Modelo Dolarizacion

7/23/2019 Modelo Dolarizacion

1/47

Periodo

IPC W M1

2000 2000Enero 41.48 86.63 1083.50Febrero 45.64 86.63 1065.20

Marzo 49.09 86.63 993.40

Abril 54.11 106.40 949.70

Mayo 56.89 102.43 805.40

Junio 59.91 82.42 751.80

Julio 61.33 95.25 670.40

Agosto 62.17 100.20 674.70

Setie!bre 64.45 85.38 731.60

"#tubre 66.19 67.55 699.00

$o%ie!bre 67.62 62.13 732.80

&i#ie!bre 69.29 60.65 706.20

2001 2001Enero 74.12 125.25 1430.90Febrero 76.27 125.25 1495.80

Marzo 77.95 125.25 1632.70

Abril 79.29 125.25 1681.70

Mayo 79.42 125.25 1735.20

Junio 79.80 125.25 1726.20

Julio 79.99 125.25 1632.20

Agosto 80.34 125.25 1725.00

Setie!bre 81.98 125.25 1735.40

"#tubre 82.95 125.25 1820.90

$o%ie!bre 84.27 125.25 1917.60

&i#ie!bre 84.84 125.25 1976.10

2002 2002 Enero 86.37 138.20 2020.50 Febrero 87.29 138.20 2040.20

Marzo 88.27 138.20 2017.30

Abril 89.59 138.20 2127.50

Mayo 90.03 138.20 2196.90

Junio 90.37 138.20 2216.80 Julio 90.31 138.20 2218.20

Agosto 90.71 138.20 2220.00

Setie!bre 91.23 138.20 2195.90

"#tubre 91.82 138.20 2193.60

$o%ie!bre 92.46 138.20 2210.60

&i#ie!bre 92.77 138.15 2344.90

2003 2003 Enero 95.08 158.11 2140.40

Indice de Preciosal Consumidor

IPC (base2004=100)

Salario Nominal(dlares)

Oer!a Mone!aria M1(millones de dlares)


