverage discharge (m3/s) Departure of runoff in

1981-2004 (%)

1955-2004 Before 1980 After 1980 1955-2004 1950-1980

Guantai 31.3 48.9 10.8 -65.4 -77.9

. . . - . - .

Xiahui 8.61 11.2 6.68 -22.4 -40.1

. . . - . - .



u : w v

StationsAverage discharge (m3/s) Departure of runoff

in 1981-2004 (%)

-2004

e ore1980

er - -1980

Tangnaihai 627 638 617 - 1.6 -3.2

Huayuankou 1240 1460 978 - 21.4 - 33.0

Lijin 1020 1360 605 - 40.5 - 55.5



Contents

How serious of water issues in China

Water-related climate change study

Ada tive strate ies to climate chan e

Case study for Yellow River Basin

xpec a on an poss e co a ora on



Nat ional K e Pro ec t 1992-1996¾ Study Catchments

Tributaries of six bi rivers S o

c i al e c on o

Random weather model

Water balance models i c D a t a b a s e

¾ Assessment Models: LumpedWater Balance Models

mi c d a t a

b a s e

Assessment system of water

o - m

e t e o r o l o

Sub-area140

Effect assessment

Adaptation measures

H y d

10

20

R u n o f f /

¾ Assessment: The future water resources,

0

1960 1962 1964 1966 1968

Time/month

based on outputs of 7 GCMs



Nat ional K ey Pro jec t (1997-2001 )

GCMs or RCM

60km×60kmH y 80

Downscaling of P and T (30km×30km)

30km×30km rid based h drolo ical model

GI S d a t

r o

-m e t e or ol 20

40

60

D R ( %

- 2℃

- 1℃

0℃

Spatial distribution and simulated discharge

a b a s e

o gi c d a t a b a s - 40

- 20

0

-20 -10 0 10 202℃

Sensitivity analysis

e DP(%)

u y : v w v , z v , u v ,Haihe River)

¾ Assessment Models: 30 30km grid based hydrologic model

¾ Assessment: sensitivity analysis



Nat ional K ey Pro jec t (2002-2006)

Study area: China

Assessment Model

mo e

Assessment

vulnerability, Threshold value

Relative change in average annualwater quota in 2050 under the

scenario A2



2

s c en

r i o

• Probability of flood and drought hazards would increase,Change in runoff distribution under the scenario A2

.



B

2 s c e

ar i o

• Similar to that under scenario A2, exacerbating the instability of water

Change in runoff distribution under the scenario B2

system



Ongo ing program s (2007-2010)

a ona ey program ap a on s ra eg es or wa er

vulnerable areas in China”

“

climate change on water security and adaptative

measures in China”



Contents








1. Building a Water-Saving Society

Building a water-saving society, to improve the efficiency of water use,

t s t e un amenta reso ut on to na s water scarc ty.

Index of water usageIndex of water usage

Consumed Water/ 10000GDP(RMB )

-agricultural irrigation water



How to establish a water-saving society

Identify the initial water right.

Total Quantity at macro level (for regions) and

-

Implement the water right trading system to realize high-

efficiency allocation of water resources.

Combining governmental regulation, market orientation and

public participation.



2. Developing & Utilizing of Non-Traditional WR

Develo in & Utilizin of Non-Traditional Water Resources

Maximizing utilization of flood

water (rainfall).

1.35 trillion m3 flood water, be difficult to

be used for normal years. To enhance floodcontrolling engineer and nonstructural

measures



2. Developing & Utilizing of Non-Traditional WR

Utilization of waste water an im ortant resources to be utilized

2006 730 2050 1100-1500Discharged waster water 73 billion tons in 2006 in China, and

will reach to 110 ~ 150 billion tons in 2050.

Utilization of sea water

Small amount has been utilized, as high-cost for the desalination

but there is a great potential of sea water utilization in future



3. Constructing more Water Controlling Projects

To construct reservoirs, river dikes and flood retention areas, to

the capacity of water supply

To construct

,and utilization of water resources in basins.



Haihe river

ML

Huaihe river

EL

YangtizeWL





East Route draw water

from downstream of Yangtze.

