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Whither Ukraine? 201
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Ukrainian crisis
Involves much more than the issues that set it o
Question o whether or not Ukraines current leausti!ed in dela"in# the si#nin# o an $ssociation$#reement with the %uro&ean Union now seems irrelevant.
'risis has served to cr"stalli(e the visceral dis#uman" Ukrainians or the re#ime under which the)een livin#.
$lso led to the eru&tion o &owerul latent tensioendemic to the Ukrainian &olit".
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$larmin#*
+ore alarmed than I have ever )een since I starteollowin# events in Ukraine in 2004.
'an,t see ha&&" wa" out.
-o&e &eaceul sta)le solution can somehow )e r
+ikhail /or)achev has su##ested ladimir utin
arack 3)ama should take a resolute ste& towahel&in# Ukraine return to the &ath o &eaceuldevelo&ment.5
6eems out o the 7uestion. Wh"?
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What ha&&ened in Ukraine?6tandard version
8anukov"ch &romised to si#n %U $ssociation $#reem 9ussia e:erted enormous &ressure to sto& him rom s
8anukov"ch then turned his )ack on the %U
$n#r" Ukrainians launched &eaceul demonstrations &rotest.
/overnment used violence demonstrations turned u 9ada &assed anti;democratic laws &rohi)itin# &eace
demonstrations.
/overnment violence a#ainst demonstrators continudisa&&earances )eatin#s torture.
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What ha&&ened? 'orrected ver
8anukov"ch since he )ecame resident hasconsistentl" )een stressin# %uro&e is Ukraines
+an" laws have )ein# &assed over the "ears )riUkraine into conormit" with %uro&ean norms.
8anukov"ch tried to #et %U a&&roval to &artici&a
'ustoms Union as well as %U. %U insisted Ukrainto choose one or the other
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What ha&&ened? 'orrected vie
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Co the math
Ukraine,s hard currenc" reserves ell rom DEF)nto around D20)n in =ovem)er.
elow three months, im&ort cover economists saneeded to ensure the sta)ilit" o the national cur
6hould have alread" )een shar& and e:tremel"
devaluation o at least 1FG )ut #overnment &rou& -r"vna. 'ountr" has efectivel" run out o calivin# on its credit cards
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Co the math
>acin# heav" )ond redem&tion schedule;;severaI+> loans last "ear H )illion maturin# this "ear.International ratin# a#encies down#radin# Ukrai
%U ofered onl" 1)n as reward or si#nin# Withcost o %U inte#ration hi#her &rices or 9ussian
hu#e un&aid #as )ills and reduced trade with 9urime +inister $(arov saidA JWe were told that Ucould count on 1)n. 1)n is nothin#. 3ne can sit is a &ittance to a )e##arJ
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I+> loan could tide Ukraine ove)ut
D1F)n stand;)" loan &ro#ram could have made si#nin# a#r&ossi)le.
ut I+> would not link its decision on the loans to the si#nin$ssociation $#reement
Ukraine had re&eatedl" lied to I+> in &revious &ro#ramme ne#otiated under imoshenko,s #overnment@ and has takeline.
Will not release an" mone" until #overnment raises domesttarifs and rees the currenc" e:chan#e re#ime and man" othin#s.
I+> mone" will )e hard to #et will come with a )i# &olitical would not have arrived or months.
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8anukov"chA %U cand" in &rettwra&&er5
8anukov"ch e:&lained &ost&onement
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+otivations o %U
wo aces o %UA -ardnosed &ra#matism and moralistic;id %astern artnershi& driven mainl" )" moralistic;ideolo#ic
)" anti;9ussian olish and 6wedish &ro&onents.
6ke&ticism in %U a)out Ukraine with its hu#e &ro)lems.$ssociation $#reement ver" va#ue a)out how the" will )
%U una)le to &rovide serious su&&ort in li#ht o its well;k
&ro)lems. %uro ske&ticism wides&read UP thinkin# a)ou Unsolved &ro)lems /reece Ireland 6&ain ortu#al ul#
9omania. What is %U ca&a)le o doin# in Ukraine?
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Cee&er 7uestions a)out %Umotivation
Wh" didnt %U &erceive these &ro)lems and when Ukleaders &ointed them out wh" did %U and U6
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%:&lanation o %U and U6 )ehav
6tu&idit" insensitivit"? I+> and /ermans
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Ideolo#ical cons&irac"?