2/47

95.81 158.11 1986.00

96.35 158.11 2051.90

97.28 158.11 2079.60

97.46 158.11 2121.40

97.25 158.11 2066.90

97.29 158.11 2158.70

97.35 158.11 2232.6098.12 158.11 2200.50

98.12 158.11 2238.10

98.45 158.11 2369.50

98.41 158.11 2351.00

2004 98.81 166.13 2459.4099.49 166.10 2478.30

100.18 166.10 2502.20

100.84 166.10 2441.10

100.36 166.10 2564.20

100.05 166.10 2576.3099.43 166.10 2553.90

99.46 166.10 2625.30

99.69 166.10 2707.80

99.97 166.10 2720.50

100.38 166.10 2790.90

100.32 166.14 2965.30

200" 100.57 174.89 2913.20100.84 174.89 2969.80

101.10 174.89 3076.70

101.95 174.89 3176.90

102.13 174.89 3154.90

102.20 174.89 3285.70

102.04 174.89 3327.60

101.89 174.89 3269.70

102.62 174.89 3247.90

102.98 174.89 3289.70

103.16 174.89 3403.30

103.46 174.90 3704.20

200# 2006Enero 103.96 186.60 3561.80 Febrero 104.69 186.60 3626.30

Marzo 105.38 186.60 3757.50

Abril 105.45 186.60 3847.80

Mayo 105.30 186.60 3902.40

Junio 105.06 186.60 4017.10

Julio 105.09 186.60 3918.80

Agosto 105.32 186.60 4060.20

Setie!bre 105.92 186.60 4055.90

"#tubre 106.29 186.60 3977.10

Febrero

Marzo

Abril

Mayo

Junio

Julio

Agosto Setie!bre

"#tubre

$o%ie!bre

&i#ie!bre

2004 Enero

Febrero

Marzo

Abril

Mayo

Junio Julio

Agosto

Setie!bre

"#tubre

$o%ie!bre

&i#ie!bre

2005Enero

Febrero

Marzo

Abril

Mayo

Junio

Julio

Agosto

Setie!bre

"#tubre

$o%ie!bre

&i#ie!bre


3/47

$o%ie!bre 106.47 186.60 4159.70

&i#ie!bre 106.43 186.60 4344.10

200$ 2007Enero 106.75 198.26 5969.03 Febrero 106.82 198.26 5916.81

Marzo 106.92 198.26 5971.11

Abril 106.91 198.26 6028.08

Mayo 106.95 198.26 6083.24 Junio 107.36 198.26 6089.11

Julio 107.81 198.26 6165.51

Agosto 107.89 198.26 6327.99

Setie!bre 108.65 198.26 6276.31

"#tubre 108.80 198.26 6362.57

$o%ie!bre 109.34 198.26 6523.99

&i#ie!bre 109.97 198.26 7009.16

200% 2008Enero 111.22 233.13 6896.24 Febrero 112.27 233.13 6814.29

Marzo 113.93 233.13 6966.05 Abril 115.66 233.13 7134.65

Mayo 116.88 233.13 7304.08

Junio 117.76 233.13 7313.97

Julio 118.45 233.13 7553.38

Agosto 118.70 233.13 7807.73

Setie!bre 119.48 233.13 7783.38

"#tubre 119.52 233.13 7807.90

$o%ie!bre 119.33 233.13 8092.90

&i#ie!bre 119.68 233.13 8880.18

200& 2009Enero 120.52 254.21 8243.95 Febrero 121.09 254.21 8082.41

Marzo 122.41 254.21 8096.05

Abril 123.21 254.21 8103.91

Mayo 123.20 254.21 8153.80

Junio 123.10 254.21 8113.08

Julio 123.01 254.21 8149.70

Agosto 122.65 254.21 8201.42

Setie!bre 123.41 254.21 8029.51

"#tubre 123.71 254.21 8189.50

$o%ie!bre 124.12 254.21 8622.67

&i#ie!bre 124.84 254.21 9215.08

2010 2010Enero 125.87 279.85 8933.58 Febrero 126.30 279.85 9036.98

Marzo 126.51 279.85 9255.75

Abril 127.16 279.85 9228.31

Mayo 127.18 279.85 9372.36

Junio 127.17 279.85 9350.55

Julio 127.20 279.85 9517.83


4/47

Agosto 127.33 279.85 9777.80

Setie!bre 127.66 279.85 9795.06

"#tubre 127.99 279.85 9970.48

$o%ie!bre 128.33 279.85 10155.35

&i#ie!bre 128.99 279.85 10776.11

2011 2011 Enero 129.87 307.83 10442.46

Febrero 130.59 307.83 10539.79 Marzo 131.03 307.83 10877.90

Abril 132.10 307.83 10768.36

Mayo 132.56 307.83 10892.41

Junio 132.22 307.83 11074.81

Julio 132.85 307.83 11280.38

Agosto 133.49 307.83 11331.80

Setie!bre 134.55 307.83 11233.55

"#tubre 135.02 307.83 11294.03

$o%ie!bre 135.43 307.83 11247.79

&i#ie!bre 135.97 307.83 12092.972012 2012Enero 136.74 340.47 11915.69

Febrero 137.80 340.47 11895.74

Marzo 139.05 340.47 12443.83

Abril 139.26 340.47 12298.02

Mayo 138.99 340.47 12537.27

Junio 139.24 340.47 12423.70

Julio 139.60 340.47 12405.68

Agosto 140.00 340.47 12512.03

Setie!bre 141.58 340.47 12542.09

"#tubre 141.70 340.47 12853.09

$o%ie!bre 141.89 340.47 13336.64

&i#ie!bre 141.63 340.47 14511.62

2013 2013Enero 142.34 370.82 14003.54 Febrero 142.61 370.82 13992.34

Marzo 143.23 370.82 14111.17

Abril 143.49 370.82 14072.45

Mayo 143.18 370.82 14500.44

Junio 142.97 370.82 14184.46

IPC ' uen!e CP*+ series es!adis!icasW' Salario Minimo ,i!al uen!e' -anco Cen!ral del cuador. inormacion es!adis!ica mensualM1' uen!e -anco Cen!ral del cuador. inormacion es!adis!ica mensual (base mone!aria/desi!os a' uen!e -anco Cen!ral del cuador. inormacion es!adis!ica mensual (C+5 *MO67I8*CI9:' Indice de !io de cambio real ren!e a 1% socios comerciales; uen!e CP*+I*' uen!e CP*l series es!adis!icas


5/47

: I*

145.70 211.38

207.80 194.46

184.50 181.95

158.80 164.76 169.21

188.60 154.95 174.59

178.30 148.11 170.33

235.60 144.47 176.51

548.00 141.91 180.94

249.00 136.72 168.74

336.50 132.94 190.09

269.50 130.07 188.00

284.60 127.28 188.46

222.60 118.40 172.80

253.30 115.31 180.32

302.30 112.24 201.45

236.00 110.08 206.96

372.10 109.91 185.86

255.40 109.29 186.90

250.70 108.64 179.45

299.30 109.09 205.02

290.10 107.00 198.59

288.00 105.40 203.37

342.20 103.73 203.09

373.90 103.11 203.56

170.70 99.56 197.77

279.00 97.26 189.14

219.70 96.69 211.72

346.90 96.43 209.83

374.80 95.91 210.66

249.00 94.87 224.19198.50 94.58 196.90

211.90 93.25 193.50

324.20 91.99 205.66

184.80 90.81 225.28

349.40 91.86 202.06

1161.30 92.33 221.00

380.80 90.50 207.86


6/47

398.40 90.42 198.36

276.60 90.59 237.38

302.00 90.75 244.82

494.10 92.14 217.26

394.40 92.68 215.23

372.00 92.30 242.53

460.30 91.95 232.08438.70 92.14 211.78

413.10 93.12 236.10

507.10 93.03 224.89

645.20 94.26 242.47

277.70 95.77 201.01

410.20 95.22 218.85

351.40 94.93 237.08

373.10 94.48 269.38

440.50 93.97 229.42

340.80 94.58 237.98398.20 95.66 231.41

512.90 95.96 240.16

375.60 96.46 210.27

358.70 97.26 240.53

417.90 98.79 244.30

1126.00 99.90 267.25

365.17 99.91 234.26

360.20 100.41 222.41

502.30 100.35 253.18

417.72 100.34 320.29

542.52 100.26 265.38

398.28 99.79 265.01

447.32 99.85 259.70

588.42 100.60 277.46

430.69 100.81 295.98

453.78 99.85 257.64

442.77 99.23 269.84

992.91 98.62 278.37

253.86 100.52 272.97

444.11 100.33 222.01

504.92 100.01 295.92

418.88 100.86 246.28

512.53 101.58 294.63

444.07 101.03 286.93

425.69 101.71 276.30

586.71 102.45 275.35

344.70 101.70 303.87

492.22 101.35 304.91


7/47

498.74 101.95 311.16

1172.27 102.76 307.79

299.72 103.03 314.96

531.70 103.71 285.98

418.33 104.47 305.52

515.01 105.96 279.62

489.79 107.26 327.93484.04 107.54 299.44

645.08 107.85 329.05

774.26 107.24 325.63

715.96 107.47 325.04

645.52 109.34 384.64

600.30 110.24 331.51

1128.34 110.06 341.26

710.01 110.95 369.60

948.77 111.65 262.98

974.80 112.59 335.591175.66 112.36 321.04

1013.47 111.55 309.36

1030.40 111.63 311.92

1277.28 111.78 323.20

1334.80 110.26 361.67

1134.58 107.67 319.19

1414.67 103.54 315.39

1167.14 101.89 320.72

2231.60 101.90 337.93

615.39 99.93 334.65

952.73 97.89 256.38

1135.06 97.49 333.83

1353.14 98.62 318.99

898.49 100.54 320.54

1134.04 102.23 301.33

1276.11 102.76 342.96

1171.86 103.92 294.53

1089.75 104.27 312.59

1365.71 105.36 330.02

1267.79 105.55 295.57

1957.88 104.41 339.75

699.09 100.18 349.99

1017.14 99.04 321.10

1118.67 99.66 384.02

1356.78 99.69 374.88

1371.14 98.37 363.42

1234.38 98.31 366.07

1254.61 99.60 347.39


8/47

1429.12 100.44 332.96

1013.53 101.01

1552.37 102.32

1388.40 101.74

2315.09 100.98

828.47 101.15

1347.34 101.591663.39 102.37

1462.49 103.26

1587.67 103.32

1414.03 103.65

1435.02 104.06

1500.07 103.66

1373.17 101.72

1401.59 101.11

1755.58 100.77

2350.99 99.811407.76 100.16

1390.97 100.80

1765.78 100.28

1670.90 100.49

1645.31 99.72

1668.10 98.99

1477.56 98.97

1784.90 99.36

1471.83 99.42

1783.35 99.76

1932.75 99.14

2730.51 99.83

1319.40 99.99

1795.92 98.67

1838.96 97.56

2045.46 97.70

1751.31 97.78

1897.87 97.59

la is!a))


9/47

Cuadro 1. Pruebas de raz unitaria y de estacionariedad.

