Estimacion P (21034)

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Año Hp(mm) m Tr=((n+1)/m)

1943 70.00 80.00 1 66.001944 37.00 79.00 2 33.001945 28.00 73.50 3 22.001946 39.00 72.20 4 16.50

1947 44.20 72.00 5 13.201948 42.70 71.70 6 11.001949 26.50 70.00 7 9.431950 3.80 70.00 8 8.251953 40.00 68.50 9 7.331954 56.00 64.20 10 6.601955 46.50 61.00 11 6.001956 38.00 61.00 12 5.501957 40.00 58.80 13 5.081958 61.00 57.80 14 4.711959 42.50 56.00 15 4.401960 52.00 55.70 16 4.131961 45.00 55.30 17 3.881962 40.50 54.80 18 3.671963 36.50 53.00 19 3.471964 39.00 53.00 20 3.301965 61.00 52.00 21 3.141966 35.10 52.00 22 3.001967 68.50 51.30 23 2.871968 50.30 51.00 24 2.751969 53.00 50.30 25 2.641970 64.20 50.00 26 2.541971 39.60 49.80 27 2.441972 40.20 49.00 28 2.361973 53.00 48.80 29 2.281974 37.90 48.60 30 2.201975 34.60 48.50 31 2.131976 55.30 47.60 32 2.061977 51.30 46.50 33 2.001978 58.80 45.50 34 1.941979 54.80 45.00 35 1.891980 48.60 45.00 36 1.831981 48.80 44.50 37 1.781982 55.70 44.20 38 1.741983 35.30 43.70 39 1.691984 44.50 42.70 40 1.651985 43.70 42.50 41 1.611986 40.00 42.00 42 1.571987 47.60 41.00 43 1.53

Hp(mm)Ordenado

8/17/2019 Estimacion P (21034)

2/39

1988 72.20 40.50 44 1.501989 41.00 40.20 45 1.471990 40.00 40.00 46 1.431991 49.00 40.00 47 1.401992 71.70 40.00 48 1.381993 57.80 40.00 49 1.35

1994 48.50 39.60 50 1.321996 45.50 39.00 51 1.291997 31.10 39.00 52 1.272002 51.00 39.00 53 1.252003 72.00 38.00 54 1.222004 52.00 37.90 55 1.202005 36.70 37.00 56 1.182006 70.00 36.70 57 1.162007 42.00 36.50 58 1.142008 73.50 35.30 59 1.12

2009 50.00 35.10 60 1.102010 39.00 34.60 61 1.082011 79.00 31.10 62 1.062012 45.00 28.00 63 1.052013 49.80 26.50 64 1.032014 80.00 3.80 65 1.02

48.41 EVENTO0.02 T (años)

252.10 2.005.00

10.0020.0025.0050.00

100.00500.00

1000.00

µ=x=λ=

((Hp HpT!o"#$a)2)0.5

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0.02 202.83 15087.420.03 169.27 8149.400.05 149.64 5797.980.06 135.72 4034.43

0.08 124.91 2799.920.09 116.09 1970.260.11 108.62 1491.880.12 102.16 1034.280.14 96.46 781.660.15 91.36 737.520.17 86.74 662.710.18 82.53 463.570.20 78.66 394.250.21 75.07 298.180.23 71.73 247.370.24 68.60 166.500.26 65.67 107.500.27 62.90 65.630.29 60.28 53.050.30 57.80 23.050.32 55.44 11.820.33 53.19 1.410.35 51.03 0.070.36 48.97 4.100.38 47.00 10.910.39 45.10 24.020.41 43.27 42.620.42 41.51 56.080.44 39.81 80.780.45 38.17 108.760.47 36.58 142.000.48 35.05 157.590.50 33.56 167.530.52 32.11 179.250.53 30.71 204.250.55 29.34 245.100.56 28.02 271.660.58 26.73 305.310.59 25.47 332.360.61 24.24 340.640.62 23.05 378.370.64 21.88 404.750.65 20.74 410.37

P(Hp ≥ Hp Teorica ) Hp Teorica (mm) (Hp-Hp Teorica )2

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0.67 19.63 435.580.68 18.54 469.090.70 17.48 507.260.71 16.44 555.250.73 15.42 604.320.74 14.42 654.40

0.76 13.44 684.300.77 12.48 703.200.79 11.54 753.940.80 10.62 805.430.82 9.71 800.050.83 8.83 845.260.85 7.95 843.650.86 7.10 876.310.88 6.26 914.730.89 5.43 892.34

0.91 4.61 929.380.92 3.81 947.780.94 3.03 788.110.95 2.25 662.950.97 1.49 625.510.98 0.74 9.37

DE DISEÑO% (&&)33.5677.92111.47145.03155.83189.39222.95300.86334.42

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1943 70.00 80.00 1 66.001944 37.00 79.00 2 33.001945 28.00 73.50 3 22.001946 39.00 72.20 4 16.50

