Estudio Caso Plan

Modelo de Evaluacin Econmica

Tramo Actual s-pRUTA ACTUALRUTA ACTUALRUTA ACTUALCARACTERISTICAS GEOMETRICASTrnsito (Veh/Da)Velocidad de Operacin (km/hr)Costos de Operacin Vehicular ($/km)Costos Totales de Operacin ( Miles Pesos por Da)Tiempo de Recorrido (Horas)Costos por Tiempos de Recorrido (Miles de Pesos por Da)Costos de Mantenimiento (Miles de Pesos por Ao)Costos Totales (Miles de Pesos por Ao)LONGITUD20.00kmAOABCABCABCABCABCABCRutinariaPeridicaReconstruccinCOVTiempoConservacinTOTALTDPA14,00001190070014006056493.349.7811.427951373200.330.360.41325.50180.5331.971,200456,834196,3731,200654,407A%85.0%11231772514496056493.349.7811.428231423310.330.360.41336.90186.8533.091,200472,823203,2461,200677,269B%5.0%21274875015006056493.349.7811.428521473430.330.360.41348.69193.3934.251,200489,372210,3601,200700,932C%10.0%31319477615526056493.349.7811.428811523550.330.360.41360.89200.1635.451,200506,500217,7221,200725,422TERRENOp(p, l, m)41365680316076056493.349.7811.429121573670.330.360.41373.52207.1636.691,200524,228225,3421,200750,770CRECIMIENTO3.50%51413383116636056493.349.7811.429441633800.330.360.41386.60214.4237.971,20010,000542,575233,22911,200787,005ESTADO FISICO (IRI)3.7061462886017216056493.349.7811.429771683930.330.360.41400.13221.9239.301,200561,566241,3931,200804,15871514089117816056493.349.7811.421,0111744070.330.360.41414.13229.6940.681,200581,220249,8411,200832,26281567092218446056493.349.7811.421,0471804210.330.360.41428.63237.7342.101,200601,563258,5861,200861,349VALOR DEL TIEMPO91621895419086056493.349.7811.421,0831874360.330.360.41443.63246.0543.571,200622,618267,6361,200891,454Valor del tiempo viaje de trabajo37.30$/hr101678698719756056493.349.7811.421,1211934510.330.360.41459.16254.6645.101,20010,000644,409277,00311,200932,613Valor del tiempo viaje de placer22.38$/hr1117374102220446056493.349.7811.421,1612004670.330.360.41475.23263.5746.681,200666,964286,6991,200954,862% de viajeros por motivo de trabajo70.0%1217982105821156056493.349.7811.421,2012074830.330.360.41491.86272.8048.311,200690,308296,7331,200988,241% de viajeros por motivo de placer30.0%1318611109521906056493.349.7811.421,2432145000.330.360.41509.07282.3450.001,200714,468307,1191,2001,022,787Nmero de pasajeros auto2.50pas/veh1419262113322666056493.349.7811.421,2872225180.330.360.41526.89292.2351.751,200739,475317,8681,2001,058,543Nmero de pasajeros autobs22.00pas/veh1519937117323456056493.349.7811.421,3322295360.330.360.41545.33302.4553.561,20040,000765,356328,99341,2001,135,550Nmero de pasajeros camin1.50pas/veh1620634121424286056493.349.7811.421,3782375540.330.360.41564.42313.0455.441,200792,144340,5081,2001,133,852% de viajeros por motivo de trabajo100.0%1721357125625136056493.349.7811.421,4272465740.330.360.41584.18324.0057.381,200819,869352,4261,2001,173,495% de viajeros por motivo de placer0.0%1822104130026006056493.349.7811.421,4772545940.330.360.41604.62335.3459.391,200848,564364,7611,2001,214,525Tasa de Descuento12%1922878134626926056493.349.7811.421,5282636150.330.360.41625.78347.0761.471,200878,264377,5271,2001,256,991COSTOS DE CONSERVACION2023678139327866056493.349.7811.421,5822726360.330.360.41647.69359.2263.621,20010,000909,003390,74111,2001,310,944Tipo de pavimentoAsfalto2124507144228836056493.349.7811.421,6372826590.330.360.41670.35371.7965.841,200940,818404,4171,2001,346,435Conservacin rutinaria60,000$/km2225365149229846056493.349.7811.421,6942926820.330.360.41693.82384.8168.151,200973,747418,5711,2001,393,518Conservacin peridica500,000$/km2326253154430896056493.349.7811.421,7543027050.330.360.41718.10398.2770.531,2001,007,828433,2211,2001,442,249Reconstruccin$2,000,000$/km2427172159831976056493.349.7811.421,8153137300.330.360.41743.23412.2173.001,2001,043,102448,3841,2001,492,6862528123165433096056493.349.7811.421,8793247560.330.360.41769.25426.6475.561,20010,0001,079,611464,07711,2001,554,888Nmero de carriles27METROS2629107171234246056493.349.7811.421,9443357820.330.360.41796.17441.5778.201,2001,117,397480,3201,2001,598,9172730126177235446056493.349.7811.422,0123478090.330.360.41824.04457.0380.941,2001,156,506497,1311,2001,654,8372831180183436686056493.349.7811.422,0833598380.330.360.41852.88473.0283.771,2001,196,984514,5311,2001,712,715COSTO BASE A3.34$/km2932271189837976056493.349.7811.422,1563718670.330.360.41882.73489.5886.701,2001,238,878532,5391,2001,772,618COSTO BASE B9.78$/km3033401196539306056493.349.7811.422,2313848980.330.360.41913.62506.7289.741,2001,282,239551,1781,2001,834,617COSTO BASE C11.42$/kmFb "A"1Fb "B"1Fb "C"1