Estadistica

Variable ADF PP KPSS

IPC C y TD -8.21* -18.59* 0.22* I(1) o I(0)

IPC C I(0

W C y TD I(0)

M1 C y TD I(1)

M1 C I(0

G C y TD I(0)

Q C I(0)

I!dica rec"a#o de la "i$otesis !%la a %! !i&el de si'!ica!cia de 00*

Es$ecicaci

o!

+rde! de

i!te'racio!,o- .ai#

/!itaria

,o- .ai#

/!itaria

,o-

Estacio!ariedad


10/47

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

Inverse Roots of AR Characteristic Polynomial


11/47


12/47

C%adro .aces i!&ertidas del Poli!o2io A%tore'resi&o

!ariab"es #nd$%enas& IPC' ' )1' y +.

,eza%os& 10

.a# M3d%los

0.9252 - 0.05152i 0.92/50.9252 0.05152i 0.92/5

-0./2800 - 0.//01i 0.9212

-0./2800 0.//01i 0.9212

-0.1//292 0.902/8i 0.9188

-0.1//292 - 0.902/8i 0.9188

0.8018 - 0.8215i 0.9181

0.8018 0.8215i 0.9181

-0.8182/ 0.5/5i 0.91/5

-0.8182/ - 0.5/5i 0.91/5

0.5/118 0.212i 0.91800.5/118 - 0.212i 0.9180

0.20/0 0.8/900i 0.91082/

0.20/0 - 0.8/900i 0.91082/

0.85 0.22500/i 0.90585

0.85 - 0.22500/i 0.90585

0.1020 0.5///i 0.89509

0.1020 - 0.5///i 0.89509

-0.020 0.88812i 0.8885/

-0.020 - 0.88812i 0.8885/

-0.5515 0.5191i 0.892-0.5515 - 0.5191i 0.892

0./58088 0.59/i 0.855/

0./58088 - 0.59/i 0.855/

-0.8/ 0.8/

0.122// 0.85/15i 0.8/895

0.122// - 0.85/15i 0.8/895

0.8/8 0.8/8

0.509 0./005i 0.8/

0.509 - 0./005i 0.8/

0./200 - 0.29059i 0.8101/

0./200 0.29059i 0.8101/

0.18/51 0.858i 0.80/

0.18/51 - 0.858i 0.80/

-0.888 0.1i 0.8010/1

-0.888 - 0.1i 0.8010/1

-0.52/5 0.59/20i 0.928//

-0.52/5 - 0.59/20i 0.928//

-0.10 0.2/00i 0.59199


13/47

-0.10 - 0.2/00i 0.59199

-0.28/ 0.5/80/i 0.0/51

-0.28/ - 0.5/80/i 0.0/51

-0.52 0.0852i 0./8/

-0.52 - 0.0852i 0./8/

0./128 0.050895i 0./19

0./128 - 0.050895i 0./19-0./0091 0./0091

-0.180 0.5/191i 0.5908/9

-0.180 - 0.5/191i 0.5908/9

-0.0192 0.0192

o root "ies outside t3e unit circ"e.

!4, satises t3e stabi"ity condition.


14/47

!4, ,esidua" 6eria" Corre"ation 7) Tests

u"" yot3esis& no seria" corre"ation at "a% order 3

Date& 12:01:10 Ti;e& 22&1

6a;"e& 2000)0 2010)08

Inc"uded obseruare ?it3 25 d=.

-.4

-.2

.0

.2

.4

5 10 15 20 25 30

Cor(DIPCDIPC(-i!!

-.4

-.2

.0

.2

.4

5 10 15 20 25 30

Cor("#DIPC(-i!!

-.4

-.2

.0

.2

.4

5 10 15 20 25 30

Cor(D$1DIPC(-i!!

-.4

-.2

.0

.2

.4

5 10 15 20 25 30

Cor("%DIPC(-i!!

-.4

-.2

.0

.2

.4

5 10 15 20 25 30

Cor("&DIPC(-i!!


15/47


16/47

10 15 20 25 30

Cor(DIPCDIPC(-i!!

-.4

-.2

.0

.2

.4

5 10 15 20 25 30

Cor(DIPC"#(-i!!

-.4

-.2

.0

.2

.4

5 10 15 20 25 30

Cor(DIPCD$1(-i!!

-.4

-.2

.0

.2

.4

5 10

Cor(D

10 15 20 25 30

Cor("#DIPC(-i!!

-.4

-.2

.0

.2

.4

5 10 15 20 25 30

Cor("#"#(-i!!

-.4

-.2

.0

.2

.4

5 10 15 20 25 30

Cor("#D$1(-i!!

-.4

-.2

.0

.2

.4

5 10

Cor("

10 15 20 25 30

Cor(D$1DIPC(-i!!

-.4

-.2

.0

.2

.4

5 10 15 20 25 30

Cor(D$1"#(-i!!

-.4

-.2

.0

.2

.4

5 10 15 20 25 30

Cor(D$1D$1(-i!!

-.4

-.2

.0

.2

.4

5 10

Cor(D

10 15 20 25 30

Cor("%DIPC(-i!!

-.4

-.2

.0

.2

.4

5 10 15 20 25 30

Cor("%"#(-i!!

-.4

-.2

.0

.2

.4

5 10 15 20 25 30

Cor("%D$1(-i!!

-.4

-.2

.0

.2

.4

5 10

Cor(

10 15 20 25 30

Cor("&DIPC(-i!!

-.4

-.2

.0

.2

.4

5 10 15 20 25 30

Cor("&"#(-i!!

