Once Fallas en Simulación

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

  • 7/28/2019 Once Fallas en Simulacin

    1/3

    Eleven Critical Pitfalls in Simulation Modelingby

    Averill M. Law, Ph.D.

    The following material is a synopsis of some of the ideas presented in my three-daysimulation short courses.

    Pitfall Number 1: Failure to have a well-defined set of objectives at the beginning

    of the simulation study.

    We recommend making a list of the specific questions that the model is to address and

    also the performance measures that will be used to evaluate the efficacy of various

    system configurations. Otherwise, it will be impossible to determine the appropriate

    level of model detail.

    Pitfall Number 2: Failure to communicate with the decision-maker (or the client)

    on a regular basis.

    This is essential to ensure that the correct problem is solved and to promote model

    credibility. There are many valid (technically sound) models that are not used in thedecision-making process because they are not credible.

    Pitfall Number 3: Lack of knowledge of simulation methodology and also of

    probability and statistics.

    A significant percentage of the people involved in simulation modeling are only trainedin how to use a particular simulation software package, which we feel is definitely not

    sufficient. Most experts in simulation modeling would agree that "programming" of the

    model represents only 25 to 50 percent of a sound simulation study. The simulation

    analyst must also be knowledgeable in simulation methodology (validating a model,

    selecting input probability distributions, designing and analyzing simulation

    experiments, etc.) and also probability and statistics (probability distributions,confidence intervals, etc.).

    Pitfall Number 4: Inappropriate level of model detail.

    A very common pitfall for beginning simulation analysts is to have an excessive level of

    model detail. We recommend starting "with a moderately detailed" model which is

    embellished as needed. The adequacy of a particular version of the model is determined

    in part by having the model reviewed by "subject-matter experts" and by the decision-

    maker (or client). Modeling each aspect of the system will seldom be required to make

    effective decisions, and will also be infeasible due to time, money, or computer

    constraints.

  • 7/28/2019 Once Fallas en Simulacin

    2/3

    Pitfall Number 5: Failure to collect good system data.

    If one is modeling an existing system, it is important to collect data on key system

    random variables. (For a manufacturing system, key random variables would probably

    include times to failure and times to repair for each machine.) Often this is not donebecause of project time constraints or because the simulation analyst does not realize

    that this is an important consideration.

    Pitfall Number 6: Belief that so-called easy-to-use simulation packages require a

    significantly lower level of technical competence.

    Some people believe that a so-called "easy-to-use" simulation package will makeperforming a simulation study a much easier task. This type of software can reduce the

    time to "program" a model for problems of modest complexity. However, for most real-

    world problems, programming in some form is required. Furthermore, the simulation

    modeler will still have to be concerned with formulating the problem, collecting and

    analyzing data, validating the model, modeling system randomness, designing and

    analyzing simulation experiments, and managing the overall simulation project. These

    activities require a significant amount of technical competence and experience.

    Pitfall Number 7: Blindly using simulation software without understanding its

    underlying assumptions.

    To facilitate ease of use, simulation-software vendors have added to their softwarepowerful "macro" blocks (or modeling constructs) that model a significant part of a

    real-world system. However, these blocks are often not well documented, possibly

    resulting in the development of an invalid model. For example, one encounters many

    types of conveyors in practice, yet some simulation products only offer a few conveyor

    options.

    Pitfall Number 8: Misuse of animation.

    Animation is useful for communicating the essence of a simulation model to decision-

    makers (who may not understand all of its technical details), for debugging simulation

    computer programs, and for suggesting improved operational procedures for a system.

    However, the efficacy of a particular system design should be decided by applying

    appropriate statistical procedures to carefully designed simulation experiments. Justbecause a "short" run of the animated simulation model seems okay, this does not mean

    that the model is either debugged or valid.

    Pitfall Number 9: Replacing a probability distribution by its mean.

    A common (but unfortunate) practice in simulation modeling is to represent a source of

    system randomness by the perceived mean value rather than its correspondingprobability distribution. For example, consider a single-server queueing system where

    the mean interarrival time and mean service time are 1 minute and 0.99 minute,

    respectively. Suppose that the interarrival times and the service times actually each havean exponential distribution. Then the long-run average number in queue is

  • 7/28/2019 Once Fallas en Simulacin

    3/3

    approximately 98. Suppose, on the other hand, that a simulation analyst takes every

    interarrival time to be a constant 1 minute and every service time to be a constant 0.99

    minute. Then no customer ever waits in the queue! Thus, it is not sufficient to just get

    the mean correct we also have to represent variability in an appropriate way.

    Pitfall number 10: Using an inappropriate probability distribution.

    It is important to model each source of system randomness by an appropriate probability

    distribution. For example, many simulation practitioners represent the time to do some

    task by a normal distribution (a symmetric distribution). However, we have never seen atask-time data set that was actually normally distributed. In practice, most histograms

    have a longer right tail (positive skewness). Consider the single-server queueing systemfrom Pitfall Number 9. If one models the service-time distribution by a symmetric

    distribution when, in fact, it is positively skewed, then the average number in queuemay be significantly underestimated.

    Pitfall Number 11: Failure to perform a proper output-data analysis.

    A stochastic simulation model does not produce the true performance measures for the

    model it only produces statistical estimates of them. A simulation analyst must

    properly choose the simulation run length, the length of the warmup period (if one is

    appropriate), and the number of independent model replications (each using different

    random numbers). We recommend that confidence intervals be constructed for

    important performance measures. Note, however, that this can not be easily done using

    the data from one simulation run, since these data will not be independent (an

    assumption of classical statistics). It is also not possible to get legitimate standard

    deviation (or variance) estimates from one simulation run, yet a number of simulationsoftware products provide these automatically.