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7/26/2019 Apuntes Macro
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UNIVERSIDAD MICHOACANA DE SAN
NICOLAS DE HIDALGO
FACULTAD DE ECONOMA
APUNTES DE MACROECONOMA
GABRIEL TAPIA TOVAR
MORELIA, MICH. 21 DE MARZO DE 20007
1
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INDICE
PRESENTACIONI. INTRODUCCION......
2.LOS POSTULADOS DE LA ECONOMIACLASICA..OBJECIONES DE KEYNES A LA TEORIA CLSICA.LA DEPRESION DE 1929.....LA BOLSA DE VALORES UNA CONSIDERACION BSICA.....LA CRISIS DE 1929 Y EL SURGIMIENTO DEL NEW DEAL.. ...3.EL PRINCIPIO DE LA DEMANDA EFECTIVA
8.II. LA PROPENSION AL
CONSUMO.. ... LA FUNCION DECONSUMO... ..89.FACTORES OBJETIVOS Y SUBJETIVOS DE LA FUNCIONCONSUMO.....1!.EL MULTIPLICADOR DE LA INVERSION..
III. EL INCENTIVO PARA INVERTIR...LA EFICACIA MARGINAL DELCAPITAL...............................................................LAS E"PECTATIVAS...EL INTERES Y EL DINERO.LA PREFERENCIA DE LI#UIDE$ .....COMPARACION DE LAS TEORIAS CLASICAY KEYNESIANA DE LA TASA DE INTERES...
IV. SALARIOS Y PRECIOS.....EL PAPEL DE LOS SALARIOS NOMINALES..EL DINERO LOS PRECIOS..
BIBLIOGRAFIA
2
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PRESENTACION
E%&'% ()*+&,% &-,+,+ '/' '0,&-' (45, ( 5'% ,%&*-(+&,% 5'%)*+&'% /(% ,%&(('% , 5( &,'46( 7,+,%-(+( (%6 '/' )4')'4-'+(45,%,5,/,+&'% *, 5,% ),4/-&(+ '+',4 5( -+:5*,+-( *, ;( &,+-' J';+ M(+(4K,+,% ,+ ,5 (/)' ,'+
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Joh M!"!#$ %&"&' 1(()*1+- $& /o C!34#$5&, I56!#!8
D&3!$! &9&:;!%-'% ,% ,-4 5'% '+&-+*('4,% , R-(4'J';+ S&*(4& M-55 A5:4, M(4%;(55 5 P-'*.
8 I$:!$o#&' $& %&"&'
=> C?I => @#o$:o !:o!6 o9!8
C ,/(+( , 0-,+,%
I ,/(+( , -+%*/'%
2 '+--
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II. EL MULTIPLICADOR
EJAMPLO EMPRESARIO TIENE 100 MILLONESGASTO7 Y AORRO 2
)'4 5' &(+&' &,+,/'% 1 5'% +*,'% ,/)4,%(4-'% (%&(+ ,5 , S
.2
T,+,/'% 1 Q . 2 ETC. 231.2
%- , .2 ETC C2 C3 C !!P'4 5' &(+&' *+( -+,4%-
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S
i i
S = Y - C
Y %- ---/'% )'4 Y
Y X C S PROPENSION MARGINAL AL AORRO
Y
POR LO TANTO K I /
K 1 X .!2 NOS DA UN MULTIPLICADOR DE
EL EUILIBRIO
EN EL MERCADO REAL Y C Q I K I
I C
7
K = I
I - C Y
K = Y X Y
Y C
Y Y
TENEMOS LA PROPENSION
EN EL EJEMPLO LA PROPENSION
MARGINAL AL AORRO ES DE !.2
ES DECIR COMO UNIDADDE INVERSION AUMENTA VESES EL INGRESO
=EJEMPLO
I 1!!K 1 X !.2K K 3!!
Y 3!!3!! Q 1!! !!
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Y
EN EL MERCADO MONETARIO
MV PY
NOS DICE #UE LA CANTIDAD DE DINERO MULTIPLICADA POR SUVELOCIDAD ES IGUAL AL INGRESO MONETARIO
P,4' '/' %, )5(+&,( 5( ':,4&( ,% ,/(+( , -+,4' 5( -*(5(
M X P Y X V
S- M X P 3ES 5( ':,4&( /'+,&(4-( %- / X I X V Y
DEMANDA DE DINERO
M > %= ? 8
D,/(+( , -+,4' ,% -*(5H
( ( 5( %*/( , ,/(+( , -+,4' )(4( &4(+%(-'+,% KY0 ,/(+(% )(4( :-+,% ,%),*5(&-'% ( )4,:,4,+-( )'4 5( 5-*-,? -
L'% &4(0(('4,% +' (,)&(+ 4,*-
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TEORIA NEOCLASICA
- E5 %(5(4-' 4,(5 ,% P/L- C'/' ;( ,%,/)5,' )(4' '5*+&(4-' ;*,5( :5''% - E*-5-04-'
- B((4 5'% %(5(4-'%- K,+,% ,5 %(5(4-' ,% /'+,&(4-'- E5 %(5(4-' ,%&( ,&,4/-+(' )'4 5( ,/(+( ,:,&-( +' )'4 '+&4(&(4
'04,4'% ,+&4, '04,4'% )(&4'+,%.