1947 44.20 72.00 5 13.201948 42.70 71.70 6 11.001949 26.50 70.00 7 9.431950 3.80 70.00 8 8.251953 40.00 68.50 9 7.331954 56.00 64.20 10 6.601955 46.50 61.00 11 6.001956 38.00 61.00 12 5.501957 40.00 58.80 13 5.081958 61.00 57.80 14 4.711959 42.50 56.00 15 4.401960 52.00 55.70 16 4.131961 45.00 55.30 17 3.881962 40.50 54.80 18 3.671963 36.50 53.00 19 3.471964 39.00 53.00 20 3.301965 61.00 52.00 21 3.141966 35.10 52.00 22 3.001967 68.50 51.30 23 2.871968 50.30 51.00 24 2.751969 53.00 50.30 25 2.641970 64.20 50.00 26 2.541971 39.60 49.80 27 2.441972 40.20 49.00 28 2.361973 53.00 48.80 29 2.281974 37.90 48.60 30 2.201975 34.60 48.50 31 2.131976 55.30 47.60 32 2.061977 51.30 46.50 33 2.001978 58.80 45.50 34 1.941979 54.80 45.00 35 1.891980 48.60 45.00 36 1.831981 48.80 44.50 37 1.781982 55.70 44.20 38 1.741983 35.30 43.70 39 1.691984 44.50 42.70 40 1.651985 43.70 42.50 41 1.611986 40.00 42.00 42 1.571987 47.60 41.00 43 1.53

Hp(mm)Ordenado

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1988 72.20 40.50 44 1.501989 41.00 40.20 45 1.471990 40.00 40.00 46 1.431991 49.00 40.00 47 1.401992 71.70 40.00 48 1.381993 57.80 40.00 49 1.35

1994 48.50 39.60 50 1.321996 45.50 39.00 51 1.291997 31.10 39.00 52 1.272002 51.00 39.00 53 1.252003 72.00 38.00 54 1.222004 52.00 37.90 55 1.202005 36.70 37.00 56 1.182006 70.00 36.70 57 1.162007 42.00 36.50 58 1.142008 73.50 35.30 59 1.12

2009 50.00 35.10 60 1.102010 39.00 34.60 61 1.082011 79.00 31.10 62 1.062012 45.00 28.00 63 1.052013 49.80 26.50 64 1.032014 80.00 3.80 65 1.02

48.41

13.68 T (años)

3.87 2.0012.52 5.0026.38 10.00

20.0025.0050.00

100.00500.00

1000.00

µ=x=

sx=α=β=

((Hp HpT!o"#$a)2)0.5

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v

0.02 0.98 2.89 2.17 82.660.03 0.97 2.64 1.88 77.130.05 0.95 2.49 1.69 73.710.06 0.94 2.37 1.55 71.19

0.08 0.92 2.27 1.43 69.160.09 0.91 2.19 1.34 67.460.11 0.89 2.12 1.25 65.980.12 0.88 2.05 1.17 64.660.14 0.86 2.00 1.10 63.470.15 0.85 1.94 1.03 62.380.17 0.83 1.89 0.97 61.370.18 0.82 1.85 0.91 60.430.20 0.80 1.80 0.85 59.540.21 0.79 1.76 0.80 58.710.23 0.77 1.72 0.75 57.910.24 0.76 1.68 0.70 57.160.26 0.74 1.65 0.65 56.430.27 0.73 1.61 0.60 55.730.29 0.71 1.58 0.56 55.060.30 0.70 1.55 0.52 54.410.32 0.68 1.51 0.47 53.770.33 0.67 1.48 0.43 53.160.35 0.65 1.45 0.39 52.560.36 0.64 1.42 0.35 51.970.38 0.62 1.39 0.31 51.400.39 0.61 1.36 0.27 50.840.41 0.59 1.34 0.23 50.290.42 0.58 1.31 0.19 49.740.44 0.56 1.28 0.15 49.210.45 0.55 1.26 0.11 48.680.47 0.53 1.23 0.08 48.160.48 0.52 1.20 0.04 47.650.50 0.50 1.18 0.00 47.130.52 0.48 1.15 0.04 46.630.53 0.47 1.13 0.08 46.120.55 0.45 1.10 0.11 45.620.56 0.44 1.08 0.15 45.120.58 0.42 1.05 0.19 44.620.59 0.41 1.03 0.23 44.130.61 0.39 1.00 0.27 43.630.62 0.38 0.98 0.31 43.130.64 0.36 0.95 0.35 42.630.65 0.35 0.93 0.39 42.12