-.4

-.2

.0

.2

.4

5 10 15 20 25 30

Cor("&D$1(-i!!

-.4

-.2

.0

.2

.4

5 10

Cor(

A'tocorrelations ith 2 )t*.+rr. ,o'n*s


17/47


18/47

5 30

-.4

-.2

.0

.2

.4

5 10 15 20 25 30

Cor(DIPC"&(-i!!

5 30

-.4

-.2

.0

.2

.4

5 10 15 20 25 30

Cor("#"&(-i!!

5 30-.4

-.2

.0

.2

.4

5 10 15 20 25 30

Cor(D$1"&(-i!!

5 30

-.4

-.2

.0

.2

.4

5 10 15 20 25 30

Cor("%"&(-i!!

5 30

-.4

-.2

.0

.2

.4

5 10 15 20 25 30

Cor("&"&(-i!!


19/47


20/47

AR Resi*'al eteros/e*asticity ests o Cross erms (only levels an* s'ares!

Date 120110 ime 221

)am6le 2000$03 2010$07

Incl'*e* o8servations 115

9oint test

C3i-s> d= Prob.

155.41 15:5 0.533

In*ivi*'al com6onents

De6en*ent R-s'are* ;(105

res1=res1 0.770072 0.2


21/47

Cuadro . Prueba )u"ti


22/47

!4, ,esidua" or;a"ity Tests

@rt3o%ona"ization& C3o"esAy (7utAeo3"

u"" yot3esis& residua"s are ;u"ti


23/47

!4, ran%er Causa"ity:E"ocA #Fo%eneity a"d Tests

Date& 12:01:10 Ti;e& 22&18

6a;"e& 2000)0 2010)08Inc"uded obser d= Prob.

1.1191 10 0.018)1 1.022 10 0.1

18.815 10 0.02+ 2.1/55 10 0.002

4"" 59.09/25 0 0.02/

Deendent d= Prob.

)1 8./59 10 0.58 10.9/01 10 0./0/

+ 12.51 10 0.2/2/

4"" 5.891/ 0 0./55

Deendent d= Prob.

IPC 9.215 10 0.5120

1.198 10 0.2128

1.1509 10 0.1//2

+ 1.9/2 10 0.1

4"" 51.1/9 0 0.1111

Deendent d= Prob.

IPC 8.095 10 0.5889

.2101 10 0.055

)1 10./521 10 0.85

+ .9581 10 0.890


24/47

4"" 2.5 0 0.9/

Deendent d= Prob.

DIPC 1.11 10 0.0//7 20.0128 10 0.0291

D)1 1.9 10 0.15

7 1.8510 10 0.055

4"" /.219 0 0.0089


25/47

C%adro ; Pr%eba de e


26/47


27/47

:2.1/58

(0.002*

12.50/

(0.2/2/1.9/2

(0.1

.9581

(0.89


28/47


29/47

GI, de IPC

-701 2 3 4 5 : 7 < 10 11 12

-701 2 3 4 5 : 7 < 10 11 12

-4

1 2 3 4 5 : 7 < 10 11 12

-4

1 2 3 4 5 : 7 < 10 11 12

-7

1 2 3 4 5 : 7 < 10 11 12

-7

1 2 3 4 5 : 7 < 10 11 12-3

1 2 3 4 5 : 7 < 10 11 12

-3

1 2 3 4 5 : 7 < 10 11 12

-.003

-.002

-.001

.000

.001

.002

.003

.004

2 4 7 10 12 14 1 17 20 22 24

Res6onse of DIPC to DIPC

-.003

-.002

-.001

.000

.001

.002

.003

.004

2 4 7 10 12 14 1

Res6onse of DIPC

-.003

-.002

-.001

.000

.001

.002

.003

.004

2 4 7 10 12 14 1 17 20 22 24

Res6onse of DIPC to D$1

-.003

-.002

-.001

.000

.001

.002

.003

.004

2 4 7 10 12 14 1

Res6onse of DIPC

-.003

-.002

-.001

.000

.001

.002

.003

.004

2 4 7 10 12 14 1 17 20 22 24

Res6onse of DIPC to "&

Res6onse to %enerali>e* ?ne ).D. Innovations @ 2 ).+.


30/47

-.003

-.002

-.001

.000

.001

2 4 7 10 12 14 1 17 20 22 24


31/47

10 11 1210 11 1210 11 1210 11 12

7 10 12 14 1 17 20 22 24

Res6onse of DIPC to "#

7 10 12 14 1 17 20 22 24

Res6onse of DIPC to "%

vations @ 2 ).+.


32/47


33/47

.551/5 5.1290 5.111252

0.0888122 ./1821 -0.0/09/ -0.251001/2 5.08299 5.101/01

0.05/9/ .5/259 -0.0109/8 0.005 5.010/529 5.15/02

0.055/8022 .298/ -0.00028981 0.282225 .90505 5.18/8

0.022/182 .5992 -0.0/2// 0.0850/15 .9959 5.1521

0.0252185 .5190/20 -0.011021/ 0.92/519 .9221/81 5.200980.029/ .8925 0.0115/22 -0.08/9/8 .881285/2 5.1/991

0.02/9///8 .2/852 0.02220/ 0.299/558 .850//5 5.28859

0.021/2/5 .19/11 -0.022185 -0./18005 .81508/ 5.220/21

0.02//109 .1/02 -0.059555/ 0.20011 .811102 5.22089

0.0/099 .82912 0.080895 0.090115 .518/5 5.12/021

0.022//8 .8288 0.0051/2 -0.282015 .220/9 5.2828

0.0150/1 .852/5 0.122181 0.2811111 ./9501089 5.2951

0.0109/05 .81101/52 0.00151/ -0.0/98/ ./28288 5.0229

0.00580909 .8009 0.01/120 0.281/55 ./00211/ 5.210/9

0.008580/ .85/151 0.015552 -0.09129 .//0/089 5.25/20.008/1 .828/908 -0.01898 -0.155208 ./591228 5.15089