9
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Co'3oC8
I;'I8
P4'),+%-'+ (5'+%*/-4
V'5*/,+ , 5(
4,+&(
T-)' , -+&,4,%-
E:-(-( /(4-+(5,5 ()-&(5
P4,--'+ ,0,+,:--'%
C'%&' ,4,)'%--'+ ')4,-' , ':,4&(, 5'% , K
T,'46( ,5 ,/)5,' N, 5( 4,+&( Y , 5(,/(+( ,:,&-( D
P4'),+%-%-(C*(+' C X Y 1 ,% ,-4C*(+' C E5 '+%*/' (*/,+&' '+ 5(4,+&( ),4' /,+'%)4')'4-'+(5
CY
K ,% %-,/)4, *, 5(
*+-( U+ ,+ 5( I '(%-'+(
*+ /5&-)5' , 5(4,+&(.
-/)5-( ,5 ,/)5,' ,5-+,4' '/' ,)'%-&', (5'4.
P*,, %,4 4,*5(')'4 5( (*&'4-(/'+,&(4-(
-+,%&(05,Z,+'+&4(+' -+:5*-')'4 ,5 /,4(' ,(5'4,% '+:-(+?('/,4-(5 ,&.
:5*&*(+&, ,+ 5'%-5'% ( L.P .,%-,+(
E% %-,/)4, /,+'4*, 5( *+-(
10
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INTRODUCCION 2 !o'8
IDEAS FUNDAMENTALES&,4 ,+,4(5 , 5( T,'46( D, K,+,%.
2 E5 )(),5 ,5 -+,4'.
3 L( 4,5(-%-'% %, '*)(+ , 5( ,/)4,%( ,5 -+--*'.
K,+,%H '5/,+,% &'&(5,% , ,/)5,' , 4,+&( , ':,4&( &'&(5 ,
-+,4%-
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2( K,+,% ,+ %* '04( T.G.O.I.D. 5, -' -/)'4&(+-( (5 -+,4' ,+ 5(
,&,4/-+(-+ ,+ (0%'5*&'.
P'4 &(+&' *+ , - &-,+, ( 4,*-4 5( D,/(+( E:,&-(
)'%-05,/,+&, ( '4--+(4 PARO.
.1 L( I+,4%-
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L'% )'04,% &-,+,+ &(+ )'( 4,+&( *, 5( ()(-( , '+%*/'
,%&( 4,%&4-+-( ( 5-/-&,% /* ,%&4,;'%
P'4 &(+&' ;( *+ ,@,%' , )'&,+-(5 )'4 ,+-/( , 5(% +,,%-(,% )(4(
)4'*-4 0-,+,% , '+%*/'. E5 ,@,%' %- ;( , *&-5-?(4%, %,4> ,+ (%'% *, +'
%, ;(+ , '+%*/-4 ;(0-&*(5/,+&,H
\ E% ,-4 INVERSIONH +*,(% :(04-(%
N*,(% (%(% :,44'(44-5,% ,&.
P'4 &(+&' L( D-%&-+-
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RESUMEN
TEORIA GENERAL \ E% *+( T,'46( G,+,4(5 *, (:,&( ( &''% 5'% +-,5,%
, ,/)5,'.
\ E% *+( T,'46( , *+( E'+'/6( /'+,&(4-( ,+ ,5 %,+&-' *, ,5 ]
-+,4' ,% *+( :'4/( -/)'4&(+&, ,+ *, %, (*/*5( 4-*,?(.
E5 -+&,4% ,% 5( :'4/( *, %, )(( )'4 +' (&,%'4(4 4-*,?(.
\ E% *+( T,'46( ,+ *, 5(% :5*&*(-'+,% ,+ ,5 '5*/,+ , -+,4%-&,4 :5*&*(+&, , -+-,4&' , 5(% )4,-%-'+,% 4,%),&' ( 5'% 4,+-/-,+&'%
:*&*4'% , 0-,+,% , ()-&(5 , 5'% &4/-+'% ,+ *, %, )*,( )4,%&(4 -+,4' ,
-+&,4%.