P(Hp ≥ Hp Teorica ) P(Hp ≤ Hp Teorica ) UTHp(mm)Teorica

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0.67 0.33 0.90 0.43 41.620.68 0.32 0.88 0.47 41.110.70 0.30 0.85 0.51 40.590.71 0.29 0.82 0.55 40.070.73 0.27 0.80 0.60 39.540.74 0.26 0.77 0.64 39.00

0.76 0.24 0.75 0.69 38.450.77 0.23 0.72 0.74 37.890.79 0.21 0.69 0.79 37.320.80 0.20 0.66 0.84 36.730.82 0.18 0.63 0.89 36.120.83 0.17 0.60 0.95 35.490.85 0.15 0.57 1.01 34.840.86 0.14 0.54 1.07 34.160.88 0.12 0.51 1.14 33.430.89 0.11 0.47 1.21 32.67

0.91 0.09 0.44 1.29 31.840.92 0.08 0.40 1.38 30.940.94 0.06 0.35 1.48 29.940.95 0.05 0.31 1.59 28.800.97 0.03 0.25 1.74 27.420.98 0.02 0.17 1.94 25.57

EVENTOS DE DISEÑO

' Hp(&&) T!o"#$a

0.50 0.50 1.18 0.00 47.130.20 0.80 1.79 0.84 59.370.10 0.90 2.15 1.28 66.550.05 0.95 2.45 1.65 72.890.04 0.96 2.54 1.75 74.810.02 0.98 2.80 2.05 80.490.01 0.99 3.03 2.33 85.840.00 1.00 3.53 2.88 97.380.00 1.00 3.72 3.09 102.07

%(Hp≥ HpT!o"#$a) %(Hp≤ HpT!o"#$a) T

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7.103.500.051.02

8.0417.9916.1928.5325.323.320.140.330.550.833.662.121.280.874.231.983.141.341.580.951.210.700.240.550.170.010.110.000.401.271.260.390.390.180.180.860.400.391.26

(Hp-Hp Teorica )2

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10/39

1.250.820.350.000.211.00

1.321.232.825.153.525.794.666.479.406.94

10.6113.371.340.640.85

474.12

8/17/2019 Estimacion P (21034)

11/39

8/17/2019 Estimacion P (21034)

12/39

8/17/2019 Estimacion P (21034)

13/39

Año Hp(mm) m Tr ((n+1)/m)

1943 70.00 80.00 1 66.001944 37.00 79.00 2 33.001945 28.00 73.50 3 22.001946 39.00 72.20 4 16.50

1947 44.20 72.00 5 13.201948 42.70 71.70 6 11.001949 26.50 70.00 7 9.431950 3.80 70.00 8 8.251953 40.00 68.50 9 7.331954 56.00 64.20 10 6.601955 46.50 61.00 11 6.001956 38.00 61.00 12 5.501957 40.00 58.80 13 5.081958 61.00 57.80 14 4.711959 42.50 56.00 15 4.401960 52.00 55.70 16 4.131961 45.00 55.30 17 3.881962 40.50 54.80 18 3.671963 36.50 53.00 19 3.471964 39.00 53.00 20 3.301965 61.00 52.00 21 3.141966 35.10 52.00 22 3.001967 68.50 51.30 23 2.871968 50.30 51.00 24 2.751969 53.00 50.30 25 2.641970 64.20 50.00 26 2.541971 39.60 49.80 27 2.441972 40.20 49.00 28 2.361973 53.00 48.80 29 2.281974 37.90 48.60 30 2.201975 34.60 48.50 31 2.131976 55.30 47.60 32 2.061977 51.30 46.50 33 2.001978 58.80 45.50 34 1.941979 54.80 45.00 35 1.891980 48.60 45.00 36 1.831981 48.80 44.50 37 1.781982 55.70 44.20 38 1.741983 35.30 43.70 39 1.691984 44.50 42.70 40 1.651985 43.70 42.50 41 1.611986 40.00 42.00 42 1.571987 47.60 41.00 43 1.53

Hp(mm)Ordenado

8/17/2019 Estimacion P (21034)

14/39

1988 72.20 40.50 44 1.501989 41.00 40.20 45 1.471990 40.00 40.00 46 1.431991 49.00 40.00 47 1.401992 71.70 40.00 48 1.381993 57.80 40.00 49 1.35

1994 48.50 39.60 50 1.321996 45.50 39.00 51 1.291997 31.10 39.00 52 1.272002 51.00 39.00 53 1.252003 72.00 38.00 54 1.222004 52.00 37.90 55 1.202005 36.70 37.00 56 1.182006 70.00 36.70 57 1.162007 42.00 36.50 58 1.142008 73.50 35.30 59 1.12

2009 50.00 35.10 60 1.102010 39.00 34.60 61 1.082011 79.00 31.10 62 1.062012 45.00 28.00 63 1.052013 49.80 26.50 64 1.032014 80.00 3.80 65 1.02