0.011528 .8105/1 0.01582809 0.09202 .//8205 5.2529

0.01590 .85225/ 0.012//88 0.02/ .//121 5.095299

0.012999 .8292 0.0/01/95 0.0/025 ./298/28 5.019

0.015189 .8595 0.0289/8 0.01229 ./12158 5.2122

0.009159/ .8/0158 -0.0221809 -0.25/2981 ./0/1/9/9 5.00/029

0.0129/1 .9250512 0.0118 0.019/55 .59899 5.0/55//

0.00/18 .91998 0.019915 0.1290918 .558/89 5.0/98

0.000291 .91/91 -0.0189 -0.11999 .5510 5.2998195

0.009/158 .91/5928 0.0085501 0.28908 .5298 5.1/8//50.008955 .9182195 0.029102 -0.19/ .511/8/ 5.218

0.00/2/ .92128/9 0.0225209 -0.090010 .5/8915 5.1/290

0.00502525 .92519955 -0.000925 -0.28/8551 .551/91 5.2001285

0.009//018 .929/81 0.002999 -0.050591 .5152/5 5.2/90909

0.00855 .98/ -0.01/8/ 0.088 .519/12 5.591

0.00/551 .9998 0.018/ -0./28195 .50/521 5.0185/5

0.00/88559 .95915 -0.0118528 0.08// .511509 5.19521

0.00518/8/ .99//81 -0.0125//9 0.9052 .5112 5.81288/

0.0201511 5.091855 -0.0281/01 -0.2252/ .502029 5.55515

0.00///15 5.050200/ -0.08/28 -0.2/2998 .5009201/ 5.81

0.00288 5.0525 0.0220 -0.29/85 .5022 5.1/21/8

0.0091 5.055218 0.009580 0.0090// .501/ 5.1955

0.008/0 5.0580 0.02//5 0.010/ .52501 5.2895/

0.000952 5.0/1895 -0.0288/ 0.02//1 .59/58 5./281

0.005089 5.0/59115 0.0/892 -0.12/0995 .5298 5.8580/8

0.00555 5.0/9188 0.02 0.09218 .5/8915 5.8929

0.0055082 5.0295/1 -0.0080/ 0.02299 .59008 5.92


34/47

0.000/82 5.0/091 0.01/2/1 0.001858 .5502981 5./59

0.0021/9 5.0805995 0.0/91 0.0/8020/ .5580858 5.25911

0.00121521 5.080/1 -0.099/59/ -0.1919955 .59899 5./9598

0.000222 5.09052808 0.120909 0.155019 .5582882 5.195558

0.000208 5.091998 0.018029 0.0/1985 .5511/ 5.81588

0.000108 5.09858 -0.011/90 -0.0921102 .52/ 5.150.002222 5.1022/81 -0.015/90/ 0.000//99 .5//299 5.509//

-0.001281 5.10/50 0.05//21 -0.021509 .5519 5.2/252

-0.0009951 5.1105 0.0111 -0.010/9 .5995/ 5./911

-0.00125 5.11902/ -0.01859/8 0.02901 .551 5.02/

0.00/51 5.119220/ 0.019288 0.058829 .558/0255 5.8120

0.00029198 5.125209 0.0522 -0.180208 .5/29911 5./50/

0.001/ 5.128828 0.0158/ -0.02101 .50/822/ 5./8

0.002012 5.125/ -0.02/28 0.0/1802 .582529 5.505/

0.000880/ 5.10829/ -0.00219/92 0.095/ .59985/09 5.5//25

-0.00112/ 5.18/0121 0.059/ 0.102010/ .5988502/ 5.//8/8/-0.0005/5 5.10 0.0100/ -0.2/2005 .5990515 5.5098828

-0.000502 5.181001 0.02091 0.5/01951 ./0/921 5.8/882/

0.000/// 5.1528028/ 0.0/890 -0.218852 .595028 5.510918

0.005/8 5.1558 -0.0128998 0.1028009 .59198/2 5.501981

0.00881 5.1/25/8 0.0//908 -0.12/81/89 .581992 5.5852/9

0.00251098 5.1/22/99 0.01/1 0.010009 .5819015/ 5.592295

0.002959 5.121/19 -0.0199/ 0.1102/ .5950188 5./2/010/

0.001/ 5.1159 0.0182111 -0.1225992 .5955281 5.010/

0.001802 5.18215095 0.01515 0.0259/20 .58598 5.5159/2

0.00222 5.1812/89 0.010115 -0.0101/ .5/25/18 5./0/519/0.00952 5.191959/ 0.082285 0.282288 .501/5 5./028190/

0.001/255 5.2008/5 -0.01289 -0.20011/9 .5825 5./122151

0.001/581 5.205591/ 0.05/8/1 0.128 .511/81 5.5122101

0.002999 5.2108281 0.0282521 0.11210/1 .50522 5./102

-0.002//1 5.21598/9 0.02/558 -0.2058/0 .580052 5.955112

0.000801 5.22115529 -0.0025091 0.102/80 .5952208/ 5.///895

0.000925 5.22/21 0.0/021 0.00//88 .58/089 5.///5122

0.0095998 5.21581 -0.0858559 -0.12/5/252 .591208 5./110/

0.00/090 5.2/520 0.0558 0.12011 ./005911 5./195//1

0.00591 5.2188 0.0118525 -0.2821 .5908/8 5.2////

0.0022088 5.2/2599 -0.01591 0.2592/11 .585505 5./9/958

0.00228//2 5.2500 0.01991995 0.0051989 .592285/ 5.92225/

0.000158 5.2501 -0.00285/ 0.20919 ./0//90/ 5.02291

-0.0009/22 5.2/9/09 0.2521201 -0.2182/22 .5902 5.8/59/

-0.0019898 5.215982 0.00119/8 0.111/9 ./02//0/ 5.11959

-0.00221/ 5.255 0.005959 -0.22/9982 ./10081 5.///012

-0.0015 5.292/50 0.008111 0.121/ ./2115 5./2588


35/47

0.002//059 5.2829/588 0.010/ -0.0/2551/ ./898 5.81009

0.00/2218 5.28/851 0.011225/ 0.020812 ./80252 5.1195

0.005/ 5.28952 0.0089095 0.1/859 ./092/ 5.85150/

0.0081/89 5.292818 0.01/05 0.0520 ./8582 5.858

0.0055/1 5.295/902 0.0081815/ 0.10/055 .//0829 5.9191

0.002551 5.2982 0.018815 -0.182215 ./51/ 5.9201250.005/021 5.008505/ 0.002899 -0.09222 .//22119 5.81512