14
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CAPITULO II %&"&'
LOS POSTULADOS DE LA ECONOMIA CLASICA
1 K,+,% *%( ,5 '+,)&' , =E'+'/-%&(% C5>%-'% ( 5'% '+&-+*('4,%
, R-(4' -+5*,+' ( J. S. M-55 A. M(4%;(55 A.C. P-'*.
2 S, 5, ;( 4-&-(' /*;' )'4 *&-5-?(4 ,%&( ,@)4,%-%-( )'4 2 4(?'+,%H
- L( )4-/,4( &-,+, 4,5(-
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0(( ,+ 5'% W ,0-' ( *+ (5?( , 5'% )4,-'% ),4/(+,-,+' -*(5,% 5'%
%(5(4-'% +'/-+(5,% W +' )4'*, )'4 4,5( ,+,4(5 *+( -%/-+*-+ %-+
'*)(-%-( *,(46(
,@)4,%(( '/' %-*,H
( L( T,'46( =E'+%-( ,%&' 0(%(' ,+ ,5 %*)*,%&' ,5
,/)5,' &'&(5 ,5 &4(0(' ,/>% :(&'4,% , 5( )4'*-
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5'% )4,-'% ,5 %(5(4-' *, :-( 5'% )4,-'% ,% ,5 /,(+-%/'
)5(+-:-('4.
: L( (,)&(-%-( /,-(+&, ,5 %*)*,%&' , *, 5( ':,4&( 4,( %*
)4')-( ,/(+( L, , S( L(% /,4(+6(% %'5' )(4(
'/)4(45(% )'4 '&4(%. S'5' )(4( '+%*/-4.
S- 4,%*5&(+ ,@,%'% , )4'*-
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( P(4' V'5*+&(4-' *(+' 5'% &4(0(('4,% )'&,+-(5,% +' *-,4,+
(,)&(4 %(5(4-'% 5-,4(/,+&, -+:,4-'4,% ( 5'% %(5(4-'% '44-,+&,%H
0 E5 )(4' )'4 F4--
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,+*,+&4(% 5-0,4&( )(4( ,%,+,4 ;(%&( %*% +-,5,% ,
'/),&,+-(%.
\ E5 '/)'4&(/-,+&' %-+-(5 /'+')'56%&-' %*% (/-'% %'+ 5'%
4,%)'+%(05,% ,5 )(4'.
L'% %-+-(&'%
L'% %,*4'% , ,%,/)5,'
S*0%--'% ( &4(0(('4,%
C'+,+-'% , +' (,)&(4 %(5(4-'% ( ,5 4(?'+(05,.
-- E+ '+--'+,% , C'/),&,+-( ),4:,&( 5'% %(5(4-'% ,%-,+,+ )'4
,0(' 5( )4,%-%-'%H L( -,( , *, ,5 )(4' ,%()(4,, %-
5'% '04,4'% (,)&(+ &-)'% , %(5(4-'% %*:--,+&,/,+&, 0('%.
S'+ ,%&'%:,+
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2 R,;(?(0( ,5 %*)*,%&' , *, ,5 /,4(' , &4(0(' ,% %-,/)4,
/,4(' , ,+,'4,% ,+ ,5 *, )*,, ,+,4%, ,5 &4(0(' %- 5'%
'04,4'% *-,4,+ (,)&(4 4,*-'+,% , %(5(4-'%.
3 K,+,% '0,&''+ 4,%),&' ( ,5 '/,+&(4-' , A.C. P-'* , *, 5'%
%(5(4-'% :5,@-05,% 4,/,-(+ ,5 )(4'Z 2 (%),&'%H
( P4>&-'
0 T,&-(.
0 L( %'5*-%-'% +' ,%(+%( ,+ ,5 %(5(4-' 46-' ( 5(0((. K,+,% %'%&-,+, *, ,5 '5*/,+ , ,/)5,' ,%&( ,&,4/-+(' )'4 5( D.E.
+' )'4 '+&4(&'% ,+&4, '04,4'% )(&4'+,%.
L( ,@)5-(-
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K,+,% ,6( *, ,5 4(+ ,:,&' , 5( =T C ,% %* (5,(/-,+&' , 5(%
'+--'+,% ,5 /*+' ()-&(5-%&( '+&,/)'4>+,' ' 5( T C ,% /(%
0-,+ , *+( ,'+'/6( %'-(5-%&(.
E+ 5(% ,'+'/6(% ()-&(5-%&(% )4,'/-+( ,5 )(4' ,@&,+%' 5'% -5'%
,'+% 0(' *, %, &4(*,4( ,5 +-,5 , c ,55' +' %, &4(*6( ,+ *+ /('4
+-,5 , ,/)5,'.
2 K,+,% ( 4,%)*,%&( (5 )4'05,/( , %- %*:--,+&, *&-5-?(-%&-(% 4,%),&' (5 )4,-' ,
5( :5,@-0-5-( , 5'% )4,-'%.
