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SEMINARIO DE BIOTECNOLOGIA Y BIOSEGURIDAD: CIBIOGEM México, DF Mayo 22, 2014
Costos y Beneficios del Maíz Genéticamente
Modificado en México: un Análisis de
Equilibrio General George A. Dyer Abt Associates, Inc.
Javier Becerril Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán
Quantitative program characteristic
Produccion
Consumo Inversion
Ingreso
escenarios estilizados
Q Q
L
A1 agentes A2 L1 A3 R A4 L2
N
D
escenario 1: aumento selectivo (10%) precio cultivo comercial
wL
rD
Y
escenario 2: subsidio selectivo (10%) a insumos
Q Q
L
A1 agentes A2 L1 A3 R A4 L2
N
D
escenario 3: aumento general (5%) en productividad de cultivos básicos
wL
rD
Y
Probabilidad de adopción de híbridos
(1) (2) (3)
age 0.003 0.002
[0.008] [0.008]
educa 0.009 0.008
[0.034] [0.039]
hhsize 0.004 0.009
[0.042] [0.048]
indigena -0.636*** -0.652**
[0.230] [0.320]
entro 0.780*** 0.885*** 0.839***
[0.198] [0.222] [0.233]
r1 1.330** 1.593***
[0.558] [0.580]
r2 1.136** 1.134**
[0.537] [0.549]
r3 2.153*** 1.999***
[0.540] [0.549]
r4 2.391*** 2.253***
[0.612] [0.631]
low_a 0.292 0.503
[0.294] [0.314]
mid_a 0.746** 0.789**
[0.300] [0.313]
_cons -1.431** -3.228*** -3.343***
[0.587] [0.580] [0.854]
N 320 324 320
* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01
(1)
VARIABLES xtlogit
HDDs (Celsius) 5-yr average 0.0853**
(2.163)
GDDs 5-yr average 0.000535**
(2.436)
precip 5-yr average 0.00199
(0.555)
precip^2 5-yr average -1.80e-06
(-0.657)
HDD 5-year st dev -0.195**
(-2.116)
GDD 5-year st dev 0.000840
(0.285)
precip 5-year st dev 0.00412
(0.626)
precip^2 5-year st dev 1.12e-07
(0.0409)
indigenous -2.314***
(-4.650)
paved road 1.776***
(3.137)
avg time to urban 0.00191
(1.167)
ag_land_ejidal 0.878***
(2.895)
avg land slope (lower is flatter) -0.704**
(-2.077)
year 0.130**
(2.262)
ag_land_quality (lower is better) 0.245
(0.905)
Proportion of village land irrigated 0.934*
(1.862)
2.r
3.r
4.r
5.r
bint_GT32ddL1
bint_ddL1
precip_totL1
precip_totsqL1
Constant -267.0**
(-2.310)
Observations 639
Number of numc 320
z-statistics in parentheses
*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
(2)
xtlogit with
region
dummies
0.0598
(1.600)
0.000147
(0.500)
0.00511
(1.169)
-3.49e-06
(-1.077)
-0.122
(-1.384)
0.000990
(0.328)
0.00276
(0.400)
9.88e-07
(0.329)
-1.949***
(-3.680)
1.652***
(2.832)
0.00260
(1.375)
0.758**
(2.478)
-0.707**
(-2.081)
0.125**
(2.174)
0.198
(0.731)
0.767
(1.369)
-0.330
(-0.572)
0.571
(1.009)
1.048
(1.440)
0.292
(0.363)
-256.5**
(-2.226)
639
320
(3) (4)
Probability of Planting
Hybrid Corn, Random
Effects Linear
Probability
1-year
lagged
weather
0.00314
(1.325)
-8.51e-07
(-0.0306)
0.000650
(1.243)
-4.86e-07
(-1.265)
-0.00334
(-0.940)
-0.000137
(-0.419)
0.000434
(0.532)
1.41e-07
(0.382)
-0.136*** -2.229***
(-3.103) (-4.778)
0.147*** 1.599***
(2.895) (2.965)
0.000369* 0.000618
(1.689) (1.603)
0.0747** 0.931***
(2.205) (3.018)
-0.0632* -0.826**
(-1.789) (-2.320)
0.0123* 0.172***
(1.885) (3.342)
0.0187 0.308
(0.603) (1.105)
0.134* 1.051**
(1.878) (2.010)
-0.0433
(-0.813)
0.107
(1.613)
0.179**
(2.053)
0.0538
(0.532)
0.00469
(0.548)
0.000230
(1.283)
0.000676
(0.488)
-1.44e-07
(-0.269)
-24.92* -348.1***
(-1.903) (-3.375)
639 639
320 320
(5)
1-year
lagged
weather
with
regional
dummies
-1.661***
(-3.355)
1.371**
(2.423)
0.000566
(1.466)
0.751**
(2.461)
-0.769**
(-2.207)
0.171***
(3.311)
0.205
(0.746)
0.903
(1.601)
-0.722
(-1.375)
0.687
(1.371)
1.144*
(1.736)
0.361
(0.452)
0.00672
(0.802)
-0.000142
(-0.612)
0.00282*
(1.800)
-7.60e-07
(-1.315)
-346.4***
(-3.345)
639
320