48.41 EVENTOS13.68 T (años)10.67 2.00

42.26 5.00

27.72 10.0020.0025.0050.00

100.00500.001000.00

µ=x=sx=α= ν=

((Hp HpT!o"#$a)2)0.5

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0.02 0.98 86.87 47.210.03 0.97 79.39 0.150.05 0.95 74.98 2.200.06 0.94 71.83 0.14

0.08 0.92 69.36 6.950.09 0.91 67.33 19.080.11 0.89 65.60 19.360.12 0.88 64.09 34.980.14 0.86 62.74 33.190.15 0.85 61.52 7.170.17 0.83 60.41 0.350.18 0.82 59.39 2.590.20 0.80 58.44 0.130.21 0.79 57.55 0.060.23 0.77 56.72 0.510.24 0.76 55.93 0.050.26 0.74 55.18 0.020.27 0.73 54.46 0.110.29 0.71 53.78 0.610.30 0.70 53.12 0.020.32 0.68 52.49 0.240.33 0.67 51.89 0.010.35 0.65 51.30 0.000.36 0.64 50.73 0.070.38 0.62 50.17 0.020.39 0.61 49.63 0.130.41 0.59 49.11 0.480.42 0.58 48.59 0.170.44 0.56 48.09 0.500.45 0.55 47.60 1.010.47 0.53 47.11 1.930.48 0.52 46.63 0.930.50 0.50 46.17 0.110.52 0.48 45.70 0.040.53 0.47 45.24 0.060.55 0.45 44.79 0.040.56 0.44 44.34 0.030.58 0.42 43.90 0.090.59 0.41 43.45 0.060.61 0.39 43.01 0.100.62 0.38 42.57 0.010.64 0.36 42.13 0.020.65 0.35 41.69 0.48

P(Hp ≥ Hp Teorica ) P(Hp ≤ Hp Teorica )Hp(mm)Teorica

(Hp-Hp Teorica )2

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0.67 0.33 41.25 0.570.68 0.32 40.81 0.370.70 0.30 40.36 0.130.71 0.29 39.92 0.010.73 0.27 39.46 0.290.74 0.26 39.00 0.99

0.76 0.24 38.54 1.130.77 0.23 38.06 0.880.79 0.21 37.58 2.030.80 0.20 37.08 3.700.82 0.18 36.56 2.060.83 0.17 36.03 3.480.85 0.15 35.48 2.310.86 0.14 34.90 3.240.88 0.12 34.29 4.890.89 0.11 33.63 2.78

0.91 0.09 32.92 4.730.92 0.08 32.14 6.040.94 0.06 31.26 0.020.95 0.05 30.22 4.910.97 0.03 28.90 5.760.98 0.02 26.97 536.91

DE DISEÑO% (&&)46.1758.2666.2673.9476.3883.8891.33

108.54115.94

8/17/2019 Estimacion P (21034)

17/39


1943 70.00 80.00 4.38 1 66.001944 37.00 79.00 4.37 2 33.001945 28.00 73.50 4.30 3 22.001946 39.00 72.20 4.28 4 16.501947 44.20 72.00 4.28 5 13.201948 42.70 71.70 4.27 6 11.001949 26.50 70.00 4.25 7 9.431950 3.80 70.00 4.25 8 8.251953 40.00 68.50 4.23 9 7.331954 56.00 64.20 4.16 10 6.601955 46.50 61.00 4.11 11 6.001956 38.00 61.00 4.11 12 5.501957 40.00 58.80 4.07 13 5.081958 61.00 57.80 4.06 14 4.711959 42.50 56.00 4.03 15 4.401960 52.00 55.70 4.02 16 4.131961 45.00 55.30 4.01 17 3.881962 40.50 54.80 4.00 18 3.671963 36.50 53.00 3.97 19 3.471964 39.00 53.00 3.97 20 3.301965 61.00 52.00 3.95 21 3.141966 35.10 52.00 3.95 22 3.001967 68.50 51.30 3.94 23 2.871968 50.30 51.00 3.93 24 2.75

1969 53.00 50.30 3.92 25 2.641970 64.20 50.00 3.91 26 2.541971 39.60 49.80 3.91 27 2.441972 40.20 49.00 3.89 28 2.361973 53.00 48.80 3.89 29 2.281974 37.90 48.60 3.88 30 2.201975 34.60 48.50 3.88 31 2.131976 55.30 47.60 3.86 32 2.061977 51.30 46.50 3.84 33 2.001978 58.80 45.50 3.82 34 1.94

1979 54.80 45.00 3.81 35 1.891980 48.60 45.00 3.81 36 1.831981 48.80 44.50 3.80 37 1.781982 55.70 44.20 3.79 38 1.741983 35.30 43.70 3.78 39 1.691984 44.50 42.70 3.75 40 1.651985 43.70 42.50 3.75 41 1.611986 40.00 42.00 3.74 42 1.571987 47.60 41.00 3.71 43 1.53