K,+,% -+(5-( 5( 5
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L( ,/(+( , &4(0(' +' )*,, %,4 ,+:'(( %'5' ,+ &4/-+'% ,5 c
4,(5. L( (6( , 5'% c *4(+&, ,5 ),4-'' , 4-%-% +' %, &4(*' ,+
4,-/-,+&' , 5( ,/(+( , &4(0('.
P(4( K,+,% ,5 '+%*/' I )'4 5( 4,*5(-+ /*;'% ,%&6/*5'% ),4' ddddddddd ( %* :'4/( 5-*-(.
T(4,(H ;(,4 *+ 4,%*/,+ %'04, X %,-
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TAREA< ELLOS
I. LA DEPRESION DE 1+2+
II. LA BOLSA DE VALORES UNA CONSIDERACION BASICA
1 L( 0'5%( , (5'4,%. I+%&-&*-
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0 M,4('% %,*+(4-'% ' , +,'-(-&-5.
EN FUNCION DE LA VARIABILIDAD DE LA RENTA #UE GENERAN
SE DIVIDEN EN 2 CATEGORIASH
24
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T-)'% , &6&*5'%H
( , 4,+&( :-(
0 , 4,+&( (4-(05,
( D, 4,+&( :-(. (5'4,% /'0-5-(4-'% *, 4,)4,%,+&(+ *+( )(4&, , *+
)4%&(/' (5 ,%&(' ' ,/)4,%( )4-(( ' ),4%'+(
O&4( +,,%-( , )4%&(/' )(4( -+,4&-4 ( ( 5( B'5%( --, ,5 /'+&' ,+
)(4&,% ),*,(% , &6&*5'% 5(% &4(&( .
C(( *+( , 5(% ),4%'+(% , -,4&( 5(%, , &6&*5'% %, '+-,4&, ,+
(4,,'4 ,+ 5( )(4&, )4')'4-'+(5.
E5 (4,,'4 &,+4> ,4,;' ( 4,-0-4 *+ ,&,4/-+(' -+&,4% )'4 %*
)4%&(/' :-(' ,%, ,5 /'/,+&' , 5( ,/-%-
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L'% (-'+-%&(% &-,+,+H
D,4,;'% E' \ ),4,)-@-/' ' /6+-/' *, ,%,(+
+,'-(4. S, ,)'%-&(+ ,+ *+( (( , 5( 0'5%( , (5'4,% *+ ,/)5,('5'% '+:4'+&(Z )4',-,+' ( (5*5(4 ,5 )4,-' (5 *, %, 4,( *+ /('4
26
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'5*/,+ , '+&4(&(- 1@!!X1!! ]
9TIPOS DE LI#UIDACIhN AL INSTANTE DE LA CONTRATACIhN.
( L-*-(-
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L'% 6+-,% ':4,,+ *+ -+-('4 ,5 4(' , '+:-(+?( ,+ ,5 :*&*4' , 5(
,'+'/6( ,% *+ &,4/ 5*(4 %-+ %* '5(0'4(-
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J*,,% +,4' 2 , '&*04, 1929 N,c Y'47.
M,4(' , ()-&(5,% ,+ 1933 ,,% /(% *, ,+ 1929.
M>@-/' ,5 ('%&' , 1929 ,%)*% 4*,5.
C-,44, ,/)4,%(% 4,*-
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CAPAT IIIEL PRINCIPIO DE LA DEMANDA EFECTIVA
\ COSTOS
C 1 Q 2 I+4,%' T'&(5
E5 -+4,%' 5'0(5 \ )4'*&'
L( O:,4&( G5'0(5 \ ,),+, ,@),&(&-(%
E/)5,'$ l N O:,4&(
D : N D,/(+(
\ E5 '5*/,+ , '*)(-
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\ D!$! 6! P#o@&' ! Co'3# !6 ;&6 $& &64#o $& 6! o:@!: ,5 +*/,4' , 0-,+,% , K )(4( 5(% *, ,5
)4,-' , ,/(+( ,@,,4> (5 )4,-' , ':,4&( /('4 ,5 4-&/' , 5( -+,4%- 5*4(&-( ,+ &(+&' *, ,5 )4,-' , ':,4&( ' '%&,
),4/(+,?( )'4 ,0(' ,5 )4,-' , ,/(+(.
Cada en la +i, 8 9Ibs3 +precio de demanda : precio de oferta,
8 por lo tanto 9I y !'3 : +i, lucrativo
E5 &-)' , - (%6 '/' 5( EMK &-,+,+ *, '+',4%, (+&,% , ,&,4/-+(4%,
'5*/,+ , I
( T(+&' ,5 - (%6 '/' 5( EMK %, ,&,4/-+(+ '+ -+,),+,+-( *+'
,5 '&4'.