Water supply to: Tianjin city,

Sandong and Hebei provinces

Route length

1150km

Operation: 13

65 13 um in

stations, with total pumping

height 65m

Transferrin ca acit :

(Recently): 400 m3/s (water

transfer 6-7 billion m3 per years,

cost 5 billion RMB

(for long term) 1000

m3/s



Middle routeMiddle route Discharge

water from middle of Yangtze

Water supply to: Beijing and

Tianjin cities, and Hebei

provinces

Route length

1246km

Transferrin

capacity:

short term): 350

m3/s

(8-9 billion m3 water transfer

to north per year,



Discharge water

from the upstream

upstream of

yellow river basin,,

of planning and

survey



4. To enhance the Integrated Management of WR

Perfecting Policies, Regulations, to enhance the IntegratedManagement of water resources

for integrated utilization will be issued soon (2002-2008)

Laws and regulationswa er aw

water resources protection law

water usin license A ril 9 2008 issued

local governmental laws orregulations for water resources management



Contents

Water issues in China

Climate change study



ur expec a on an poss e co a ora on



YR I nt roduct ion

ISSUES IN WATER• Location of YRB

Drought

• Water shortage;

• Flooding;Flooding• Water quality

Challenge under the

Soil losing



Impact of environmental change on Runoff

Temperature

C l imate c hange

H uman ac t i vi t i es

Rainfallchange



Impact of environmental change on Runoff

Reced(108m3)

Caled(108m3)

Total

reduction

(108m3)

Climate-induced Human induced

(108m3) (%) (108m3) (%)

Background 237.5

1970-1979148.5 198.5 89.0 39.0 43.82 50.0 56.18

1980-1989 172.7 217.6 64.8 19.9 30.67 44.9 69.33

1990-2000 95.3 181.1 142.2 56.4 39.64 85.8 60.36

- . . . . . . .

In: J.Y.Zhang, G.Q.Wang, Impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources, 2007



60

80

- 2℃60

80

-2℃Re ion

Region0

20

40

D R ( %

- 1℃

0℃

1℃0

20

40

D R ( %

-1℃

0℃

1℃1 2

-40

-20 -20 -10 0 10 20

DP(%)

2℃

-40

-20 -20 -10 0 10 20

DP(%)

2℃

60

80

- 2

- 1

60

80

- 2℃Region Region

0

20

-20 -10 0 10 20

D R (

0℃1℃

2℃0

20

-20 -10 0 10 20

D R (

-

0℃

1℃

2℃

4

Note:DP is change in precipitation, DR is change in runoff

-40

-

DP(%)

-40

-

DP(%)



Main I ssues on Water and Climate Change

Adaptat ion in t he Yellow River Basin

ISSUES IN

ADAPTATIONWater cellarsCheck dams

• a er ce ars

• Dyke

• Terrace, etcDyke

Design standard? errace



Ongoing / Planned Water and Climate

ange aptat on n t at ves n t eYellow River Basin

• Water transfer fromsouth to north

Water transfer• e men an wa er

regulation with

reservoirs

projects-

society

• Ecologicalenvironmentrestoration Integrated water

• Integrated waterallocation

water regulation

• -



Contents



Ada tive strate ies to climate chan e Case study for Yellow River Basin




Ex ectat ions f rom the Re ional Know led eHub (NAHRI M) and its Netw ork

1. New research center under theMWR within Nanjing HydraulicResearch Institute

2. Undertake water-related climate

chan e research

3. Provide scientific assessment forclimate change impacting on water

.

4. Seek for effective measures to adaptclimate change

5. Support climate-related policymaking



Ex ectat ions f rom the Re ional Know led eHub (NAHRI M) and its Netw ork

Climate change proj ect ionsDownscaling technology;

Climate change projections with fine resolution.

I mpact assessment s

Impact of climate change on water quality

Impact of climate change on flood and drought

aptat on st rateg esAdaptation for flood control

Ada tation for water su l

climate-related policy making.



Pro osed col laborat ion w ith NAHRI M

1. Climate chan e and climate scenario

2. Assessment model for climate change impacting on water3. Impact of climate change on water sector

• Flood

• Drought

• Sensitivity and vulnerability of water resources system

4. Feasible and effective adaptation strategies to climate change



Thanks for your attention

The Research Center for Climate ChangeMinistry of Water Resources, China

. .

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WGuoqing Presentation