0.00//890 5.0012 0.02011 0.01108// ./5528/ 5.805592

0.00/ 5.9 0.02159/19 0./8125// ./592951 5.9025/5

0.00091 5.5519 -0.00010/ -0.095/005/ .//0/995 5./91911

0.0118005 5.2255 0.0201205 0.00211/2 .//001 5.//2

0.011905/ 5.8/988 0.02818 0.01/098 ./0959 5./25881

0.01259/1 5.951 0.0252/ -0.09//9// .//0/1// 5.25/089

0.00985189 5.5055 0.011/15 0.0501982/ .//5898 5.5191

0.008820/ 5.512251 0.028102 0.09/121 .//8205 5.//80

0.005852 5.5191/8 0.0210085 -0.05552 ./5251 5.89590220.00505 5.52500 0.01208/ -0.002/15 ./11/915 5./89/

0.001/1/ 5.502/82 0.00/5 0.10009559 .5/88/ 5.29929

-0.000/1921 5.5551 0.015225 -0.12951 .559508 5.815519

0.0099 5.519/9 0.05/092 0.0/99 .5555 5.90915

0.00/19 5.5158 -0.0/0/88 -0.12/21/ .5/582 5.800/0182

0.0029218 5.5/08/ -0.00921/ 0.08908 .52501 5.//022

0.00202 5.58/5/2 -0.0001 0.119281 .511958 5.590/15

0.00589 5.580099 0.00/95 0.0251// .525/912 5.595552

0.0019128 5.580919 0.00/08058 -0.11289 .5/2/908 5.582289

0.0011/01 5.58189 0.0052210/ 0.2282058 .5/802/ 5.181880.00210019 5.5819901 0.0018/8 0.02209 .51098 5.828021