1 L'% 4,+-/-,+&'% ,%),4('%
L( EMK
2 P4,-' , ':,4&(
C'%&, , 4,)'%--
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1 5( )4,:,4,+-( )'4
5( 5-*-,?
L( -
2 5( M (+&-( , -+,4'
0 M-,+&4(% 5( EMK - '+&-+*(4> 5( I
D(' *, ,5 ,/)5,' NO )*,, (*/,+&(4 %-+ `I ),4/(+,-,+'
'+%&(+&, 5( )4'),+%-
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P4,-' ,
D,/(+(
C#X-
P4,-' ,
O:,4&(
P
R,+-/-,+&'
A+*(5
#
EMK
4/#XP
-
EFECTO
SOBRE LA
INDUCCION
A INVERTIT
2!!!
2!!!
2!!!!
2!!!
2!!!!
2!!!
1!!!
1!!!
1!!!
N,*&4(5
F('4(05,
A,4%(
60
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\ L(% EMK , &'(% 5(% ,%),-,% , 0-,+,% , K *4(+&, *+ ),4-'' ,
&-,/)' 4,)4,%,+&(+ 5( *4( , 5( EMK ' '+%*/' , 5( D,/(+( , I
C*(+&' /('4 %,( 5( I )'4
*+-(
, &-,/)' /(% ,%,+,4> 5( EMK
( *, '/' ` , 5( ,/(+( ,
0-,+,% , I %*% P %*0,+ 5( &(%(
,%),4(( , 0,+,:--'% -%/-+*-4>.
N'&(H )( 131 , K,+,%C(0, ;(,4 +'&(4 *, 5( ,@),&(&-( ( *+( (6( , 5( - :*&*4( &,+4> )'4 ,:,&' ( ;(,4 (,4 5( EMK )*,%
4,%*5&(4> *, ,5 ,*-)'/ (&*(5 '/),&-4> '+ ,5 +*,' ,*-)' ( *+ 4,+-/-,+&' /,+'4 5' *(5 )*,, &,+,4 *+ ),*,' ,:,&'
,)4,%-'.
L( )'%--
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C*4( 4,5(&-( ,5>%&-( , 5( EMK ' *4(
, 5( D,/(+( , I.
C*(+&' /(% ,5>%&-( ,% 5( *4(
, 5( EMK /('4 %,4> ,5 `I ,+
4,%)*,%&( ( *+ a - -,,4%(
E+ 4,(5-( )'4 5( ,@),4-,+-( 5( *4( , 5( EMK &-,+, ( %,4 />% 0-,+I+,5>%&-( *, ,5>%&-(. P'4 5' &(+&' 5'%H
\ `a - %'5' &-,+,+ *+ 5-,4( -+:5*,+-( %'04, 5( +*,( I.
M(% -/)'4&(+&, *, ( - %'+ 5(% F!' D3:!' $& C#&:3&o Lo'
P#o5#&'o' T::o' *, ,5,(+ 5( *4( , 5( EMK. C*(+' ,%&( :*,4?(%
-+>/-(% %, ,0-5-&(+ -%/-+*, 5( I '4--+( )(4'.
6
6
5
II CURVA RELAT INELASTICA
62
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1 E/)4,%(4-' ,*(% , '0&,+,4
' 5'% 4,+-/-,+&'%
P4,%&(4-' ,%),4('%
'%&' %'-(5 4,(5.=)*,, &,+,4
'+&4(&,+,+-(% *, %, )4'/,-(+
D, 4,*),4(4 %* -+,4'
, /(+,4( '5*+&(4-( '
T-)'% , 4-,%'% 2 R-,%' -+'5*+&(4-(
*, (:,&(+ ,5 )4,%&(/-%&( R-,%' *(+' %, %,)(4(+
'5*/,+ , 5( I )4,%&(/-%&(% )4,%&(4-'
E@,)&' *(+' %, ,% /*
4-' )'' 4-,%'.
N'&(H ,+ ,5 (*, ,5 4-,%' ,+&4, )4,%&(/-%&( )4,%&(&(4-' )*,, %,4 -/)4*,+&,/,+&, 0('.
*(+' %, %,)(4(+ ,5 )4,%&(/-%&( ,5 )4,%&(&(4-'.,@,)&' *(+' %, ,% /* 4-' ;( )''
4-,%'.
3 C(/0-'% ,+
,5 )(&4
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N'&(. LA E"PECTATIVA DEL FUTURO INFLUYE PRINCIPALMENTE SOBRE
EL PRESENTE )4-+-)(5/,+&, )'4 5( *4( , 5( EMK (%, 5( ,5(%&--(
EL FUTURO ESTA LIGADO CON EL PRESENTE.
