PUNTO AJEFFERSON MIRANDA PAZJESSICA DIAZ PATIO DAIRA JIMENEZ CORTEZ JHONY GOMEZa) Dibuje el grfico de la demanda en unidades contra el tiempo en semanas y discuta acerca del tipo de patrn de demanda observado

1122113134175156147158179111016111312231351471521619172018181992062117Podemos observar que la demanda en unidades contra el tiempo en semanas fluctua de tal manera que se dan unas demandas que traeran pronosticos sobre o subestimados y se vera la necesidad de hacer ajustes en los pronosticos 2221239242625626152710287291430631332233123414351936123713810392140124113421431544164574613473482491450115119521053654955135613571058859160161462176346413657661567968116987057113729732174175176477127897914801181682883118448528648798813895

SUAVIZADO EXPONENCIALd) Realice un suavizado exponencial, tomando como base para el pronstico las primeras 12 semanas (semanas 40 -51) realizando un promedio mvil y utilice un valor de = 0,15e) Trate de encontrar un valor de que optimice los resultados obtenidos en el literal d)f) Calcule la desviacin estndar tanto del mtodo de promedio mvil como del suavizado exponencial y saque sus propias conclusiones.PERIODOSSEMANADEMANDAPRONOSTICO=0,15MAD=0,15PRONOSTICO=0,2MAD=0,3PERIODOSSEMANADEMANDAPM152109.019.011401225369.153.159.1432411335498.680.32258.7103421455138.734.2741258.724443158.7556139.373.633006259.324544169.7657109.910.08805531259.880645710.775889.931.92515298449.9227461312.785919.648.63638003679.669847312.096018.347.34092303128.43794827.7106147.243.23978457657.3131049146.01162176.7510.246183116.79101150116.3126348.294.29074435658.1941251199.01364137.655.35286729697.695146578.451.45006279768.4011566158.236.7674466228.257166799.250.24767037139.1801768119.211.78948018449.212186989.481.47894184329.461197059.264.25710056689.2742071138.624.38146451838.664217299.280.27575515959.2302273219.2311.76560811449.24122374111.009.999233102710.8810247519.508.49934813739.609257648.224.22444591678.3142677127.594.40922097087.634277898.250.74783782528.2112879148.365.63566215148.3662980119.211.79031282879.152308169.483.47823409569.463318288.960.95649898138.9913283118.812.18697586598.822338449.145.1410705149.125348528.376.36990993698.426358647.413.41442344637.483368796.902.09774007066.9423788137.225.783079067.206388958.083.0843827998.033TOTAL4.04.045DESVIACION ESTANDAR:5.0569614419

MEJOR VALOR N=6b) Utilice diferentes valores de N (entre 6 y 15) para calcular el promedio mvil y determine el valor de N que minimiza los indicadores de precisin del pronstico (MAD, MSE, MAPE)c) Elabore una tabla donde muestre los diferentes valores N con sus respectivos indicadores de precisin de pronsticoPERIODOSEMANADEMANDAPMError de PMMADMSEMAPE40124113421431544164571461310.7-2.32.35.417.95247310.87.87.861.4261.1134829.27.27.251.4358.33449149.3-4.74.721.833.33550119.2-1.81.83.416.67651198.3-10.710.7113.856.147521010.30.30.30.13.3385369.83.83.814.763.89954910.31.31.31.814.8110551311.5-1.51.52.311.5411561311.3-1.71.72.812.8212571011.71.71.72.816.671358810.22.22.24.727.08145919.88.88.878.0883.33156019.08.08.064.0800.00166147.73.73.713.491.671762176.2-10.810.8117.463.73186346.82.82.88.070.831964135.8-7.27.251.455.13206576.7-0.30.30.14.762166157.7-7.37.353.848.892267910.01.01.01.011.1123681110.8-0.20.20.01.52246989.81.81.83.422.922570510.55.55.530.3110.002671139.2-3.83.814.729.492772910.21.21.21.412.962873219.2-11.811.8140.056.352974111.210.210.2103.41016.67307519.58.58.572.3850.00317648.34.34.318.8108.333277128.2-3.83.814.731.94337898.0-1.01.01.011.113479148.0-6.06.036.042.863580116.8-4.24.217.437.88368168.52.52.56.341.67378289.31.31.31.816.6738831110.0-1.01.01.09.09398449.85.85.834.0145.83408529.07.07.049.0350.00418647.03.03.09.075.00428795.8-3.23.210.035.194388136.3-6.76.744.451.28448957.22.22.24.743.33