&LAsignatura: Metodologa de la PlaneacinProfesor: Ing. Agustn Melo Jimnez&CUNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL AUTONOMA DE MEXICOFACULTAD DE INGENIERIA&RAlumno: Valdivia Rosas Miguel

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Tramo Actual c-pRUTA ACTUAL CON PROYECTORUTA ACTUAL CON PROYECTORUTA ACTUAL CON PROYECTOCARACTERISTICAS GEOMETRICASTrnsito (Veh/Da)Velocidad de Operacin (km/hr)Costos de Operacin Vehicular ($/km)Costos Totales de Operacin (Miles de Pesos por Da)Tiempo de Recorrido (Horas)Costos por Tiempos de Recorrido (Miles de Pesos por Da)Costos de Mantenimiento (Miles de Pesos por Ao)Costos Totales (Miles de Pesos por Ao)LONGITUD20.00kmAOABCABCABCABCABCABCNormalRutinariaReconstruccinCOVTiempoConservacinTOTALTDPA6,000051003006007065553.259.5811.24332571350.290.310.36119.5766.6612.211,200191,20972,4301,200264,839A%85.0%152793116217065553.259.5811.24343591400.290.310.36123.7668.9912.631,200197,90174,9651,200274,066B%5.0%254633216437065553.259.5811.24355621440.290.310.36128.0971.4113.081,200204,82877,5891,200283,617C%10.0%356543336657065553.259.5811.24368641500.290.310.36132.5773.9013.531,200211,99780,3041,200293,501TERRENOp(p, l, m)458523446897065553.259.5811.24380661550.290.310.36137.2176.4914.011,200219,41783,1151,200303,732CRECIMIENTO3.50%560573567137065553.259.5811.24394681600.290.310.36142.0279.1714.501,20010,000227,09686,02411,200324,320ESTADO FISICO (IRI)3.70662693697387065553.259.5811.24407711660.290.310.36146.9981.9415.011,200235,04589,0351,200325,280764893827637065553.259.5811.24422731720.290.310.36152.1384.8115.531,200243,27192,1511,200336,622867163957907065553.259.5811.24437761780.290.310.36157.4587.7816.071,200251,78695,3761,200348,362VALOR DEL TIEMPO969514098187065553.259.5811.24452781840.290.310.36162.9790.8516.641,200260,59898,7151,200360,513Valor del tiempo viaje de trabajo37.30$/hr1071944238467065553.259.5811.24468811900.290.310.36168.6794.0317.221,20010,000269,719102,17011,200383,089Valor del tiempo viaje de placer22.38$/hr1174464388767065553.259.5811.24484841970.290.310.36174.5797.3217.821,200279,159105,7461,200386,105% de viajeros por motivo de trabajo70.0%1277064539077065553.259.5811.24501872040.290.310.36180.68100.7218.451,200288,930109,4471,200399,576% de viajeros por motivo de placer30.0%1379764699387065553.259.5811.24518902110.290.310.36187.01104.2519.091,200299,042113,2771,200413,520Nmero de pasajeros auto2.50pas/veh1482554869717065553.259.5811.24537932180.290.310.36193.55107.9019.761,200309,509117,2421,200427,951Nmero de pasajeros autobs22.00pas/veh15854450310057065553.259.5811.24555962260.290.310.36200.33111.6820.451,20040,000320,342121,34641,200482,887Nmero de pasajeros camin1.50pas/veh16884352010407065553.259.5811.245751002340.290.310.36207.34115.5821.171,200331,554125,5931,200458,346% de viajeros por motivo de trabajo100.0%17915353810777065553.259.5811.245951032420.290.310.36214.59119.6321.911,200343,158129,9881,200474,346% de viajeros por motivo de placer0.0%18947355711147065553.259.5811.246161072510.290.310.36222.11123.8222.671,200355,168134,5381,200490,906Tasa de Descuento12%19980557711547065553.259.5811.246371112590.290.310.36229.88128.1523.471,200367,599139,2471,200508,046COSTOS DE CONSERVACION201014859711947065553.259.5811.246601142680.290.310.36237.93132.6424.291,20010,000380,465144,12011,200535,786Tipo de pavimentoAsfalto211050361812367065553.259.5811.246831182780.290.310.36246.25137.2825.141,200393,782149,1651,200544,146Conservacin rutinaria60,000$/km221087163912797065553.259.5811.247071232870.290.310.36254.87142.0826.021,200407,564154,3851,200563,149Conservacin peridica500,000$/km231125166213247065553.259.5811.247311272980.290.310.36263.79147.0626.931,200421,829159,7891,200582,818Reconstruccin$2,000,000$/km241164568513707065553.259.5811.247571313080.290.310.36273.02152.2027.871,200436,593165,3821,200603,174251205370914187065553.259.5811.247831363190.290.310.36282.58157.5328.851,20010,000451,873171,17011,200634,243Nmero de carriles27METROS261247473414687065553.259.5811.248111413300.290.310.36292.47163.0429.861,200467,689177,1611,200646,050271291175915197065553.259.5811.248391463410.290.310.36302.71168.7530.901,200484,058183,3611,200668,620281336378615727065553.259.5811.248691513530.290.310.36313.30174.6631.991,200501,000189,7791,200691,979COSTO BASE A3.25$/km291383181416277065553.259.5811.248991563660.290.310.36324.27180.7733.101,200518,535196,4211,200716,157COSTO BASE B9.58$/km301431584216847065553.259.5811.249301613790.290.310.36335.62187.1034.261,200536,684203,2961,200741,180COSTO BASE C11.24$/kmFb "A"1Fb "B"1Fb "C"1