P4,*+&(%H
1 E+ 0(%, ( K,+,% '/' %, )*,, ,@)5-(4 5( (6(
,5 /,4(' -+&,4+'.
2 Y -( %- 5( (6( ,5 /,4(' -+&,4+' ,% -*(5 ( 5(
D,/(+( E:,&-( *, )5(+&,' K,+,% )'4*, %-
)'4*, +'
\.
64
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LAS E"PECTATIVAS
C()12
1 E5 '5*/,+ ,5 ,/)5,' ,),+,H
1 L( )4'),+%-
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2 P'4 5' &(+&' ,% -/)'4&(+&, ,%&*-(4 5'% (/0-'% , 5'% 4,+-/-,+&'%
)4,-%&'%.
L'% 4,+-/-,+&'% )4,-%&'% *, ,%),4( '0&,+,4 ,5 -+,4%'4 %'+
/>% *, ,@),&(&-(% )'4 )(4&, , 5.
3 E5 -+,4%'4 ,%),4( %,4 %'4)4,+-' :('4(05, ' ,%:('4(05, )'4*, 5 +'
)*,, )4,,,4 '+ ,4&,?( /(&,/>&-(/,+&,*, 5'% ('+&,-/-,+&'% %, (+
*, 5 )4, '/' /(% :('4(05,%.
A%6 )*,% 5(% ,%--'+,% , -+,4&-4 ,%&>+ 4,-(% )'4 5(% E"PECTATIVAS DE
RENDIMIENTO +' )'4 5'% 4,+-/-,+&'% ,:,&-'%.
R,+-/-,+&'% )4,-%&'%. ,% 5' *, ,5 ,/)4,%(4-' ,%),4( '0&,+,4 , ,+,4
5( )4'*-
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E+ ,5 L(4' P5(?' (:,&(+ 5'% )4'*&'% , 5(% ,+&(% *, *+
,/)4,%(4-' ,%),4( '0&,+,4 (5 `a` ,5 &(/(' , %* -+%&(5(-
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'5*/,+ , )4'*-
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N'&(H 7,+,% +'% -, *, 5( - +' ,% &(+ -/)'4&(+&, ,+ 5(
,&,4/-+(-% 0-,+ , 5(
&,+'5'6(.
0 E"PECTATIVAS A LP
I L(% ,@),&(&-(% ( LP 4,5(&-(% ( 5'% 4,+-/-,+&'%
)4'0(05,% , -+%&(5(-+ -*(5,%
4,5(&-'% ( 5'% 4,+-/-,+&'% ( '0&,+,4 5( -+,4%-
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- S, ,+*,+&4( ,+ *+( -+%,*4-( 5(% '+%-,4(-'+,% ,5 +-,5
,+,4(5 , 5( DE )(4( ,+&4' , 1! ( 1 ('% ' 2! *, +' %,
'+',.
++
- E+ *+( ,'+'/6( NO )5(+-:-(( ,%&((+. )'4 ,+-/( , &''% 5'% ,/>%
(%),&'% , 5(% )4,-%-'+,% ( L.P. \ L( -+'4(+-( ,5 F*&*4'
5( -+%,*4-( , 5' *, +' %, 4,,
%(0,4 (,4( ,5 :*&*4'.
L( -+%,*4-( ,@&4,/( , 5(% -4*+%&(+-(% ,+ *, %, :'4/(+ 5(%
,@),&(&-(% ( L.P. ,% 5( 4(+ -+,%&(0-5-( *, (4(&,4-?( ( ,%&(%
,@),&(&-(% 5( -+,%&(0-5-( '+%-*-,+&, , 5( -( ,'+
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E5 %-%&,/( :-+(+-,4' '+&4-0*, ' :(-5-&( 5( I /*;(% ,,% &-,+, ( (*/,+&(4
5( -+,%&(0-5-( ,5 %-%&,/(
I INFLUENCIA DE LA BOLSA DE VALORES EN LOS RENDIMIENTOS
PREVISTOS
L( %-&*(-
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- L( 0(%, )4-+-)(5 , 5'% `a ,+ 5( B'5%( V(5'4,% %'+ 5(% `a ,+ 5(%
,@),&(&-(% '44-,+&,% 4,5(&-(% ( 5'% ('+&,-/-,+&'% :*&*4'% *, ;(+
, -+:5*-4 ,+ 5'% 4,+-/-,+&'% :*&*4'%.
L( B'5%( , V(5'4,% %'+ ,5 ,%5(0
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CAPT13
A EL INTERES Y EL DINERO
I EMK
-
E5 - ,% *+ :,+
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L( 4,*5(-% *%('% )(4( 5( 4,*5(-
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B LA TEORIA DEL INTERES
E5 -+,4' %, ,/(+( )'4*, ,% ,5 +-' (&-' ),4:,&(/,+&, 56*-'.