Hp(mm)Ordenado

ln(Hp) (mm)Ordenado

8/17/2019 Estimacion P (21034)

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1988 72.20 40.50 3.70 44 1.501989 41.00 40.20 3.69 45 1.471990 40.00 40.00 3.69 46 1.431991 49.00 40.00 3.69 47 1.401992 71.70 40.00 3.69 48 1.381993 57.80 40.00 3.69 49 1.35

1994 48.50 39.60 3.68 50 1.321996 45.50 39.00 3.66 51 1.291997 31.10 39.00 3.66 52 1.272002 51.00 39.00 3.66 53 1.252003 72.00 38.00 3.64 54 1.222004 52.00 37.90 3.63 55 1.202005 36.70 37.00 3.61 56 1.182006 70.00 36.70 3.60 57 1.162007 42.00 36.50 3.60 58 1.142008 73.50 35.30 3.56 59 1.12

2009 50.00 35.10 3.56 60 1.102010 39.00 34.60 3.54 61 1.082011 79.00 31.10 3.44 62 1.062012 45.00 28.00 3.33 63 1.052013 49.80 26.50 3.28 64 1.032014 80.00 3.80 1.34 65 1.02

3.82

0.40 T (años)

54.87 2.005.00

10.0020.0025.0050.00

100.00500.001000.00

*(µ)= *(x)=

*(sx)=

((Hp HpT!o"#$a)2)0.5

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v

0.02 0.98 2.89 2.17 108.800.03 0.97 2.64 1.88 96.910.05 0.95 2.49 1.69 89.980.06 0.94 2.37 1.55 85.050.08 0.92 2.27 1.43 81.220.09 0.91 2.19 1.34 78.070.11 0.89 2.12 1.25 75.390.12 0.88 2.05 1.17 73.050.14 0.86 2.00 1.10 70.970.15 0.85 1.94 1.03 69.100.17 0.83 1.89 0.97 67.400.18 0.82 1.85 0.91 65.830.20 0.80 1.80 0.85 64.370.21 0.79 1.76 0.80 63.010.23 0.77 1.72 0.75 61.730.24 0.76 1.68 0.70 60.530.26 0.74 1.65 0.65 59.380.27 0.73 1.61 0.60 58.300.29 0.71 1.58 0.56 57.260.30 0.70 1.55 0.52 56.260.32 0.68 1.51 0.47 55.310.33 0.67 1.48 0.43 54.380.35 0.65 1.45 0.39 53.490.36 0.64 1.42 0.35 52.63

0.38 0.62 1.39 0.31 51.800.39 0.61 1.36 0.27 50.980.41 0.59 1.34 0.23 50.190.42 0.58 1.31 0.19 49.420.44 0.56 1.28 0.15 48.670.45 0.55 1.26 0.11 47.930.47 0.53 1.23 0.08 47.210.48 0.52 1.20 0.04 46.500.50 0.50 1.18 0.00 45.800.52 0.48 1.15 0.04 45.11

0.53 0.47 1.13 0.08 44.430.55 0.45 1.10 0.11 43.760.56 0.44 1.08 0.15 43.100.58 0.42 1.05 0.19 42.450.59 0.41 1.03 0.23 41.800.61 0.39 1.00 0.27 41.150.62 0.38 0.98 0.31 40.510.64 0.36 0.95 0.35 39.880.65 0.35 0.93 0.39 39.24


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0.67 0.33 0.90 0.43 38.610.68 0.32 0.88 0.47 37.970.70 0.30 0.85 0.51 37.340.71 0.29 0.82 0.55 36.700.73 0.27 0.80 0.60 36.060.74 0.26 0.77 0.64 35.41

0.76 0.24 0.75 0.69 34.760.77 0.23 0.72 0.74 34.100.79 0.21 0.69 0.79 33.440.80 0.20 0.66 0.84 32.750.82 0.18 0.63 0.89 32.060.83 0.17 0.60 0.95 31.350.85 0.15 0.57 1.01 30.620.86 0.14 0.54 1.07 29.860.88 0.12 0.51 1.14 29.070.89 0.11 0.47 1.21 28.24

0.91 0.09 0.44 1.29 27.370.92 0.08 0.40 1.38 26.420.94 0.06 0.35 1.48 25.390.95 0.05 0.31 1.59 24.240.97 0.03 0.25 1.74 22.870.98 0.02 0.17 1.94 21.10

EVENTOS DE DISEÑO

' Hp(&&) T!o"#$a

0.50 0.50 1.18 0.00 45.800.20 0.80 1.79 0.84 64.090.10 0.90 2.15 1.28 76.410.05 0.95 2.45 1.65 88.350.04 0.96 2.54 1.75 92.170.02 0.98 2.80 2.05 104.030.01 0.99 3.03 2.33 115.990.00 1.00 3.53 2.88 144.590.00 1.00 3.72 3.09 157.36


