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Simposio Migraciones Climáticas
Sesión 4: El reto socialMadrid, 22 November 2016
Dr Kees van der GeestUnited Nations University, Bonn
Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Quienes somos: UNU-EHS/EMSVA• Section: Environmental Migration, Social Vulnerability and
Adaptation (EMSVA), established by Dr Koko Warner• Colleagues: Tamer Afifi, Christina Rademacher-Schultz, Robert
Oakes, Cosmin Corendea• Focus : Relationship between environmental change & human
mobility• Increasingly, the focus is on climate change• Pioneers in this field:• EACH-FOR (2007-2009): 23 case studies (Global)• Rainfalls (2010-2012): 8 case studies (Global)• PCCM (2013-2016): 3 case studies (Pacific region)• MECLEP (2014-2016): 6 case studies (Global)
• And in the field of Loss and Damage (empirical research in 12 countries since 2012)
Advisory Committee Meeting, Bonn, Germany, 24-25 September, 2008
Complex problems require mixed method research and the knowledge and
skills of different disciplines
EACH-FOR: Environmental Change & Forced Migration Scenarios (EU-FP6)
Tajikistan
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Egypt
Turkey
Mozambique
Vietnam
Morocco
Ghana
Senegal
Niger
Dominican Republic, Haiti
Mexico
Ecuador
Argentina
Russia
China
Tuvalu
Bangladesh
Spain
The Balkans
WesternSahara
Tajikistan
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Egypt
Turkey
Mozambique
Vietnam
Morocco
Ghana
Senegal
Niger
Dominican Republic, Haiti
Mexico
Ecuador
Argentina
Russia
China
Tuvalu
Bangladesh
Spain
The Balkans
WesternSahara
“Where the rain falls” - with CARE International
Pacif
ic Cl
imat
e Ch
ange
and
Mig
ratio
n (P
CCM
)
MECLEP: Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Evidence for Policy
Changing questions: •EACH-FOR: • Exploratory question: Is there a relation between
environmental change and human mobility?
• “Where the rain falls”: • “Under which conditions do people use migration as a
response to climate stressors?”
•PCCM + MECCLEP• How to optimize migration outcomes?
Environment Migration
EnvironmentDevelopment;
Livelihoods;Food security;
Poverty
Migration
EACH-FOR
Foresight report (2011)
Resilience to climatic stressors Vulnerability to climatic stressors
Migration improves HH
resilience
Migration used to survive, but not
flourish
Migration erosive coping strategy
Migration not an option: trapped
populations• Economy: poor• Adaptation options:
access to livelihoods options &assets (social, economic, political), • Education: Children have
3-5 years more education than parents•Migrant: early 20s, single;
temporal migration• Remittances: education,
livelihood diversification, health
• Economy: chronically food insecure, landless, Female -headed HH
• Adaptation options: insufficient assets to adapt locally or through migration
• Education:• Migrant: not feasible• Remittances: none.
Abandoned / trapped populations
• Economy: landless• Adaptation options: few
adaptation options in situ, inability to diversify
• Education: All HH members have low or no education / skill levels
• Migrant: HH Head, mid 40s, migration in hunger season
• Remittances: Partial success in obtaining food or money to buy food
• Economy: land scarce• Adaptation options: less
access to assets & institutions for support• Education: Children have
same education level as parents•Migrant: HH Head, mid
40s, migration in hunger season• Remittances: Success in
obtaining food or money to buy food
Global results: 4 household profiles
Trapped populations: People who are not able to migrate from places in which they are vulnerable to environmental stressors because they lack the means to move or because there are no suitable migration destinations (Foresight, 2011).
Environmental hazards already impacting people
Environment already triggering migration
Different patterns of migration 2005-2015
Kiribati Tuvalu
International Internal Trapped No movement
Nauru
¿Dónde se están produciendo las mayores migraciones climáticas?
• En muchos sitios donde… • … Rain-fed agriculture• … Close to subsistence• … Low livelihood diversification• … Access to migration opportunities (if not: trapped)
• En pocos sitios donde…• … Impactos de cambio climático ya han hecho lugares
“no-habitables”
¿A qué nos enfrentamos desde el punto de vista social en los países de origen?• Cambios y extremos climáticos son una realidad• Amenaza los fuentes de comida y ingresos y la seguridad de
mucha gente, sobre todo los mas pobres•Muchas veces se puede adaptar un situ sin migrarse, pero a
veces migración es la única opción y frecuentemente es una buena opción.• Tambien existen casos en que gente debería migrar pero no
puede (trapped populations)
ContinuumForcedDisplacementLast resortLoss and damage
VoluntaryMigrationPro-active
Adaptation
• Enable adaptive migration which improves the situation of migrants and their families; Avoid forced migration that disrupts and leaves people worse’off.• Act in time! Pro-active migration versus distress migration• The power of language: Assisted migration versus Resettlement
Last thought
When migration is a choice, people do not feel the losses as much as when they are forced to move.
THANK YOU!
Contact: [email protected]