MAD4.429.24136.891DESVIACION ESTANDAR:5.4545454545

N=7PERIODOSEMANADEMANDAPMError de PMMADMSEMAPE4012411342143154416457461314739.36.36.339.5209.5224829.27.27.251.4358.33349149.3-4.74.721.833.33450119.2-1.81.83.416.67551198.3-10.710.7113.856.146521010.30.30.30.13.3375369.83.83.814.763.89854910.31.31.31.814.819551311.5-1.51.52.311.5410561311.3-1.71.72.812.8211571011.71.71.72.816.671258810.22.22.24.727.08135919.88.88.878.0883.33146019.08.08.064.0800.00156147.73.73.713.491.671662176.2-10.810.8117.463.73176346.82.82.88.070.831864135.8-7.27.251.455.13196576.7-0.30.30.14.762066157.7-7.37.353.848.892167910.01.01.01.011.1122681110.8-0.20.20.01.52236989.81.81.83.422.922470510.55.55.530.3110.002571139.2-3.83.814.729.492672910.21.21.21.412.962773219.2-11.811.8140.056.352874111.210.210.2103.41016.67297519.58.58.572.3850.00307648.34.34.318.8108.333177128.2-3.83.814.731.94327898.0-1.01.01.011.113379148.0-6.06.036.042.863480116.8-4.24.217.437.88358168.52.52.56.341.67368289.31.31.31.816.6737831110.0-1.01.01.09.09388449.85.85.834.0145.83398529.07.07.049.0350.00408647.03.03.09.075.00418795.8-3.23.210.035.194288136.3-6.76.744.451.28438957.22.22.24.743.33

total4.429.29138.458

N=8PERIODOSEMANADEMANDAPMError de PMMADMSEMAPE4012411342143154416457461347314826.94.94.923.8243.75249147.0-7.07.049.050.00350116.9-4.14.117.037.50451196.3-12.812.8162.667.11552107.8-2.32.35.122.5065367.41.41.41.922.9275497.8-1.31.31.613.89855138.6-4.44.419.133.65956138.5-4.54.520.334.621057108.8-1.31.31.612.50115887.6-0.40.40.14.69125917.46.46.440.6637.50136016.85.85.833.1575.00146145.81.81.83.143.751562174.6-12.412.4153.172.79166345.11.11.11.328.131764134.4-8.68.674.466.35186575.0-2.02.04.028.571966155.8-9.39.385.661.67206797.5-1.51.52.316.672168118.1-2.92.98.326.14226987.4-0.60.60.47.81237057.92.92.98.357.502471136.9-6.16.137.547.12257297.6-1.41.41.915.282673216.9-14.114.1199.567.26277418.47.47.454.4737.50287517.16.16.137.5612.50297646.32.32.35.156.253077126.1-5.95.934.548.96317896.0-3.03.09.033.333279146.0-8.08.064.057.143380115.1-5.95.934.553.41348166.40.40.40.16.25358287.0-1.01.01.012.503683117.5-3.53.512.331.82378447.43.43.411.484.38388526.84.84.822.6237.50398645.31.31.31.631.25408794.4-4.64.621.451.394188134.8-8.38.368.163.46428955.40.40.40.17.50