8/17/2019 Estimacion P (21034)

21/39

829.59320.83271.63165.2584.9840.5429.029.306.1224.0340.9123.2931.0227.1432.8723.3016.6812.2318.1310.6410.935.694.812.67

2.240.970.150.180.020.451.681.220.490.15

0.321.531.963.073.622.393.954.513.09

(Hp-Hp Teorica )2

8/17/2019 Estimacion P (21034)

22/39

3.584.967.0910.8915.5321.03

23.4023.9730.9739.0035.2842.9240.7546.8055.2149.81

59.8366.8532.5614.1613.14

299.45

8/17/2019 Estimacion P (21034)

23/39

8/17/2019 Estimacion P (21034)

24/39

8/17/2019 Estimacion P (21034)

25/39


1943 70.00 80.00 1 66.001944 37.00 79.00 2 33.001945 28.00 73.50 3 22.001946 39.00 72.20 4 16.50

1947 44.20 72.00 5 13.201948 42.70 71.70 6 11.001949 26.50 70.00 7 9.431950 3.80 70.00 8 8.251953 40.00 68.50 9 7.331954 56.00 64.20 10 6.601955 46.50 61.00 11 6.001956 38.00 61.00 12 5.501957 40.00 58.80 13 5.081958 61.00 57.80 14 4.711959 42.50 56.00 15 4.401960 52.00 55.70 16 4.131961 45.00 55.30 17 3.881962 40.50 54.80 18 3.671963 36.50 53.00 19 3.471964 39.00 53.00 20 3.301965 61.00 52.00 21 3.141966 35.10 52.00 22 3.001967 68.50 51.30 23 2.871968 50.30 51.00 24 2.751969 53.00 50.30 25 2.641970 64.20 50.00 26 2.541971 39.60 49.80 27 2.441972 40.20 49.00 28 2.361973 53.00 48.80 29 2.281974 37.90 48.60 30 2.201975 34.60 48.50 31 2.131976 55.30 47.60 32 2.061977 51.30 46.50 33 2.001978 58.80 45.50 34 1.941979 54.80 45.00 35 1.891980 48.60 45.00 36 1.831981 48.80 44.50 37 1.781982 55.70 44.20 38 1.741983 35.30 43.70 39 1.691984 44.50 42.70 40 1.651985 43.70 42.50 41 1.611986 40.00 42.00 42 1.571987 47.60 41.00 43 1.53

Hp(mm)Ordenado

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1988 72.20 40.50 44 1.501989 41.00 40.20 45 1.471990 40.00 40.00 46 1.431991 49.00 40.00 47 1.401992 71.70 40.00 48 1.381993 57.80 40.00 49 1.35

1994 48.50 39.60 50 1.321996 45.50 39.00 51 1.291997 31.10 39.00 52 1.272002 51.00 39.00 53 1.252003 72.00 38.00 54 1.222004 52.00 37.90 55 1.202005 36.70 37.00 56 1.182006 70.00 36.70 57 1.162007 42.00 36.50 58 1.142008 73.50 35.30 59 1.12

2009 50.00 35.10 60 1.102010 39.00 34.60 61 1.082011 79.00 31.10 62 1.062012 45.00 28.00 63 1.052013 49.80 26.50 64 1.032014 80.00 3.80 65 1.02

48.41

13.68 T (años)

0.12 2.000.85 5.00

262.08 10.00173.10 20.0026.64 25.00

50.00100.00500.00

1000.00

µ=x=

sx=γ =α=β=x0=

((Hp HpT!o"#$a)2)0.5

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v

0.02 0.98 2.89 2.17 79.090.03 0.97 2.64 1.88 74.790.05 0.95 2.49 1.69 72.060.06 0.94 2.37 1.55 70.01