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Ruta NuevaPROYECTOPROYECTOPROYECTOCARACTERISTICAS GEOMETRICASTrnsito (Veh/Da)Velocidad de Operacin (km/hr)Costos de Operacin Vehicular ($/km)Costos Totales de Operacin (Miles de Pesos por Da)Tiempo de Recorrido (Horas)Costos por Tiempos de Recorrido (Miles de Pesos por Da)Costos de Mantenimiento (Miles de Pesos por Ao)Costos Totales (Miles de Pesos por Ao)LONGITUD18.00kmAOABCABCABCABCABCABCNormalRutinariaReconstruccinCOVTiempoConservacinTOTALTDPA8,0000680040080010091703.029.1410.40370661500.180.200.26100.4457.1411.511,800213,60461,7171,800277,120A%85.0%1703841482810091703.029.1410.40383681550.180.200.26103.9659.1411.911,800221,08063,8771,800286,757B%5.0%2728442885710091703.029.1410.40396701600.180.200.26107.6061.2012.331,800228,81866,1121,800296,730C%10.0%3753944388710091703.029.1410.40410731660.180.200.26111.3663.3512.761,800236,82668,4261,800307,053TERRENOp(p, l, m)4780345991810091703.029.1410.40424761720.180.200.26115.2665.5613.211,800245,11570,8211,800317,737CRECIMIENTO3.50%5807647595010091703.029.1410.40439781780.180.200.26119.2967.8613.671,80014,400253,69473,30016,200343,194ESTADO FISICO (IRI)2.606835949298310091703.029.1410.40454811840.180.200.26123.4770.2314.151,800262,57475,8651,800340,23978651509101810091703.029.1410.40470841910.180.200.26127.7972.6914.641,800271,76478,5211,800352,08488954527105310091703.029.1410.40487871970.180.200.26132.2675.2415.161,800281,27581,2691,800364,344VALOR DEL TIEMPO99268545109010091703.029.1410.40504902040.180.200.26136.8977.8715.691,800291,12084,1131,800377,033Valor del tiempo viaje de trabajo37.30$/hr109592564112810091703.029.1410.40521932110.180.200.26141.6880.6016.241,80014,400301,30987,05716,200404,567Valor del tiempo viaje de placer22.38$/hr119928584116810091703.029.1410.40540962190.180.200.26146.6483.4216.801,800311,85590,1041,800403,759% de viajeros por motivo de trabajo70.0%1210275604120910091703.029.1410.40559992260.180.200.26151.7786.3417.391,800322,77093,2581,800417,828% de viajeros por motivo de placer30.0%1310635626125110091703.029.1410.405781032340.180.200.26157.0989.3618.001,800334,06796,5221,800432,389Nmero de pasajeros auto2.50pas/veh1411007647129510091703.029.1410.405981072420.180.200.26162.5892.4818.631,800345,75999,9001,800447,460Nmero de pasajeros autobs22.00pas/veh1511392670134010091703.029.1410.406191102510.180.200.26168.2795.7219.281,80063,000357,861103,39764,800526,058Nmero de pasajeros camin1.50pas/veh1611791694138710091703.029.1410.406411142600.180.200.26174.1699.0719.961,800370,386107,0161,800479,202% de viajeros por motivo de trabajo100.0%1712204718143610091703.029.1410.406631182690.180.200.26180.26102.5420.661,800383,350110,7611,800495,911% de viajeros por motivo de placer0.0%1812631743148610091703.029.1410.406871222780.180.200.26186.57106.1321.381,800396,767114,6381,800513,205Tasa de Descuento12%1913073769153810091703.029.1410.407111272880.180.200.26193.10109.8422.131,800410,654118,6501,800531,104COSTOS DE CONSERVACION2013531796159210091703.029.1410.407361312980.180.200.26199.86113.6922.901,80014,400425,027122,80316,200564,030Tipo de pavimentoAsfalto2114004824164810091703.029.1410.407611363080.180.200.26206.85117.6723.701,800439,902127,1011,800568,804Conservacin rutinaria100,000$/km2214494853170510091703.029.1410.407881403190.180.200.26214.09121.7824.531,800455,299131,5501,800588,649Conservacin peridica800,000$/km2315002882176510091703.029.1410.408151453300.180.200.26221.59126.0525.391,800471,235136,1541,800609,188Reconstruccin$3,500,000$/km2415527913182710091703.029.1410.408441503420.180.200.26229.34130.4626.281,800487,728140,9191,800630,4472516070945189110091703.029.1410.408741563540.180.200.26237.37135.0227.201,80014,400504,798145,85116,200666,850Nmero de carriles418METROS2616633978195710091703.029.1410.409041613660.180.200.26245.68139.7528.151,800522,466150,9561,800675,22227172151013202510091703.029.1410.409361673790.180.200.26254.27144.6429.141,800540,752156,2401,800698,79228178171048209610091703.029.1410.409691723920.180.200.26263.17149.7030.161,800559,679161,7081,800723,187COSTO BASE A3.02$/km29184411085217010091703.029.1410.401,0021784060.180.200.26272.38154.9431.211,800579,268167,3681,800748,435COSTO BASE B9.14$/km30190861123224510091703.029.1410.401,0381854200.180.200.26281.92160.3732.311,800599,542173,2261,800774,568COSTO BASE C10.4$/kmFb "A"1Fb "B"1Fb "C"1