L'% *, +,,%-&(+ -+,4' )'4 4(?'+,% ),4%'+(5,% , +,'-'% +'
5' )'%,,+ ,%&>+ -%)*,%&'% ( )((4Z *+ )4,-' )'4 %* *%' ( 5'% *,
%, ,%)4,+,+ , 5-*-,?. E% ,-4 5( 4,'/),+%( )'4 +' (&,%'4(4.
E5 &-)' , - ,),+, , 5( )4,:,4,+-( )'4 5( 5-*-,? ,+ 4,5(-
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- I \ `N f L( )'56&-( /'+,&(4-( )(%( , I ,5 N.
EMK
N'&(Z I+,4%
` M \ a -
D-4,&'
` P. L \ ` -
I+,4%(
` P.A (-'+,% \ a -
M('4,% (+&-(,% , -+,4' -4>+ (%'-((% ( &-)'% />% 0('% ,
-+&,4% -,,4%( ,+ &(+&' *, ),4/(+,?(+ %-+ (5&,4(-
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L(% :5*&*(-'+,% ,5 &-)' , - ( L.P. %, 4,:5,(+ ,+ `a ,+ ,5 )4,-' ,
5(% '05-(-'+,% ,+ 5'% /,4('% , (5'4,%. A /,-( *, %, ,5,( ,+
,5 /,4(' ,5 )4,-' , 5(% '05-(-'+,% ( %*%4-&(% 0(( ,5 &-)' ,
-+&,4% ( /,-( *, 0(( ,5 )4,-' , 5(% '05-(-'+,% %, ,5,( ,5
&-)' , -+&,4%.
_ P4,-' , '05-(-'+,% \ ^ -
^ P4,-' , '05-(-'+,% \ _ -
E,/)5'H
S- *+( '05-(-
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,/)*(+' (%- (5 (5?( , 5'% )4,-'% '05-(-'+,% -%/-+*,+' ,5 &-)' ,
-+&,4% -,,4%(.
U+ (*/,+&' ,+ 5( )4,:,4,+-( , 5-*-,? %, 4,:5,( ,+ *+( (-,? ,5
)05-' )'4 ,+,4 '05-(-'+,%. E+ *+( B'5%( , V,+,'4,% ,5
)4,-' , 5(% '05-(-'+,% 0(( ,5 &-)' , -+&,4% %*0,.
L( (*&'4-( /'+,&(4-( )*,, (*/,+&(4 5( ':,4&( , -+,4' ,-&(4
(%6 5( %*0-( ,5 &-)' , -+&,4% (*-4-,+' 5'% (5'4,% *, ,5
)05-' ,%,( ,+,4 (5 )4,-' '44-,+&, , 5( B'5%( *(+' 5(
(*&'4-( /'+,&(4-( )(( %*% (*-%--'+,% '+ -+,4' +*,'
(*/,+&' 5( ':,4&( , -+,4' , -/)-, *+( ,5,(-
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C LA PREFERENCIA POR LA LI#UIDE$.
L( D,/(+( , D-+,4' ,% *+( ,/(+( , 5-*-,?.
( 3 /'&-'% -%&-+&'% *, -/)*5%(+ 5( )4,:,4,+-( )'4 5( 5-*-,?H
1 M'&-' T4(+%(-
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A /,-( *, ,%, ,5,( ,5 &'&(5 , )4'*- ,+ 4,5(- *+ %(5' ,
]3!!.!! ,5 )4-/,4 6( *, -%/-+*, ]1! (( 6( ;(%&( :-+ , /,% '+ %(5'
, ,4'. E5 %(5' j )(4( ,5 /,% %,4-( , ]1!. P,4' %- ,%, /-%/' -+--*' %,
5, )((%, %,/(+(5/,+&, %* %(5' )4'/,-' %,4> , ]3.! ' %,( 5( j ,5
)(' %,/(+(5 , ].!!.
L(% ,/)4,%(% (5 -*(5 *, 5'% -+--*'% %-,+&,+ 5( +,,%-( , &,+,4 %(5'%
0(+(4-'% ,+ (( )(4( &,+,4 *+ )*,+&, ,+&4, 5'% ,%,/0'5%'% )(4( (%&(4
,+ -+4,%' )4',,+&, , 5(% ,+&(% , )4'*&'% ((0('%.
P'4 ,%' 5,%-+&,4,%( (5'% 0(+'%)((4 '+&(4,&(% ,-+,4' *,
,55'%/(+,(+.