%U and U6 drivers o &roect dont like 8anukov"ch ar9ussian and anti;'ustoms Union. ackin# cou& detaUkraine either to hel& the Ukrainian &eo&le or econo#eo&olitical motivations.
lanners surel" must have reali(ed version o $ssocia$#reement &resented no;win situation to Ukrainian le
%:&ected !erce o&&osition either i 8anukov"ch si#nedlater is he did =3 si#n.
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%vidence o cons&irac"
Wh" the an#er and im&atience re#ardin# dela"in# thsi#nin#?
In normal health" democrac" it is normal or leadersmake such ud#ments and or the voters to ud#e thud#ments at ne:t election.
Under normal re#ime such action would )e de)ated
o&&osition in the le#islatureBo&&osition would criticiaction in the media and in travellin# around the coun
Wouldnt democratic de)ate o &ros and cons o $sso)e health"? +a")e even a reerendum in several "eaas &lanned in UP
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Wh" the hurr"? Was it all &lannand or#ani(ed?
residential election onl" one "ear awa". Would it make sense or national de)ate to )e &art electioncam&ai#n? I have not heard a sin#le ar#ument as timmediate si#nature is im&ortant. Wh" the hurr"?
=ormall" demonstrations 7uickl" dissi&ate i noleadershi&.
Lo#isticsA ents ree ood securit" s"stem take;ov#overnment )uildin#s )" a&&arentl" trained &aram
-ow could it )e s&ontaneous and or#ani(ed so 7uic
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Uni!ed &osition o %U U6 andUkrainian o&&osition
'alls or )oth demonstrators and #overnment to rerom violence )ut concretel" measures onl" aimed#overnment.
'alls or /overnment to make concessions andcom&romises. /overnment has made one concessanother )ut o&&osition a)solutel" un"ieldin# calli
concession mani&ulation.
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ut isnt 8anukov"ch res&onsi)lthe mess?
'ritics alle#e )illions stolen )" 8anukov"ch amil" ariends im&l"in# this e:&lains the D1F )illion #a&Binecient mana#ement ailure to ado&t needed re
ro)lems have &la#ued Ukraine since inde&endenccritici(ed earlier 8anukov"ch saidA Look this is thewe #ot rom our M3ran#e 9evolutionN &redecessors.
Little had chan#ed under 3ran#e re#ime. 6ame coelite same s"stem same ineciencies. 6ituationworsened due to weakness &aral"sis and ine:&eri3ran#e leaders.
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8anukov"chs main &ro)lemAWeakness
hinness o 8anukov"ch s )ase o le#itimac". olitical &olari(ation o UkraineA %ast and West.
3ran#e 9evolution reSected )reakdown o elite coon s"stem )ased on contract )etween nationalists6oviet a&&aratchiki.
=ationalists a#ree not to touch &ower o entrench6oviet )ureaucratic elite i it would su&&ort inde&e
$s Ukrainians lost ear and as &u)lic consciousnedevelo&ed an#er at s"stem #rew.
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8anukov"ch cornered )" ownsu&&ort )ase and Western Ukra
nationalism
Wait a minute* ut are not 8anukov"ch and his su&&oone and the same corru&t criminal 6oviet;re#ime;)aelite?
9eal undamental reorm almost alwa"s )rou#ht a)os"stem;insiders. 3utsiders almost alwa"s destro"ed deeated )" s"stem.
L"ndon RohnsonA 9o)ert 'aro )io#ra&h"A 'aro &ortra"Rohnson as corru&t immoral &ower;hun#r" #enerall"&erson.
8et Rohnson accordin# to 'aro achieved more or $mthan an" other resident in $merican histor".
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6oviet elite and reorm
hink a)out 8anukov"ch and his )ack#round. Coes he want to #o down in histor" as a tool o the
oli#archs or as the statesman who rescued Ukraine
/or)achevA almost all e:&erts )elieved /or)achev interest in reorm. Wh" should he? ower &rivile#e7uivalent o wealth
$sked when he decided to launch erestroika /or)talk a)out his walk in the #arden with 6hevardnad(%ver"thin# is rotten. We cant #o on livin# like this
8et he worked within the s"stem and eno"ed &ow&rivile#e and e7uivalent o wealth
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ro)lem o Western Ukrainiannationalism
Ukraines oundin# Sawed. =ationalist;a&&aratchik oundin# did not inte#rate the
Ukrainian 6oviet 6ocialist 9e&u)lic esta)lished )" Leniand Phrushchevs at the time meanin#less #it o 'rim=ever meant to )e sel;#overnin# &olit".