0.00080199 5.582// -0.0020001/ -0.121850 .5858 5./9202199

0.009022 5.5802/2 -0.008 0.051508 .589/50 5.5/981/

0.008028 5.598512 0.021/9/1 0.0880/ ./00//00 5.598052

0.0011/9 5.59582 0.0298559 -0.0090812 ./0058/ 5.05585

0.00/2/801 5.5998 0.028825/ -0.1/0151 .58885 5.99819

0.0098 5./1081 0.000/112 0.000918 .5/198 5.8//0

0.00155/ 5./1519 0.0208018 0.01/9992 .55208581 5.89018

-0.00090 5./2088 0.0215/ 0.05950/ .5529/5 5.89125

0.0020/5 5./2882 0.000282 0.0918/ .5582 5.912/2

0.0021819 5./91 0.01580/ 0.095922 .52 5.88295/

0.00212911 5./559 0.0019505 -0.020/50/ .51200/ 5.91119

0.0010/9 5./029 0.0180 -0.1255185 .58901 5.88281

0.008/9 5./8901 0.01951 -0.08815/ .5595501 5.81//1


36/47

Desco2$osicio! de la Varia!#a @

3orizonte de tie;o 12 ;eses

IPC W M1 G Q

IPC /5.225 5.2598/ .8/89 10.81 1.559

W .9855 .851 /.1998 .95 10.0/

M1 21.599 1.115 8.80/92 1.80/11/ 10.//G 1/.585 .801 9.1/0/ /5.89/ ./1

Q 10./8/ 10.59 .19/02 19./9/2 51.5/2

Desco2$osicio! de la Varia!#a @

3orizonte de tie;o 2 ;eses

IPC W M1 G Q

IPC 52.0828 11.5/ .0/1/55 12.858 1/.58//9

W 2.581 0.8//5 25.5205 8./98 11.2/0M1 1.2095 1.585/ 5.2502 .29059 12./80

G 1/.9 /.1915 11.598 /0.15 5.152

Q 12.05 1.91 15.//9 1/.800 1.18

!ariance Deco;osition o= DIPC&

Period 6.#. DIPC D)1 D DDG

1 0.908/2/ 100 0 0 0

2 1.0091 90.18 0.918/ ./89 1.92

1.08829/ 8.5/99 0.8909 .00/55 1.225

1.1/2 8./8 2.01599 5./189 1.802/0/

5 1.15518 82./81 1.98/0 /./9/08 1.850028

/ 1.1521 81.82 2.12289/ /.12509 1.82282

1.18219 9.0128/ 2.89855 8./551 1./2

8 1.228/89 .25 5.8585/ 11.022 1./0

9 1.2098 2.9529 /.100/9 11.11221 1./809

10 1.2/18 /9.2/801 5.91589/ 11.0/2/ .08

11 1./0/8 /5./191 5.99/99 15.808/ 2.915

12 1.08/8 /2./9 5.1182 18.99259 .2/5

!ariance Deco;osition o= D)1&


1 1/./ 0.50955 99.9025 0 0


37/47

2 18.5// 1./1/0 91.80 0.0502/ 5.098/

18/.0 .0012 89./2909 0.02 5.22/51

190./ .09928 8.8291 0.218/ /.0209

5 19./2 .11285 8.82252 0.5025 8./9/129

/ 195.//2 .022 8.221 0.52/ 8.822

19/.2 .0/2/2 8.01059 0.51818 8.9508918 199./ .8/ 80.52109 0.52558 10.09/

9 20.18/1 5.//89 8.1852 0./09 10.215

10 20.51 ./5291 .9209 1.0899 10.085

11 211.5 9.02518 .1/188 1.8029 10./9292

12 215.022 9.5/81 .00/ 2.01//0 10./2

!ariance Deco;osition o= D&


1 /.1/8/ 0.5/995 .0982/ 95.508 02 /./012 0.80/ /.//98 91.98 0.00022

.185/1 8.5/2 5.200// 81.19189 2.158

.2/81 8.589 5.8195 81.09905 2.215/5

5 .28120 8.581 5.8128/5 81.1109/ 2.2089

/ .8258 8.189 5.5/ 9.51252 2.52

.591/ 9.1//1/ .185 /.0109 2.88/2

8 .1//1 10.51812 8.15851 .05812 .52158

9 8.0105/ 1./1919 9.188 /8.12/11 ./2/

10 8.2512/9 1/.8108 9.1128 //.188 ./5081

11 8.90221 20.098 8.29/25 /./95 .1/9/12 9.221 2.0905 .822/ 59.9/5 .108

!ariance Deco;osition o= DDG&


1 12.9882 2.5828 .195/9 0.1/1 92.28529

2 1.022/ .9119 .122 1.5151 80.8819

1.992 .1111/ ./1/25 1.898 9.992

1.898/ .05 5.50208 2.0085 5.1/15

5 15.02/89 .2/5/1 .00/89 2.0/82/ ./2

/ 15.202 9./280 /.88292 2.0595 1./9812

15.8/2 9.89/ .0 2.50/85 0.0199

8 1/.088 9.8 10.92 2.208 /5.929

9 1/.28859 9.11/ 11./5 2./010/ /.2/15

10 1/.5/9 9.9//9 11.992 .0/122 /2.008

11 1/.82/15 10./55 11.1/108 ./599/ /0.51

12 1.5552 9.918251 11.22 /.2191 58.0288


38/47

!ariance Deco;osition o= DI4#&


1 .110// 0.11092 0.25/ 0.1955/8 .159059

2 .88/2/ 0.885 0.5082 1.9582 .912 .55 1.8525 9.89229 1.05 /.9529/

.821 1.2158 10.08/ 2.2051 /.5180/

5 .81/5 2.122025 10.108 2.182 /.80929

/ .8/999 2.//18/ 10.12 2.291 .82011

.92125 .999 9.9/928 2.59/ .1828

8 .98502 .098019 10.288 2.008 .950/22

9 5.02805 .9211/ 10.12825 2.89/09 8.2895/

10 5.1011 .0/2 12.02 2.8/055 10.1025

11 5.29005 5.80/55 12./81 .0108 11.21809

12 5.128 5.8580 12.59 .2/05 11.10/9

C3o"esAy @rderin%& DIPC D)1 D DDG DI4#


39/47


40/47

!ariance Deco;osition o= DIPC&

Period 6.#. DIPC 7

1 0.0028 100 02 0.0052 8.0951 0.291559

0.0012 .81 0.00//

0.0095/ /./2212 1.259

5 0.0005 /5.0011 2.005/5

/ 0.000/2 /5.19/ 2.05

0.001 /2./105 1.9/511

8 0.001/ /2.0/9 1.98815

9 0.0019 /1.99 2.0009/9

10 0.0021 /2.51/9 2.008585

11 0.00258 /1.9808 2.0188512 0.0021 /1.0/0 2.00/1

1 0.0028 /0.9012 2.005

1 0.00295 /0./22 1.99/2/

15 0.0001 /0.5151 2.08/2

1/ 0.002 /0.89 2.101/81

1 0.002 /0./05 2.109/1

18 0.0028 /0.099 2.11925

19 0.002 /0.21 2.212/

DI4# 20 0.00 /0.05 2.2/59

21 0.005 /0.95 2.290120 22 0.00/ /0.28 2.508

2.55028 2 0.0081 /0.8/1 2.2

5.912088 2 0.009 /0.51/1 2.1/15/

/.9111/

/.819 !ariance Deco;osition o= 7&

.50888 Period 6.#. DIPC 7

.580

.0591 1 0.019/ 1/.8/80/ 8.119

8.188 2 0.019/95 29./05 /8.59958

10.090 0.02252 8.519 58.118/1

9./018 0.02/ 0.9 5.18

9.10/82 5 0.02/95 0.15901 9./18

/ 0.02888 8.25/2 .10195

0.00 .8808 .91

DI4# 8 0.0191 8./ 1.2/8

9 0.005 0.19 9.055

0 10 0.0/5 1.098/ /./82


41/47

1.25/2/ 11 0.058/ 1./92/ .59

1./55 12 0.0 2.90209 2.2/52

1.9181 1 0.0855 .8/11 0.801

1.910/ 1 0.095 ./2215 29.9801

.1/289/ 15 0.0019 5.2809 29.9/9

.09 1/ 0.00/8 5./015 29.0/095.25/225 1 0.0122 /.552 28./211

.819819 18 0.018 .1081 28.090

5.025 19 0.022 .98 2.589