Costos Totales s-pCOSTOS TOTALES SIN PROYECTO (miles de pesos/ao)SITUACION SIN PROYECTOAOCOVTiempoConservacinTOTAL0456,834196,3731,200654,4071472,823203,2461,200677,2692489,372210,3601,200700,9323506,500217,7221,200725,4224524,228225,3421,200750,7705542,575233,22911,200787,0056561,566241,3931,200804,1587581,220249,8411,200832,2628601,563258,5861,200861,3499622,618267,6361,200891,45410644,409277,00311,200932,61311666,964286,6991,200954,86212690,308296,7331,200988,24113714,468307,1191,2001,022,78714739,475317,8681,2001,058,54315765,356328,99341,2001,135,55016792,144340,5081,2001,133,85217819,869352,4261,2001,173,49518848,564364,7611,2001,214,52519878,264377,5271,2001,256,99120909,003390,74111,2001,310,94421940,818404,4171,2001,346,43522973,747418,5711,2001,393,518231,007,828433,2211,2001,442,249241,043,102448,3841,2001,492,686251,079,611464,07711,2001,554,888261,117,397480,3201,2001,598,917271,156,506497,1311,2001,654,837281,196,984514,5311,2001,712,715291,238,878532,5391,2001,772,618301,282,239551,1781,2001,834,617


