DESICIO0NES BAJO CERTIDUMBRE.1. Obtencin de la Matriz Tecnolgica. A=[aij]= bij/xj333500/1000000+45600/1600000+75300/1250000+55500/1280000+65100/2000000
422800/1000000+175200/1600000+155900/1250000+165800/1280000+245300/2000000A=357700/1000000+111100/1600000+111400/1250000112100/1280000+112700/2000000
248300/1000000+23400/1600000+122600/1250000+102400/1280000+113300/200000236300/1000000+282000/1600000+361200/1250000+153000/1280000+472500/2000000
0.334 (1)0.0285
0.060240.043359375
0.032550.422280.1095 (1)0.124720.12953125
0.12265
A=0.3577
0.06943750.08912 (1)0.087578125
0.056350.2483
0.0146250.098080.08 (1)
0.05665
0.2363
0.176250.288960.11953125
0.23625 (1)
2. Matriz de Leontieff (I-A) despejar bij de la anterior para obtener aij . xj = bij
0.666
-0.0285
-0.06024-0.043359375
-0.03255
-0.4228
0.8905
-0.12472 -0.12953125
-0.12265
(I-A)=-0.3577
-0.0694375 0.91088-0.087578125
-0.056350.2483
-0.014625-0.09808 0.92
-0.05665
-0.2363
-0.17625-0.28896-0.11953125
0.76375
3. Inversa de la Matriz de Leontieff (I-A)-1
1.7608908140.11339618350.18310781950.13152587080.11652255860.2755194250.3061285010.39871831290.32321816660.3175029840.95221560850.19801698961.2690936720.21723021430.1821288666
0.84366556450.26899385620.28397578251.2163521110.1903264066
0.3314637250.45351597730.67326188950.3878359361.517344801Comprobacin (I-A)-1 * H = XX1=1.760890814 (425,000)+0.1133961835 (435,000)+0.1831078195 (445,000)+0.1315258708 (480,000)+0.1165225586 (495,000)
X1= 1, 000,000X2= 0.275519425 (425,000)+0.306128501 (435,000)+0.3987183129 (445,000)+0.3232181666 (480,000)+0.317502984 (495,000)X2=1, 000, 000
X3=0.9522156085 (425,000)+0.1980169896 (435,000)+1.269093672 (445,000)+0.217230214 (480,000)+0.1821288666 (495,000)X3= 1, 250, 000X4= 0.8436655645 (425,000)+0.2689938562 (435,000)+0.2839757825 (445,000)+1.216352111 (480,000)+0.1903264066 (495,000)X4= 1, 280, 000
X5= 0.331463725 (425,000)+0.4535159773 (435,000)+0.673261889 (445,000)+ 0.387835936 (480,000)+1.517344801 (495,000)X5= 2,000, 0004. Encontrar la nueva demanda Total (X).
X= (I-A)-1 * H
X1=1.760890814 (510,000)+0.1133961835 (522,000)+0.1831078195 (534,000)+0.1315258708 (576,000)+0.1165225586 (594,000)
X1= 1, 200, 000.00X2= 0.275519425 (510,000)+0.306128501 (522,000)+0.3987183129 (534,000)+0.3232181666 (576,000)+0.317502984 (594,000)
X2= 1,920, 000X3=0.9522156085 (510,000)+0.1980169896 (522,000)+1.269093672 (534,000)+0.217230214 (576,000)+0.1821288666 (594,000)X3= 1, 500, 000X4= 0.8436655645 (510,000)+0.2689938562 (522,000)+0.2839757825 (534,000)+1.216352111 (576,000)+0.1903264066 (594,000)X4= 1, 536,000X5= 0.331463725 (510,000)+0.4535159773 (522,000)+0.673261889 (534,000)+ 0.387835936 (576,000)+1.517344801 (594,000)X5= 2,400, 000
Nueva Demanda Total.
X1= 1, 200, 000.00
X2= 1,920, 000
X3= 1, 500, 000
X4= 1, 536,000
X5= 2,400, 0005. Matriz de Insumos B (bij=aij*xj)
b11=667/2000*1200000=400200
b12= 57/21000+1920000=54720b21=1057/2500*1200000=507360
b22= 219/2800+1920000=210240b31=3577/10000*1200000=429240
b32=1111/16000*1920000=133320
b41=2483/10000*1200000=297960
b42=1067/8000*1920000=256080
b51=2363/10000*1200000=283560
b52=141/860*1920000=338400b13=753/12500*1500000=90360
b14=111/2560*1536000=66600b23=1559/12500*1500000=187080
b24=829/6400*1536000=198960b33=557/6250*1500000=133680
b34=1121/12800*1536000=122880b43=613/6250*1500000=147120
b44=2/25*1536000=122880b53=903/3125*1500000=433440
b54=153/1280*1536000=183600
b15=651/20000*2400000=78120
b25=2453/20000*2400000=294360b35=1127/20000*2400000=135240
b45=1133/20000*2400000=135960
b55=189/800*2400000=567000
6. Nueva matriz 2010
Sector Sector UsuarioDemandaDemandaDemanda
ProductivoS1S2S3S4S5IntermediaFinalTotal
S1400,20054,72090,36066,60078,120690,000510,0001,200,000
S2507,360210,420187,080198,960294,3601,398,000522,0001,920,000
S3429,240133,320133,680134,520135,240966,000534,0001,500,000
S4297,960256,080147,120122,880135,960960,000576,0001,536,000
S5283,560338,400433,440183,600567,0001,806,000594,0002,400,000
UNIVERSIDAD DE EL SALVADOR
FACULTAD MULTIDISCIPLINARIA DE OCCIDENTE
DEPARTAMENTO DE CIENCIAS ECONOMICA
MATEMATICA III
CATEDRATICO:
LICDO. JOSE LUIS MENDOZA
TEMA:EVALUACION PARTE B: TOMA DE DESICIONES EN SITUACIONES DE CERTIDUMBRE, INCERTIDUMBRE Y RIESGO. N DE EQUIPO:
23INTEGRADO POR:
FIGUEROA ORELLANA, SANDRA YANIRA
85
GARCIA MENDOZA, ALBA ESTELA
87
HERNANDEZ HERNANDEZ, ERIC RICARDO
89
LUCERO AQUINO, MARIA CRISTINA
96
MARTINEZ SANTAMARA, KATYA JEANNETHE
99
VIERNES, 15 DE ABRIL DE 2011
CRITERIO DEL VALOR ESPERADOCAJAS VENDIDAS POR SEMANASEMANAS CON CADA VENTA
3804
3905
4006
4109
42011
43013
44012
45010
4608
4702
DATOS:Costo: 500
Precio: 600
Valor Recuperable: 505
1. METODO DE LA MAXIMA UTILIDAD ESPERADA.
UM= P C
PM= C-VR
UM= 600 500
PM= 500- 505
UM= 100
PM= -5 (perdida negativa, es Ganancia)CAJAS VENDIDAS POR SEMANASEMANAS
CON CADA VENTAPROBABILIDAD DE
CADA FRECUENCIAS
38040.05
39050.0625
40060.075
41090.1125
420110.1375
430130.1625
440120.15
450100.125
46080.1
47020.0025
TOTAL:801
1.331463725
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