5.25095/ 20 0.00 8./0 2/.9099

5.12 21 0.0/9 9.02 2/.5

22 0.0152 9.8159 2/.1101

2 0.055 50.2/1 25.8/28

DI4# 2 0.090 50./05 25.55

0 !ariance Deco;osition o= D)1&0.985/ Period 6.#. DIPC 7

2.5/91

2.2522 1 0.05/8 5.8022 5.981281

2.1/ 2 0.091 5.88299 /.0289

.11/02 0.0985 5.8192 5.9/89

.8929/ 0.0005 5.582//9 5.9//

.5/5 5 0.00599 5.9195 5.8512

./1 / 0.01122 5.2202 5.09208

.1881 0.015 .08501 5.29195

.5285/8 8 0.0282 .11/ 5.8291.9/55/ 9 0.02/8 .000 5.829/8

10 0.0/58 .509988 5.0205

11 0.082/ .55201 5.055

DI4# 12 0.009 .5902 5.95159

1 0.0 .90221 5.9/12

0 1 0.0519 .99099 /.00595

9.19589 15 0.052 8.5// 5.9819

9./228 1/ 0.055 8.55/ /.00059

10.2805 1 0.05/1 8.59 5.99821

9.995898 18 0.05//9 8.550 /.0111

9.5/92 19 0.0580/ 8.5/009 /.0//5/

9.8/51 20 0.05858 8.8/120/ /.05851/

11.91/21 21 0.0589 8.855/8 /.089002

11./88 22 0.0/002 8.89088 /.08/9/

1.1 2 0.0/01 8.90/9 /.0821//

1.8012 2 0.0/10 8.911 /.0/8

1.595


42/47

!ariance Deco;osition o= 7&

Period 6.#. DIPC 7

DI4#

1 0.115 1.00981/ 8.05/

9/.259 2 0.190005 .0252 8.05915

9.9/ 0.2099 10.1802 9.50/2980.959 0.2085 10.5958 9.///5

9.1 5 0.2191 1.559 9.1158

8.55/89 / 0.2221/ 15.9 9.89/2

.00599 0.22/8 15.90525 9.52

5.882 8 0.21988 1/.9929 9.1090/5

.9/5/8 9 0.29/ 1.0/95 9.1019

./598 10 0.255/ 1.52919 9.820//2

/9.8019 11 0.25//89 18.15209 9.9/55

//.9912 12 0.25802 18.081 9.99981

/.2255 1 0.259091 18.092 9.922581 0.2/00 18.80// 9.8510/

15 0.2/129 19.0229 9.910

1/ 0.2/19 18.9/5 9.8921

1 0.2/29/8 19.210 9.88/9

18 0.2/01 19.2285 9.8/02

19 0.2/05 19.01 9.89929

20 0.2/2/ 19.9815 9.851229

21 0.2/ 19./981 9.89///

22 0.2/25 19.8/0 9.821/

2 0.2/855 19.8898 9.825/82 0.2/519 19.555 9.81/28

!ariance Deco;osition o= 7+&

Period 6.#. DIPC 7

1 0.009 .208/ 1.890

2 0.015051 5.5928/ 0.8821

0.01919 /.90 1.059

0.0210/2 .5/8 1.0111

5 0.0225 8.010/ 0.9090/

/ 0.02125 10.292 0.80/

0.02/0/ 15.1/8/ 0.81125

8 0.0225/ 21.0815 0.59

9 0.0289 2/.2/ 1.12

10 0.002/ 1.02 2./9/

11 0.021 5.92 .9080

12 0.059/ 0.15189 5.2/9


43/47

1 0.0228 ./19 /.859

1 0.09918 5.9/ 8.19/

15 0.02251 .092 9.///805

1/ 0.01 8.5/01 10./25

1 0.0//8 9./225 10.92

18 0.08/82 50.0/0/ 11.258/19 0.050181 50.512 11.5019

20 0.0512/ 51.15/1 11./102

21 0.052099 51./9/2 11.5/5

22 0.0521 52.1889 11.922

2 0.0518 52.5115 11.

2 0.05598 52.1922 11.101

C3o"esAy @rderin%& DIPC 7 D)1 7 7+


44/47

D)1 7 7+

0 0 010.128 2.8825 2.9511

11.985 2.111/1 10./82

1.01928 2.5518// 15.509

1.052 2.8858 1/.0198

1.9229 2.995 15.9/22

1.5191 .99/ 18.55

1./50 ./5// 18.1852

1.289 ./8985 18.0508

1.009 .//8 1.5/55

1.0/99 .5029/ 1./2881.202 5.02189/ 1./9258

1.25/1 5.20/1 1./8

1.2081 5./8185 1.5251

1.2511 5.///95 1.02

1.1 5./229 1./19

1.512 5./1299 1./

1.598 5./1/08 1.198

1.528 5./985 1.2812

1.5 5./51922 1.19851

1.5259 5./198 1.1/91.89 5./50 1.098

1.99 5./22 1.0//5

1.052 5./1550 1.085

D)1 7 7+

0 0 0

0.5500 0.9255 0.0008

1.19909 1.550 0.5528

1.90802 1./1891 1.98

5.589 2.92 1.80259

9.5/8/ .22// 1.5205

12.5/ .80/08/ 1.59981

1.112 .52/1 1.55/2

1.90/95 .8209 1.580

1.89/28 5.92 1.992


45/47

1./1 5.921 .1/88

1.012 /.95/5/8 .12502

1.111 .02/8 .55051

1.298 .09558 .99/

1.1/ /.899 5.28//

1.08 /.59 5.09901.105 /./00828 5.2801

1.085 /.5008/1 5.189

1.18585 /.85/1 .9912/1

1.208/ /.229/02 .855/9

1.0/85 /.0/0/5 .8089

1.2915 5.9/110 .82158

1.1//82 5.851 .855

1.0/5 5.8/ .902

D)1 7 7+

88./1 0 0

81.2258 .0//// .9592

9.882/ .950 .891

.590 /.29298 .09

/.55009 .0/9 .05

.// .9515 5.89/5

.29 8.095/ 5.888

1.2/15 8.00/9 .1/11/8.012 9.95551 8.998

/.229 10.8282 8./59/

//./88 11.0059 8.9999

//.0/108 10.99/ 9.2198

/.21/ 12.1108 9.2218

/.091 12.289 9.//02

/.5982 12./091 9.52//

/.05 12.1/ 9./909

/2.9/12 12.21 9.5919

/2.88192 12.0/9/ 9.889/

/2.20/5 12./102 9.82591

/2./109 12./// 9.85/92

/2.52 12.025 9.8295

/2.98 12./999 9.92882

/2.1592 12.19 9.91828

/2.121/ 12.9/5 9.9099


46/47

D)1 7 7+

0.99 90.199 0

2.9558 81./8 0.28218

.20901 1.80/1/ 1.018.85 /9./1// 2.55

9.005 /5.10//2 .1/22

10.1128 /1.99 .05529

9.9/08 /0.19/9 ./8/

9.518 58.590/ 5.855

9.0/88 58./01 /.2185

1.581 52.1/0 /./02

1.8// 51.1/01 /.88828

1.829/2 50.19 ./5/

1.8122 50.59 .0/111.828 50.22208 .291211

1./9/ 50.1828 .2/2

1.9081 50.02815 .155/

1.9055 9.109 .8121

1.9591/ 9.51/ .2992

1.9925 9.92 .2/

1.0059 9./89 ./19

1.0191 9.1512 .5/2/

1.0501 9.2928/ .898/

1.058 9.255 .951.0/ 9.1/1 .881

D)1 7 7+

1./111 2.988 89.855

1.01 /.88222 8.90129

1./0098 1.92 .05808

1.8//8 15.98/ .2/

1.21/12 15.895 .05518

1.011 1.85/11 0.025/8

1.0202 19.2/25 /.5/52

1.28// 18.5292 58.5/8

1.529/92 1.090 5.9/92

1.9088/ 15.201 9.912

1.1105 1.805 5.892/

1.2/9 11.8112 1./55


47/47

2.0015/ 10.192 .55

.125 9.02 .918

.0/28/ 8.12258 1.1015

5.0//8/ .52/8 28.521

/.599022 /./81951 2/.1951

8.021/1 /.151518 2.2/28.90012 5.9008 2.02/8

9.010 5.5811 22.5

9.818 5.19/ 21.8851

9.5212 5.20 21.5552

9.8881 5.1/01/ 21.95

9.2//8 5.08/5 21.5805

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