total4.431.73105.233

N=9PERIODOSEMANADEMANDAPMError de PMMADMSEMAPE40124113421431544164574613473482149146.2-7.87.860.555.56250116.1-4.94.923.944.44351195.6-13.413.4180.870.76452106.9-3.13.19.731.1155366.60.60.60.39.2665496.9-2.12.14.523.46755137.7-5.35.328.441.03856137.6-5.45.429.641.88957107.8-2.22.24.922.22105886.8-1.21.21.515.28115916.65.65.630.9555.56126016.05.05.025.0500.00136145.11.11.11.227.781462174.1-12.912.9166.175.82156344.60.60.60.313.891664133.9-9.19.183.070.09176574.4-2.62.66.536.511866155.1-9.99.997.865.93196796.7-2.32.35.425.932068117.2-3.83.814.334.34216986.6-1.41.42.118.06227057.02.02.04.040.002371136.1-6.96.947.552.99247296.8-2.22.24.924.692573216.1-14.914.9221.770.90267417.46.46.441.5644.44277516.35.35.328.4533.33287645.61.61.62.438.892977125.4-6.66.643.054.63307895.3-3.73.713.440.743179145.3-8.78.775.161.903280114.6-6.46.441.558.59338165.7-0.30.30.15.56348286.2-1.81.83.222.223583116.7-4.34.318.839.39368446.62.62.66.563.89378526.04.04.016.0200.00388644.70.70.70.416.67398793.9-5.15.126.156.794088134.2-8.88.877.067.52418954.8-0.20.20.04.44

total4.735.3394.548

N=10PERIODOSEMANADEMANDAPMError de PMMADMSEMAPE401241134214315441645746134734824914150115.5-5.55.530.350.00251195.0-14.014.0196.073.68352106.2-3.83.814.438.0045365.9-0.10.10.01.6755496.2-2.82.87.831.11655136.9-6.16.137.246.92756136.8-6.26.238.447.69857107.0-3.03.09.030.0095886.1-1.91.93.623.75105915.94.94.924.0490.00116015.44.44.419.4440.00126144.60.60.60.415.001362173.7-13.313.3176.978.24146344.10.10.10.02.501564133.5-9.59.590.373.08166574.0-3.03.09.042.861766154.6-10.410.4108.269.33186796.0-3.03.09.033.331968116.5-4.54.520.340.91206985.9-2.12.14.426.25217056.31.31.31.726.002271135.5-7.57.556.357.69237296.1-2.92.98.432.222473215.5-15.515.5240.373.81257416.75.75.732.5570.00267515.74.74.722.1470.00277645.01.01.01.025.002877124.9-7.17.150.459.17297894.8-4.24.217.646.673079144.8-9.29.284.665.713180114.1-6.96.947.662.73328165.1-0.90.90.815.00338285.6-2.42.45.830.003483116.0-5.05.025.045.45358445.91.91.93.647.50368525.43.43.411.6170.00378644.20.20.20.05.00388793.5-5.55.530.361.113988133.8-9.29.284.670.77408954.3-0.70.70.514.00

total4.938.0890.054

N=11PERIODOSEMANADEMANDAPMError de PMMADMSEMAPE4012411342143154416457461347348249145011151194.5-14.514.5208.976.08252105.6-4.44.419.043.6435365.4-0.60.60.410.6145495.6-3.43.411.337.37555136.3-6.76.745.351.75656136.2-6.86.846.552.45757106.4-3.63.613.236.3685885.5-2.52.56.030.6895915.44.44.419.0436.36106014.93.93.915.3390.91116144.20.20.20.04.551262173.4-13.613.6186.080.21136343.7-0.30.30.16.821464133.2-9.89.896.475.52156573.6-3.43.411.348.051666154.2-10.810.8117.072.12176795.5-3.53.512.639.391868115.9-5.15.125.946.28196985.4-2.62.67.032.95207055.70.70.70.514.552171135.0-8.08.064.061.54227295.5-3.53.511.938.382373215.0-16.016.0256.076.19247416.15.15.125.9509.09257515.24.24.217.5418.18267644.50.50.50.313.642777124.5-7.57.556.962.88287894.4-4.64.621.551.522979144.4-9.69.692.968.833080113.7-7.37.352.966.12318164.6-1.41.41.922.73328285.1-2.92.98.536.363383115.5-5.55.530.850.41348445.41.41.41.934.09358524.92.92.98.5145.45368643.8-0.20.20.04.55378793.2-5.85.833.964.653888133.5-9.59.591.173.43398953.9-1.11.11.221.82