Inclusion o Western &rovinces which had never )een
9ussia which unlike the 'enter %ast and 6outh had aethnicall";)ased sense o nation mi#ht have doomed &o Ukrainian unit".
-atred and contem&t o 8anukov"ch )ound u& with #econtem&t or the culture o 9ussianT6oviet Ukraine
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6u&&ort or ri#ht;win# nationali&art" 6vo)oda
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+ass &rotests and sei(ures o#overnment )uildin#
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9ussian aims
$t 9ussia;%U 6ummit utin su##ested ree trade)etween %U and the 'ustoms UnionBnot new id
$im o 'ustoms Union never e:clusive never ascom&etitor with %U.
$imA or#ani(e %urasian s&ace &rior to inte#ration
%U +aor im&lications or two o 9ussia,s most im&o
orei#n &olic" &riorities.
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>irst &riorit"A achieve e7ual statwith West in international &olitic
utin strate#ic #oal since 2000B9ussia should )considered e7ual to its transatlantic &artners.
Premlin views West as too &rone to meddlin# in internal afairs o&enl" tr"in# to st"mie 9ussia,s in the 'I6 states workin# a#ainst 9ussia,s trade economic interests.
6ee this ha&&enin# )ecause durin# !rst decade the all o the 6oviet Union 9ussia acce&ted role
unior &artner in relations with West until it.
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6econd &riorit"A ecome maor&la"er
>or 9ussia to )ecome one o the maor &la"ers intoda",s multi&olar world throu#h a close allianceormer 6oviet states.
9ussia investin# hu#e &olitical and economic ca&)uildin# the %urasian Union;;re#ards an" dela"s alread" a&&roved schedule o inte#ration asunacce&ta)le.
9ussian vision or the 9ussian;led %urasian %conUnion to )ecome one o the si: to ei#ht maor ac#lo)al afairs.
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Im&lications o these strate#ic a
'onSicts )etween 9ussia and the West ma" arise even serio
conSicts.
+ain 7uestion is whether 9ussia aims are undamentall" in coWestern interests.
he" are not. Can#ers inherent in alienatin# 9ussia o makinadversar" are ar #reater.
otential or %U and U6 coo&eration with 9ussia not ade7uatee:&loited.
$ttitudes towards 9ussia more anchored in &s"cholo#" than rthreats.
O times as man" Ukrainian see U.6. as #reatest threat to worthan see 9ussia as #reatest threat to world &eace.
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What should U.6. orei#n &olic" likeA =eed or a rethink asic ramework ater WWIIA i&olar world conronta
two ideolo#ical and militar" adversaries enemies riv
U.6. orei#n &olic" esta)lishment mindset ormed witramework.
$lwa"s dicult to )reak out o such esta)lished rameven in advanced natural sciences. =ewtons theor"
e:&lained so much. Who needs %insteins? h"sics a!nished.
Criver o chan#e needed. VXYXZ [\]^Z_`Z resul#rowin# consensus with 6oviet orei#n &olic" elite thaorei#n &olic" was )ad or 6oviet Union.
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3ld ramework new realit"
>ailure o 9ussian orei#n &olic" in 1bb0s drove 9usorei#n &olic" esta)lishment to develo& alternative
What a)out U.6. orei#n &olic"? We won 'old War.Whatever we were doin# was ri#ht so wh" chan#e
$)stract reco#nition 9ussia was no lon#er enem" na driver.
Institutional ramework chan#ed little ramework aha)its o thou#ht did not chan#e undamentall".
9ussian )ehavior seen throu#h lens o e:istin# ramand thou#ht ha)its.
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$n" real conSicts o U.6. and9ussian interests? I dont think so. Co "ou see an"?
-uman ri#hts violations Sawed democrac"? Wh" 9ussis )" ar not as )ad as man" U.6. allies?
Cisa#reements on orei#n &olic" issues? =ot ha)itual ins"stem.
U.6. not accustomed to dealin# with states havin# trul"inde&endent orei#n &oliciesBnot takin# or #ranted rain which U6 is he#emon.
$s utin has &ut it U.6. does not want allies it wants va3 course he e:a##erates inuriatin# %sta)lishment $m)ut contains #erm o truth.
rior to &ost;WWII )i&olar s"stem conSictin# interests
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