0.08 0.92 2.27 1.43 68.330.09 0.91 2.19 1.34 66.890.11 0.89 2.12 1.25 65.630.12 0.88 2.05 1.17 64.500.14 0.86 2.00 1.10 63.470.15 0.85 1.94 1.03 62.510.17 0.83 1.89 0.97 61.620.18 0.82 1.85 0.91 60.780.20 0.80 1.80 0.85 59.990.21 0.79 1.76 0.80 59.230.23 0.77 1.72 0.75 58.510.24 0.76 1.68 0.70 57.810.26 0.74 1.65 0.65 57.140.27 0.73 1.61 0.60 56.490.29 0.71 1.58 0.56 55.860.30 0.70 1.55 0.52 55.250.32 0.68 1.51 0.47 54.650.33 0.67 1.48 0.43 54.070.35 0.65 1.45 0.39 53.490.36 0.64 1.42 0.35 52.930.38 0.62 1.39 0.31 52.370.39 0.61 1.36 0.27 51.820.41 0.59 1.34 0.23 51.280.42 0.58 1.31 0.19 50.750.44 0.56 1.28 0.15 50.220.45 0.55 1.26 0.11 49.690.47 0.53 1.23 0.08 49.170.48 0.52 1.20 0.04 48.650.50 0.50 1.18 0.00 48.130.52 0.48 1.15 0.04 47.610.53 0.47 1.13 0.08 47.100.55 0.45 1.10 0.11 46.580.56 0.44 1.08 0.15 46.060.58 0.42 1.05 0.19 45.540.59 0.41 1.03 0.23 45.020.61 0.39 1.00 0.27 44.490.62 0.38 0.98 0.31 43.960.64 0.36 0.95 0.35 43.430.65 0.35 0.93 0.39 42.88


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0.67 0.33 0.90 0.43 42.340.68 0.32 0.88 0.47 41.780.70 0.30 0.85 0.51 41.210.71 0.29 0.82 0.55 40.640.73 0.27 0.80 0.60 40.050.74 0.26 0.77 0.64 39.45

0.76 0.24 0.75 0.69 38.830.77 0.23 0.72 0.74 38.190.79 0.21 0.69 0.79 37.540.80 0.20 0.66 0.84 36.860.82 0.18 0.63 0.89 36.150.83 0.17 0.60 0.95 35.410.85 0.15 0.57 1.01 34.630.86 0.14 0.54 1.07 33.810.88 0.12 0.51 1.14 32.930.89 0.11 0.47 1.21 31.99

0.91 0.09 0.44 1.29 30.970.92 0.08 0.40 1.38 29.830.94 0.06 0.35 1.48 28.550.95 0.05 0.31 1.59 27.060.97 0.03 0.25 1.74 25.210.98 0.02 0.17 1.94 22.66

EVENTOS DE DISEÑO

' Hp(&&) T!o"#$a

0.50 0.50 1.18 0.00 48.130.20 0.80 1.79 0.84 59.830.10 0.90 2.15 1.28 66.120.05 0.95 2.45 1.65 71.390.04 0.96 2.54 1.75 72.940.02 0.98 2.80 2.05 77.420.01 0.99 3.03 2.33 81.490.00 1.00 3.53 2.88 89.860.00 1.00 3.72 3.09 93.13


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0.8317.702.064.82

13.4923.1019.0730.2425.332.850.390.051.412.056.304.473.402.878.205.067.034.274.803.714.293.332.203.062.011.190.451.102.664.474.402.492.441.801.743.212.142.033.55

(Hp-Hp Teorica )2

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3.372.491.470.410.000.31

0.600.652.154.603.436.215.618.3512.7110.93

17.0722.716.490.891.67

355.61

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Año Hp(mm) m Tr ((n+1)/m)

1943 70.00 80.00 1 66.001944 37.00 79.00 2 33.001945 28.00 73.50 3 22.001946 39.00 72.20 4 16.50

1947 44.20 72.00 5 13.201948 42.70 71.70 6 11.001949 26.50 70.00 7 9.431950 3.80 70.00 8 8.251953 40.00 68.50 9 7.331954 56.00 64.20 10 6.601955 46.50 61.00 11 6.001956 38.00 61.00 12 5.501957 40.00 58.80 13 5.081958 61.00 57.80 14 4.711959 42.50 56.00 15 4.401960 52.00 55.70 16 4.131961 45.00 55.30 17 3.881962 40.50 54.80 18 3.671963 36.50 53.00 19 3.471964 39.00 53.00 20 3.301965 61.00 52.00 21 3.141966 35.10 52.00 22 3.001967 68.50 51.30 23 2.871968 50.30 51.00 24 2.751969 53.00 50.30 25 2.641970 64.20 50.00 26 2.541971 39.60 49.80 27 2.441972 40.20 49.00 28 2.361973 53.00 48.80 29 2.281974 37.90 48.60 30 2.201975 34.60 48.50 31 2.131976 55.30 47.60 32 2.061977 51.30 46.50 33 2.001978 58.80 45.50 34 1.941979 54.80 45.00 35 1.891980 48.60 45.00 36 1.831981 48.80 44.50 37 1.781982 55.70 44.20 38 1.741983 35.30 43.70 39 1.691984 44.50 42.70 40 1.651985 43.70 42.50 41 1.611986 40.00 42.00 42 1.571987 47.60 41.00 43 1.53

Hp(mm)Ordenado

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1988 72.20 40.50 44 1.501989 41.00 40.20 45 1.471990 40.00 40.00 46 1.431991 49.00 40.00 47 1.401992 71.70 40.00 48 1.381993 57.80 40.00 49 1.35