total5.141.5287.346

N=12PERIODOSEMANADEMANDAPMError de PMMADMSEMAPE40124113421431544164574613473482491450115119152105.2-4.84.823.448.3325364.9-1.11.11.218.0635495.2-3.83.814.742.59455135.8-7.37.352.655.77556135.7-7.37.353.856.41657105.8-4.24.217.441.6775885.1-2.92.98.536.4685914.93.93.915.3391.6796014.53.53.512.3350.00106143.8-0.20.20.04.171162173.1-13.913.9193.781.86126343.4-0.60.60.314.581364132.9-10.110.1101.777.56146573.3-3.73.713.452.381566153.8-11.211.2124.774.44166795.0-4.04.016.044.441768115.4-5.65.631.250.76186984.9-3.13.19.538.54197055.30.30.30.15.002071134.6-8.48.470.864.74217295.1-3.93.915.343.522273214.6-16.416.4269.578.17237415.64.64.621.0458.33247514.83.83.814.1375.00257644.20.20.20.04.172677124.1-7.97.962.765.97277894.0-5.05.025.055.562879144.0-10.010.0100.071.432980113.4-7.67.657.568.94308164.3-1.81.83.129.17318284.7-3.33.311.141.673283115.0-6.06.036.054.55338444.90.90.90.822.92348524.52.52.56.3125.00358643.5-0.50.50.312.50368792.9-6.16.137.067.593788133.2-9.89.896.775.64388953.6-1.41.42.028.33

total5.039.9784.945

N=13PERIODOSEMANADEMANDAPMError de PMMADMSEMAPE40124113421431544164574613473482491450115119521015364.5-1.51.52.124.3625494.8-4.24.217.947.01355135.3-7.77.759.259.17456135.2-7.87.860.459.76557105.4-4.64.621.346.1565884.7-3.33.310.941.3575914.53.53.512.5353.8586014.23.23.29.9315.3896143.5-0.50.50.211.541062172.8-14.214.2200.383.26116343.2-0.80.80.721.151264132.7-10.310.3106.279.29136573.1-3.93.915.456.041466153.5-11.511.5131.476.41156794.6-4.44.419.248.721668115.0-6.06.036.054.55176984.5-3.53.512.043.27187054.8-0.20.20.03.081971134.2-8.88.876.967.46207294.7-4.34.318.647.862173214.2-16.816.8281.279.85227415.24.24.217.3415.38237514.43.43.411.5338.46247643.8-0.20.20.03.852577123.8-8.28.267.768.59267893.7-5.35.328.258.972779143.7-10.310.3106.273.632880113.2-7.87.861.671.33298163.9-2.12.14.334.62308284.3-3.73.713.646.153183114.6-6.46.440.858.04328444.50.50.50.313.46338524.22.22.24.6107.69348643.2-0.80.80.619.23358792.7-6.36.339.870.093688132.9-10.110.1101.577.51378953.3-1.71.72.933.85

total5.243.0684.064

N=14PERIODOSEMANADEMANDAPMError de PMMADMSEMAPE40124113421431544164574613473482491450115119521053615494.4-4.64.620.950.79255134.9-8.18.165.162.09356134.9-8.18.166.362.64457105.0-5.05.025.050.0055884.4-3.63.613.345.5465914.23.23.210.3321.4376013.92.92.98.2285.7186143.3-0.70.70.517.86962172.6-14.414.4206.184.45106342.9-1.11.11.126.791164132.5-10.510.5110.380.77126572.9-4.14.117.259.181366153.3-11.711.7137.278.10146794.3-4.74.722.252.381568114.6-6.46.440.457.79166984.2-3.83.814.347.32177054.5-0.50.50.310.001871133.9-9.19.182.369.78197294.4-4.64.621.651.592073213.9-17.117.1291.481.29217414.83.83.814.3378.57227514.13.13.19.4307.14237643.6-0.40.40.210.712477123.5-8.58.572.370.83257893.4-5.65.631.061.902679143.4-10.610.6111.875.512780112.9-8.18.165.173.38288163.6-2.42.45.639.29298284.0-4.04.016.050.003083114.3-6.76.745.161.04318444.20.20.20.05.36328523.91.91.93.492.86338643.0-1.01.01.025.00348792.5-6.56.542.372.223588132.7-10.310.3105.879.12368953.1-1.91.93.738.57

total5.546.7084.361