80
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Y ( -*(5 *, '+ 5'% -+--*'% `a ,+ )4')'4-% , 5( (+&-( *,
,%&-+(+ ( &4(+%(-'+,% %*4, ,5 /'&-' )4,(*-
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Y 5( ,&()( , ,%(44'55' , 5'% /,4('% '4(+-?('%.
C'/' B. , V.
E% ,-4 ,5 ),5-4' , ,4%, ()(4&(' ,5 4-&' (+&, 4-%-% ' )4-(%
,&. &-,+, ( (*/,+&(4 5( /(+-&* , 5(% 4,%,4(% , 5(% ,/)4,%(%
)'4 ,5 /'&-' )4,(*-
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M'&-' E%),*5(- ,5 :*&*4'.
L( (*-%--+ )'%)*,%&(% %- %,
,%),4( *, %*0( ,5 &-)' , -. S- ,5 &-)' _ - %*0, ,+&'+,% 0((4( ,5
)4,-' , 5(% '05-(-'+,%. L( ),4%'+( *, ;(( ,%),*5(' )(4(
&,+,4 -+,4' )*,, \ '/)4(4 (5 )4,-' -+:,4-'4 '0&,+,4 *+
0,+,:--' ,+ 5( B.V %- _ - \ ^ )4,-' '05- ,%),*5(-
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2. E+ 5( )4,:,4,+-( )'4 5( 5-*-,? *, -+&,4( '+ - ,% ,5 *, %*4, ,5/'&-' ,%),*5(-
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(i
6
5
4
. D-:,4,+&,% ,:,&'% , *+( M1 /'&-' ,%),*5(-% ,
,%&( 0(( , 5( - ,%&( 5( (-
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(i
6
5
(i
6
5
)*,, 4,(-'+(4 (5 (5?( ' ( 5( 0(( 5' *, ;(, /,+'% /(4('% 5'%/'-/-,+&'%.
IMPLICACIONES PRKCTICAS DE LA TEORA DEL DINERO = EL INTERS
E5 '0-,4+' )*,, ,%&-/*5(4 ,5 ,/)5,' /,-(+&, ,5 (*/,+&' , 5( ':,4&( ,-+,4'
M , ] )(4( M2 /'&-' ,%),*5(- ,:,&-' ,),+-,+'H
1 D, 5' *, 0(, ,5 &-)' , -+&,4% ( '+%,*,+-( ,5 M2 , 5( ,5(%&--(
, 5( :*+- (%6 %- 5(EMK -%/-+*, '+ /('4 4()-,? *, ,5 -. - E+ *+( ,)4,%-
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T4(/)( , 5-*-,?
( E+ ,5 C.P. ,% /*;' /(% :(-5 ;(,4 0((4 5'% &-)'% , -+&,4%/-,+&4(% *, ,5 &-)' , - ( L.P ,% /(% -:6-5 , 0((4 %, ;(,(( ,? /(% 4,%-%&,+&, ( -+&,4-'4,% 4,*-'+,% ( (( )(%';(-( 5( 0(( (5 55,(4 ( -,4&' +-,5 )'4 ,,/)5' , 2 USA (+' )*,,+ 5'4(4%, /(% 4,*-'+,% ,5 - , *+ ()5(+(/-,+&'
, 5( *4(. E%&, ()5(+(/-,+&' -+-( *+( /('4 ,5(%&--( , 5(:*+-
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TEORIA CLASICA
(i ID1ID2(i ID2ID1
(i
R,*5(-
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:I:I;'I
- Di$$a&d, D)d$e, a ?e#&a E.#n*mi.a de @#An Mana&d Kene!, Ed )i$a&, E!aa, 1980
- 'a$"&aiA @#An K, E$ C&a. de$ 29, Ed &ie$, E!aa, 1983
- Ban!en, $in B, ')a de Kene!, Ed >CE, Mi.#, 1983
- Kene!, @#An M, ?e#&a 'ene&a$ de $a ;.)a.i*n, e$ Ine&! e$ Dine, Ed >CE, Mi.#,1976
- K)&iAa&a, KenneA K, Ind)..i*n a $a Dinmi.a Ke)e!iana, Ed >CE, Mi.#, 1967
- %a$me&, CE, Mi.#, 1983
- Ka$d#&, a E.#n#ma Kene!iana Cin.)ena #! De!)!, en Ine!ia.i*n E.#n*mi.a, J#181, @)$i#-!eiem"&e 1987, >a.)$ad de E.#n#ma JM
- Kene!, @#An M, ?e#&a 'ene&a$ de $a ;.)a.i*n, e$ Ine&! e$ Dine, Ed >CE, Mi.#,1976
89
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- K&iAa&a, KenneA K, Ind)..i*n a $a Dinmi.a Kene!iana, Ed >CE, Mi.#, 1967
-Jaa&, CAe, @Cenin, )ne! de Ma.e.#n#mia, 1997