Costos Totales C-PCOSTOS TOTALES CON PROYECTO (miles de pesos/ao)SITUACION CON PROYECTOAOCOVTiempoConservacinTOTAL0404,813134,1473,000541,9591418,981138,8423,000560,8232433,646143,7013,000580,3473448,823148,7313,000600,5544464,532153,9363,000621,4685480,791159,32427,400667,5156497,618164,9003,000665,5197515,035170,6723,000688,7078533,061176,6453,000712,7079551,718182,8283,000737,54610571,028189,22727,400787,65511591,014195,8503,000789,86412611,700202,7053,000817,40513633,109209,7993,000845,90914655,268217,1423,000875,41115678,203224,742106,0001,008,94516701,940232,6083,000937,54817726,508240,7503,000970,25718751,935249,1763,0001,004,11119778,253257,8973,0001,039,15020805,492266,92327,4001,099,81521833,684276,2663,0001,112,95022862,863285,9353,0001,151,79823893,063295,9433,0001,192,00624924,320306,3013,0001,233,62125956,672317,02127,4001,301,09326990,155328,1173,0001,321,272271,024,811339,6013,0001,367,412281,060,679351,4873,0001,415,166291,097,803363,7893,0001,464,592301,136,226376,5223,0001,515,748


AHORROSAHORROS (miles de pesos/ao)Con ProyectoAOCOVTiempoConservacinTOTAL052,02162,226(1,800)112,448153,84264,404(1,800)116,446255,72666,658(1,800)120,585357,67768,991(1,800)124,868459,69671,406(1,800)129,302561,78573,905(16,200)119,490663,94776,492(1,800)138,639766,18679,169(1,800)143,555868,50281,940(1,800)148,642970,90084,808(1,800)153,9081073,38187,776(16,200)144,9581175,94990,849(1,800)164,9981278,60894,028(1,800)170,8361381,35997,319(1,800)176,8781484,207100,725(1,800)183,1321587,154104,251(64,800)126,6051690,204107,900(1,800)196,3041793,361111,676(1,800)203,2371896,629115,585(1,800)210,41419100,011119,630(1,800)217,84120103,511123,817(16,200)211,12921107,134128,151(1,800)233,48522110,884132,636(1,800)241,72023114,765137,278(1,800)250,24324118,782142,083(1,800)259,06525122,939147,056(16,200)253,79526127,242152,203(1,800)277,64527131,695157,530(1,800)287,42528136,305163,044(1,800)297,54829141,075168,750(1,800)308,02630146,013174,657(1,800)318,869


BENEFICIOS INV 1aoTREMA12.0%INDICADORES (miles de pesos)AOINDICADORESAHORROSINVERSIN Y COSTOSBENEFICIOS ADICIONALESBENEFICIOS TOTALESVALOR PRESENTEVALOR PRESENTEVPN (MDP)TIR (%)0600,000(600,000)(600,000)0.01118,2461,800116,446103,970(496,030.11)100.0%2122,3851,800120,58596,130(399,900.57)-44.4%3126,6681,800124,86888,879(311,021.73)-21.4%4131,1021,800129,30282,174(228,848.12)-7.4%5135,69016,200119,49067,802(161,046.10)0.6%6140,4391,800138,63970,239(90,807.03)6.6%7145,3551,800143,55564,937(25,870.09)10.7%8150,4421,800148,64260,03434,164.0313.5%9155,7081,800153,90855,50189,664.7215.6%10161,15816,200144,95846,672136,337.1617.0%11166,7981,800164,99847,433183,770.1618.2%12172,6361,800170,83643,849227,619.5019.1%13178,6781,800176,87840,536268,155.4319.8%14184,9321,800183,13237,472305,627.8620.4%15191,40564,800126,60523,130328,758.0520.7%16198,1041,800196,30432,021360,779.4521.0%17205,0371,800203,23729,600390,379.8221.3%18212,2141,800210,41427,362417,741.9321.5%19219,6411,800217,84125,293443,034.7721.7%20227,32916,200211,12921,887464,921.7921.9%21235,2851,800233,48521,611486,533.0922.0%22243,5201,800241,72019,976506,509.4422.1%23252,0431,800250,24318,465524,974.3922.2%24260,8651,800259,06517,068542,042.1222.3%25269,99516,200253,79514,929556,971.1922.3%26279,4451,800277,64514,582571,553.3222.4%27289,2251,800287,42513,478585,031.7322.4%28299,3481,800297,54812,458597,489.8722.4%29309,8261,800308,02611,515609,004.8722.5%30320,6691,800318,86910,643619,648.0722.5%$600,000,000.00COSTO DE CONSTRUCCION 1 AOVPN=$619,648.07>0TIR=22%>12%TRI=19%>12%


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