1994 48.50 39.60 50 1.321996 45.50 39.00 51 1.291997 31.10 39.00 52 1.272002 51.00 39.00 53 1.252003 72.00 38.00 54 1.222004 52.00 37.90 55 1.202005 36.70 37.00 56 1.182006 70.00 36.70 57 1.162007 42.00 36.50 58 1.142008 73.50 35.30 59 1.12

2009 50.00 35.10 60 1.102010 39.00 34.60 61 1.082011 79.00 31.10 62 1.062012 45.00 28.00 63 1.052013 49.80 26.50 64 1.032014 80.00 3.80 65 1.02

48.41 EVENTOS0.55 T (años)

2750.58 2.00110.47 5.00

$= 11.140 10.0042.246 20.0027.28 25.00

50.00100.00500.001000.00

µ=x=Σx#+*=Σ,#%#=Σ,#2=

a=((Hp HpT!o"#$a)2)0.5

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Xi XiPi

0.98 4.18 334.56 17.49 88.830.97 3.48 275.01 12.12 81.030.95 3.07 225.49 9.41 76.420.94 2.77 200.16 7.69 73.13

0.92 2.54 182.96 6.46 70.550.91 2.35 168.54 5.53 68.430.89 2.19 153.17 4.79 66.620.88 2.05 143.24 4.19 65.040.86 1.92 131.52 3.69 63.630.85 1.81 115.95 3.26 62.370.83 1.70 103.82 2.90 61.210.82 1.61 97.97 2.58 60.140.80 1.52 89.20 2.30 59.150.79 1.43 82.87 2.06 58.220.77 1.36 75.91 1.84 57.350.76 1.28 71.38 1.64 56.520.74 1.21 66.98 1.47 55.740.73 1.14 62.71 1.31 54.990.71 1.08 57.25 1.17 54.280.70 1.02 54.00 1.04 53.600.68 0.96 49.91 0.92 52.940.67 0.90 46.94 0.81 52.300.65 0.85 43.48 0.72 51.690.64 0.79 40.50 0.63 51.090.62 0.74 37.33 0.55 50.510.61 0.69 34.58 0.48 49.950.59 0.64 31.99 0.41 49.400.58 0.59 29.11 0.35 48.860.56 0.55 26.69 0.30 48.340.55 0.50 24.33 0.25 47.820.53 0.46 22.08 0.21 47.320.52 0.41 19.54 0.17 46.820.50 0.37 17.04 0.13 46.330.48 0.32 14.70 0.10 45.850.47 0.28 12.61 0.08 45.370.45 0.24 10.70 0.06 44.890.44 0.20 8.70 0.04 44.430.42 0.15 6.80 0.02 43.960.41 0.11 4.91 0.01 43.500.39 0.07 3.03 0.01 43.040.38 0.03 1.26 0.00 42.580.36 0.01 0.48 0.00 42.120.35 0.05 2.16 0.00 41.66

P(Hp ≤ Hp Teorica ) Xi2Hp(mm)Teorica

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0.33 0.09 3.81 0.01 41.200.32 0.14 5.45 0.02 40.740.30 0.18 7.09 0.03 40.270.29 0.22 8.77 0.05 39.800.27 0.26 10.47 0.07 39.330.26 0.30 12.19 0.09 38.85

0.24 0.35 13.80 0.12 38.360.23 0.39 15.33 0.15 37.870.21 0.44 17.11 0.19 37.360.20 0.49 18.93 0.24 36.840.18 0.53 20.27 0.28 36.300.17 0.58 22.10 0.34 35.750.15 0.64 23.50 0.40 35.170.14 0.69 25.30 0.48 34.570.12 0.75 27.26 0.56 33.930.11 0.81 28.53 0.65 33.24

0.09 0.87 30.70 0.76 32.500.08 0.95 32.80 0.90 31.690.06 1.03 32.06 1.06 30.760.05 1.13 31.60 1.27 29.680.03 1.25 33.17 1.57 28.300.02 1.43 5.44 2.05 26.29

DE DISEÑO% (&&)46.3358.9667.3175.3377.8885.7193.49111.46119.19

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78.024.108.530.86

2.0910.6811.4124.5923.673.370.040.740.120.171.810.670.190.041.640.360.880.090.150.010.050.000.160.020.210.601.400.610.030.120.130.010.010.060.040.110.010.010.43

(Hp-Hp Teorica )2

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0.490.290.070.040.451.32

1.531.282.694.672.884.623.344.556.624.23

6.748.480.112.813.25

505.69

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D#s-"# /$# * E""o" Expo*!*$#a 252.10

a&&a 2 pa" &!-"os 26.38/& ! 27.72

o *o"&a 54.87%!a"so* III 26.64

Nas 27.28

26.38

Documents

Estimacion P (21034)